Vol.
3, No. 6 | April 2017 | AAI
Foresight
WFSF Names 2017 Futures Fellows
The
World
Futures Studies Federation
has named 15 new Futures Fellows, an honorary title that confers
higher status of WFSF membership in recognition of significant
contributions to the field and/or the organization. The 2017 honorees
are:
-
Guillermina Baena-Paz,
IAPEM, Mexico
- Robert Burke, Futureware Consulting and Melbourne Business School, Australia
- Stuart Candy, Situation Lab, United States
- Patrick Corsi, Cayak Innov, Belgium
- Natalie Dian, The Vision Centre, Sweden
- Ted Fuller, Futures, United Kingdom
- Dana Klisanin, Evolutionary Guidance Media, United States
- Tom Lombardo, Center for Future Consciousness, United States
- Pero Mićić, Future Management Group, Germany
- Victor Vahidi Motti, Vahid Think Tank, Iran
- Erik Øverland, Subito, Norway
- Mei-Mei Song, Tamkang University, Taiwan
- Maya Van Leemput, Agence Future, Belgium
- Verne Wheelwright, Personal Futures Network, United States
- David Lindsay Wright, Text-Tube Futures Studio, Australia
- Robert Burke, Futureware Consulting and Melbourne Business School, Australia
- Stuart Candy, Situation Lab, United States
- Patrick Corsi, Cayak Innov, Belgium
- Natalie Dian, The Vision Centre, Sweden
- Ted Fuller, Futures, United Kingdom
- Dana Klisanin, Evolutionary Guidance Media, United States
- Tom Lombardo, Center for Future Consciousness, United States
- Pero Mićić, Future Management Group, Germany
- Victor Vahidi Motti, Vahid Think Tank, Iran
- Erik Øverland, Subito, Norway
- Mei-Mei Song, Tamkang University, Taiwan
- Maya Van Leemput, Agence Future, Belgium
- Verne Wheelwright, Personal Futures Network, United States
- David Lindsay Wright, Text-Tube Futures Studio, Australia
“All the new
Fellows far exceeded the minimum requirements set out in the current
WFSF Constitution,” the organization states on its website. The
2017 fellows join 30 previously recognized WFSF members who were
selected on the basis of their professional futures activity and
original contributions to the knowledge base of futures studies.
Seasteading: A Blue Revolution or a Bluetopia?
Book
Review by Randall Mayes
Seasteading: How Floating Nations Will Restore the Environment, Enrich the Poor,Cure the Sick, and Liberate Humanity from Politicians
by Joe Quirk with Patri Friedman. Free Press/Simon and Schuster.
March 2017. 384 pages. $27. ISBN 9781451699265.
In
Seasteading,
Joe Quirk and Patri Friedman of the Seasteading Institute
[https://www.seasteading.org/]
envision a new frontier—a future with homes and even cities located
on the oceans. The idea of living on the ocean does not appeal to
everyone, and many are skeptical.
Although
it is not a novel idea, the authors have acted on their vision by
developing The Floating City Project. Its three primary objectives
are to provide evidence of market demand, produce designs and a
feasibility study, and find host nations to harbor and offer
political autonomy within their protected, territorial waters.
In
the book, the authors
provide
interesting discussions of
the feasibility study, which outlines a business model and
proactively addresses the concerns of skeptics. The Dutch firm
DeltaSync performed the study, which was funded by philanthropist
Peter Thiel and crowdfunding and is posted on
The Seasteading Institute’s website.
For
those who are drawn to the concept, it is typically for two reasons.
One is that 2050 is the estimated date when the Earth’s population
reaches 8 billion. From a societal perspective, some people are
interested because of the related issues with food, water, energy,
and rising sea levels. Since we are running out of land, alternatives
are appealing. Water covers over two-thirds of the Earth’s surface.
On several occasions, the authors refer to the Earth as “Planet
Ocean.”
The
other reason is an increasing discontent with politics and
government. Those who have given up on the idea of their government
changing are intrigued by the possibility of living in an
autonomous seasteading community.
Fortunately
for the authors, they did not have to start engineering their
seastead community from scratch. Research by oil and gas companies
for platforms and by the cruise ship industry, along with maritime
law, provided a framework upon which they could adapt seastead
communities. Graphics from the
design contest for seastead communities are also available on The
Seasteading Institute’s website.
For
platform structures, the construction companies will use three main
materials--steel, composites, and concrete. Why concrete? It is
durable, and since steel corrodes, the concrete can shield the steel
from the harsh environment. With its low center of gravity, it also
provides stability. For those concerned about hurricanes
and tsunamis, Shell
engineers have built what is the currently the largest floating
structure that can withstand Category 5 weather conditions.
In
certain parts of the world, pirates are a concern. While the authors
cannot be responsible for crimes and acts of terror, they partner
with countries with sites that are protected and advise others to
avoid seasteads in areas such as the Somalia coast.
For
the initial host country, the
French Polynesian government has signed an agreement with The
Seasteading Institute to create a legal framework for the development
of The Floating Island Project. The Seasteading Institute has formed
Blue Frontiers to construct the Floating Island Project, which will
also advance French Polynesia’s Blue Economy initiative and provide
a backup plan for countries such as Tahiti as sea levels rise.
While
oil company platforms and cruise ships currently provide amenities
such as medical
services, other
aspects of seastead living remain experimental. Seasteading could
accelerate innovation in Silicon Valley for self-sufficient and
sustainable food systems such as aquaculture and hydroponics. It
could also speed up the development of bioengineered
microbes to produce fuel, increase the yield of sea plants, and abate
pollution. In the future, the authors expect seastead communities to
power themselves
almost entirely with renewables, such as solar,
wind, and wave energy.
Similar
to the settling of the western United States, thousands of
individuals could potentially migrate to seasteading communities.
Initially, the purchase of housing units could be relatively
expensive, and banks would probably not be eager to provide
financing. Rather than purchasing a unit, some communities could
provide the option for modular and mobile platforms with living
quarters for renting.
Each
future seasteading community/city will have its own unique
personality. For permanent seasteaders, citizenship is a complex
legal issue. Depending on their home country’s laws, they could
either retain their citizenship and pay taxes or renounce it. The
authors do not discuss how employment,
taxes, or
public
amenities that governments traditionally provide might work in
seasteads. Attorneys and legal scholars have designed a portfolio of
possible legal systems. Rather than assess these constitutions
themselves, the authors will let seastead communities determine which
ones attract immigrants.
Randall
Mayes
is a
technology analyst and author of Revolutions:
Paving the Way for the Bioeconomy
(Logos Press, 2012). He may be contacted at randy.mayes@duke.edu.
Resources
“Government of French Polynesia Signs Agreement with Seasteaders for Floating Island Project” (January 17, 2017).
New Future Fiction and Nonfiction
-
The Future: A Very Short Introduction
by Jennifer Gidley, president of the World Futures Studies Federation
and adjunct professor at the Institute for Sustainable Futures at UTS
Sydney. Oxford University Press, March 2017. An overview of how we
came to view the linearity of time, extend it forward in order to
predict or control it, and imagine a multiplicity of outcomes.
Concludes with an exploration of “the grand global futures
challenges.”
-
New York 2140,
a novel by Kim Stanley Robinson, multiple-award-winning and
bestselling science-fiction author. Orbit/Hatchette Book Group, March
2017. Rising sea levels have turned the streets of New York into
canals and its skyscrapers into islands.
-
Walkaway,
a novel by Cory Doctorow, co-editor of Boing
Boing. Tor/Macmillan,
April 2017. A science-fiction thriller envisioning the possibilities
for a post-society utopia.
When Lt. Uhura Met MLK
Commentary by Cindy Wagner
Speaking
of books, I highly recommend last year’s extraordinary Hidden Figures by
Margot Lee Shetterly (William Morrow, 2016). Though it is a book
about history—the role of African American women “computers” in
the late days of Jim Crow and the early days of aerospace research—it
is also an inspiring story about future-making on many levels.
One
passage that surprised me touches on the impacts of science fiction
and popular culture. Shetterly tells the story of Star
Trek actress
Nichelle Nichols (Lieutenant Uhura), who handed creator Gene
Roddenberry her resignation in 1967 after only one season on the
television series so she could return to her Broadway career.
Then she met Dr.
Martin Luther King Jr. at an NAACP fundraiser. “You can’t leave
the show,” King told the actress. “We are there because you are
there.”
Shetterly writes:
“Black people have been imagined in the future, [King] continued,
emphasizing how important and groundbreaking a fact that was....
‘This is not a black role, this is not a female role,’ he said to
her. ‘This is a unique role that brings to life what we are
marching for: equality.’ … Nichols returned to Gene Roddenberry’s
office on Monday morning and asked him to tear up the resignation
letter.”
And
the rest is science and social future history. —CGW
__________
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2016 AAI
Foresight
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