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Contact: Timothy C. Mack, Managing Principal
Email tcmack333@gmail.com
Mobile: 202-431-1652
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
A World on Fire: New Report from AAI
Foresight
Freeland, WA —
May 1, 2015. Megafires are on the rise
worldwide, due not only to climate change but also to approaches to combatting
fires that paradoxically increase their likelihood, according to a new report published by AAI Foresight Inc. Wildland fire managers need a new paradigm that
proceeds from building a better relationship with nature rather than
perpetually fighting a war on it. The focus should be on resilience rather than
combat.
“A World on Fire” was
prepared by futurists Robert L. Olson (Institute for Alternative Futures) and David
N. Bengston (U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, StrategicForesight and Rapid Response Group). It is the second report in AAI Foresight
Inc.’s Foresight Reports initiative to produce in-depth foresight analysis on
significant issues while demonstrating the futurist methodologies used.
The report summarizes the findings of a Foresight Panel
convened in 2013 to address the growing incidence of wildland fires worldwide
and to propose new strategies for managing them. The panel comprised seven
foresight professionals—Peter C. Bishop, Jamais Cascio, James Dator, Elizabeth
Hand, Michael Marien, Jonathan Peck, and David Rejeski—and two U.S. Forest
Service experts on wildfire management—Sarah McCaffrey (Northern Research
Station) and John Phipps (Rocky Mountain Research Station).
Panel facilitators Olson and Bengston outlined three
scenarios to provide a framework for the participants’ deliberations:
·
In a Decline/Collapse scenario, governmental and
economic resources are stretched, forcing communities to rely on
self-management of fire issues.
·
In a Moderate Growth scenario, climate change
and population growth in high-risk areas accelerate, contributing to increased
incidence of megafires.
·
In a Technological Transformation scenario,
progress in renewable energy and manufacturing technologies lead to high growth
but more efficiency; society is mobilized to deal with climate change.
“The bottom line of the panelists’ thinking is that, as
conditions change over time, the existing fire suppression approach will fail
across the whole range of plausible future conditions, whereas the emerging
fire resilience approach works in all those conditions,” the authors write.
“Foresight Reports aim to reveal the methodology of
professional futurist analysis and not just predict the future or prescribe
actions,” said Cynthia G. Wagner, editor of the series. Wagner is the former
editor of The Futurist magazine and serves as AAI Foresight’s consulting
editor. “‘A World on Fire’ describes the process that the Foresight Panel
undertook and the distinctive characteristics of the scenarios that panelists
weighed in their discussions, which took place over a six-month period. The
process demonstrated true collaborative thinking.”
AAI Foresight Inc., Experts in Strategic Foresight, provides issues identification and
tracking, strategic planning, organizational development, messaging, marketing,
technological assessment, and strategic services for a broad range of clients.
“A World on Fire” is available to Foresight Signals readers
as a free PDF download, as is AAI Foresight’s first report, “The Future of
Retail Marketing” by Timothy C. Mack. Visit
Foresight Reports at AAI Foresight Inc.
- AAI -
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