Vol. 1, No. 23 | October
7, 2015 | AAI Foresight
News for the Foresight Community:
> Signal of the Month: Risk Radar
> Report: Arizona Comes of Age
> Debatable Futures: Peak Car
> Futurists in the News: Genevieve Bell, Ramez Naam
> Upcoming Meetings: Of Living Rooms and Restaurants
> Mack Report: Africa 2030
Signal of the Month: Risk Radar
What’s Next trends report publisher Richard Watson has compiled a matrix for
assessing the probability and impact of global risks in a variety of STEEP
categories (society, technology, economy, environment, and politics). Among his
Risk Radar’s “101 ways the world could change—or possibly end” and how
concerned we should be:
1. Don’t Worry:
African disunity, weaponization of near-space, moral collapse, decrease in
longevity due to sedentary lifestyles.
2. Keep Calm: declining
urban air quality, rogue politician, information overload, decline of practical
skills.
3. Pay Attention:
ocean acidification, robot uprising, globalization backlash, “OMG Kim
Kardashian runs for US Presidency” (ranked higher in impact than “Failure of
global governance”).
4. Find the Exit:
loss of biodiversity, income/wealth polarization, EU collapse, state-sponsored
cybercrime, severe water shortages.
Watson assures us that the end of the world (or of humanity)
is far from probable, and so he advises us to “drink lots of water, wear
sunscreen and try to be a good human.”
Details: Download
the high-resolution Risk
Radar infographic
from Now and Next. Thanks to “signal”
spotter Jay Gary.
Signals: risk
assessment, STEEP analysis
Report: Arizona Comes of Age
The Center for the
Future of Arizona (CFA) has released its report on the major challenges
facing the state and approaches to meeting them, starting with more active
communications between residents and their government leaders. Citizen
participation rates in Arizona are in the bottom quartile nationally, notes the report,
titled “Vision 2025: Arizona Comes of Age.”
Describing itself as a “do tank” rather than a “think tank,”
CFA focused its report on creating a blueprint for action based on what
citizens want for the future of the state: high-quality jobs, high-quality education
and training for those jobs, and development to protect the natural environment
while improving built infrastructures.
“Arizona has all of the elements right now to come of age,” CFA
director Lattie Coor told Arizona
Public Media, adding that the state has the characteristics “that will make it
one of the most significant, competitive places in the modern economy.”
Debatable Futures: Peak Car
Quoting DaVinci
Institute senior futurist Thomas Frey as
saying “wealthy economies have already hit peak car,” Manhattan Institute senior
fellow Mark Mills dismisses the
assessment as “poppycock” in his October
1 Wall Street Journal op-ed.
Frey and other trend watchers have observed the millennial
generation’s preference for urban lifestyles that reduce the need for car
ownership. Such preferences have made possible the phenomenal rise of
car-sharing services like Uber. But Mills cites recent upticks in millennials
moving to the suburbs and buying cars, perhaps as a result of simply growing up
and getting better-paying jobs.
Mills also argues that, as a society, the United States has
not reached peak driving; rather, gasoline demand is approaching a record 9.2
million barrels a day.
Comment: Certainly
low prices can account for today’s accelerating demand for gasoline. One
wonders whether—when such demand pulls prices back up—the millennials’ robust affection
for tech innovation and social networking will fulfill Frey’s forecast in the
long run.
What say you? Peak car: now, soon, someday, or never?
Read: “We’re
a Long Way From ‘Peak Car’” by Mark Mills, Wall Street Journal (October 1, 2015).
Signals: automobiles,
millennial generation, sharing economy, urban lifestyle, values
Futurists in the News
“Thank you,
technology!” Part 1: Described as the Portland, Oregon, area’s most-famous
futurist, Intel’s Genevieve Bell, vice
president in charge of "Corporate Sensing & Insights," was interviewed
about her work on computer-human relations for Willamette Week (September 22). One surprising moment in her
research, she says, came when she found herself thanking a computerized device.
“The timer went off, and I asked Alexa [Amazon Echo] to stop the timer,” she says.
“The timer stopped and I said, ‘Thanks!’ Then I went out of the house thinking,
‘Oh my God, I’m a complete idiot.’ And then I did it again a half-hour later.” Read “Hotseat:
Intel Futurist Genevieve Bell.”
“Thank you,
technology!” Part 2: Former “Microsoftie” and author Ramez Naam was among the technology futurists offering their views for
a recent GeekWire
panel on the pros and cons of technology. While acknowledging negative
impacts of human progress, such as climate change, Naam said he is optimistic
about the future: “In the last few decades we have cut poverty in half, hunger
in half, more people live in democracy than ever before,” he said. “It’s
undeniable to me that the world is getting much better. My best bet for 2030 is
that the world will be substantially better than today.” Read: “Asteroids,
plagues and why science needs more sex appeal: Our futurists take on the good
and bad in tech” by Molly Brown, GeekWire
(October 2, 2015).
Upcoming Meetings: Of Living Rooms and Restaurants
The Electronic Living
Room: New York Times
futurist-in-residence Michael A. Rogers
will deliver the opening keynote address at CEDIA Expo 2015, offering insights
on the near-term future of home technology. Among the innovations homeowners
can expect in their future living rooms, Rogers predicts, are floor-to-ceiling
TVs offering virtual reality and telepresence—along with virtual shopping that
he describes as the Home Shopping Network “on steroids.”
CEDIA Expo 2015 will be held October 14-17 at the Kay Bailey
Hutchison Convention Center in Dallas. Details:
CEDIA Expo 2015. Also visit CE
Pro.
Food Trends on the
Menu: The National Restaurant
Association will convene in San Diego October 27-28 for the Restaurant
Innovation Summit. Among the futurists scheduled to discuss food innovations
and trends are Edie Weiner, CEO of Future Hunters, and digital futurist
Amy Webb, founder and CEO of Webbmedia Group, who will serve a
presentation on the top tech trends for restaurant operators.
The summit will explore innovative on-demand food-delivery
services such as Postmates, Caviar, DoorDash and delivery.com, as well as
data analytics for marketers and mobile-payment systems. And IBM’s famed Watson,
or “Chef Watson,” will pair its “knowledge of food chemistry and taste
preferences with what it [has] learned about recipes to generate new and
unexpected flavor and ingredient combinations,” according to a press statement.
Details: National
Restaurant Association
Mack Report: Africa 2030
The recent rise (and more recent decline) of China as an
economic powerhouse has overshadowed prospects for Africa, observes AAI
Foresight managing principal Timothy C.
Mack in his latest blog. He writes: “Africa is expected to quadruple in
population over the next 90 years, with its greatest economic and political
growth likely in North Africa.”
Companies such as Microsoft have thus become more actively
engaged in Africa’s development, focusing not only on Africans as consumers but
also on developing the population as workers and investment partners. Read Africa 2030.
Signals: Africa, developing
economies, education, technology
__________
Send us your signals!
News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting
editor.
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that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.
__________
© 2015 AAI Foresight
Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI
Foresight
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#1172
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