Signals: Living in (Smart) Glass Houses... and more

Vol. 1, No. 12 | April 16, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Living in a (Smart) Glass House

> Food Regulators Urged to Define “Natural”

> Marketing for a Better World: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> In Memoriam: Kenneth W. Harris

Living in a (Smart) Glass House

Colder winters and hotter summers are why living and working in glass-fronted buildings is not smart. These beautiful but energy-inefficient designs are costly for owners and waste tremendous amounts of energy.

Buildings account for a huge portion of overall energy consumption—some 40 percent in Germany, for instance. Fraunhofer Institute researchers in Dresden are now working with students and professors at Weissensee School of Art in Berlin to develop better materials for use in glass façades.

The team is constructing a demonstration model of thermally reactive fabric blinds based on a concept by design student Bára Finnsdottir. The design consists of a matrix of 72 flowerlike fabric components with shape-memory actuators integrated into them. As sunlight hits the façade, the pieces move noiselessly to shield the building from heat.

The researchers hope to have a commercially available system by mid-2017. Looking beyond smarter façades, they envision even better energy capabilities for the concept.

“It might be possible to store solar thermal energy and then release it when needed to heat the interior, for instance at night,” says André Bucht, department head at Fraunhofer IWU. “Another idea is to coat the flower fabric components with malleable, organic solar cells in order to generate electricity that can be used within the building.”

Source: Fraunhofer IWU. Image: © Bára Finnsdóttir, Weissensee School of Art Berlin.

Signals: architecture, design, energy

Food Regulators Urged to Define “Natural”

Food producers, consumers, and regulators all want to know what’s natural, and no one seems to agree. “Artificial” ingredients are a little easier to understand, such as added colors and flavors, but these additives cast suspicions on many food products that may actually be harmless.

With more genetically modified organisms creeping into the food supply, marketers have been put on the defensive to reassure consumers and regulators. Consumers have resorted to lawsuits to demand complete and accurate information on the stuff they stuff into their mouths.

“Though natural food lawsuits to date have disappointed, they encourage marketers to drop the claim of being natural or reformulate their products to avoid future lawsuits,” writes Ross D. Petty of Babson College in the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing. “Perhaps this will persuade the [Food and Drug Administration] or [Federal Trade Commission] to consider creating, finally, a definition for the meaning of natural.”

Source: American Marketing Association

Reference: Ross D. Petty, “‘Natural’ Claims in Food Advertising: Policy Implications of Filling the Regulatory Void with Consumer Class Action Lawsuits,” Journal of Public Policy & Marketing (In Press). DOI:10.1509/jppm.14.147 

Signals: consumers, food, GMO, marketing, regulation

Marketing for a Better World: Report from Timothy C. Mack

Psychology, behavioral economics, and even neuroscience are coming together with digital technology to change the mechanics of human decision making. The goal is to use feedback on consumers’ emotional reactions and to apply conditioning techniques (rewards) to promote the habits of pleasurable actions. Behavior engineering is flowering in such developments as Nir Eyal’s Habit Hook, driven by rapid advances in neuroscience and the emergence of continuous shopping.

But this approach isn’t just about reinforcing habitual consumption; it could also build habits that are actually good for you, such as encouraging more physical activity, getting more rest each night, or being more frugal. Nonprofit organizations could also use such benign behavior building techniques, benefiting from greater sharing of personal information and higher, more reactive transmissions speeds worldwide. Read more.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report is adapted from the Foresight Signals blog. Download his Foresight Report “The Future of Retail Marketing” (Spring 2015).

Signals: addiction, AI, marketing, neuroscience, psychology

In Memoriam: Kenneth W. Harris

The foresight community was saddened to learn of the death earlier this year of Ken Harris, who served the World Future Society and its National Capital chapter for many years. He was also a field editor on transportation for TechCast Global and a member of the Association for Professional Futurists and the Lifeboat Foundation, in addition to his work as a consultant for the Consilience Group.

Ken was an avid sports and fitness fan, enjoying golf, biking, weight training, and numerous other activities, about which he wrote eloquently for The Futurist.

“His interests and expertise ranged from transportation to the sports industry to health, and worked on fundraising and outreach programs,” said AAI Foresight managing consultant Tim Mack. “He was diligent, reliable and indefatigable in his support of the interests of the World Future Society, and he will be greatly missed.”

Ken devoted more than 30 years to federal civil service, working principally at the Federal Aviation Administration. His work in helping the FAA navigate the future of aviation and the economy segued to his post-federal consulting and volunteer work, including leading book discussion groups.

“Ken Harris was among the most dedicated World Future Society volunteers relentlessly advocating for and actively supporting the activities of the futures community,” said former board chair Ken Hunter. “He worked tirelessly to support the WFS chapters and people around the world developing local groups. He also served on many special project teams always contributing time, talent and professionalism to enterprise. It was a pleasure serving with Ken over the decades.”

Ken lived in Bethesda, Maryland, with his wife, Carolyn. At the time of this writing, a date for memorial services had not been set. Condolences may be posted in the comments here or emailed to AAI Foresight and will be forwarded to Carolyn Harris.

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© 2015 AAI Foresight

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Marketing for a Better World

By Timothy C. Mack

While I have written in the past about the revolution that the world of retail is undergoing, one interesting thing about the future is that it keeps unfolding. Like any lively crossroads of converging technologies, the principles of retail choice (or should I say persuasion) brings psychology, behavioral economics, and even neuroscience together with digital technology to change the mechanics of human decision making.

Wiring the face muscles of subjects viewing Internet websites (looking for irritation from frowning or delight from smiling) is rather old hat, but what is new is using this feedback data to build habitual behavior out of the pleasure data, based on the half-century-old research of B.F. Skinner on positive conditioning. The goal is to transform the subject’s initial actions into to compelling urges to repeat pleasurable actions.

Nir Eyal is the developer of an approach called the Habit Hook, a progressive learning loop that begins with an action trigger, leading to a rewarding experience and ending with some sort of investment. The result is an increased likelihood that the subject will undertake the whole sequence again, thus moving smoothly from actions into urges.

What is most provocative about this new integration of the soft and hard sciences

(which increasingly involves smartphones and a wider range of apps than simple online retail) is that it could build habits that are actually good for you, such as increased participation in corporate wellness programs by encouraging not just more activity but more rest each night.

This arena is now being crowded not just by decision psychologists, but also by game theorists and predictive modelers. While better services and more suitable offers for consumers are hyped, what we are seeing is a brave new world for advertising. Firms like Rocket Fuel, are using AI programming to design ideal website ads that make upwards of $400 million annually. This is a long way from putting the “next best thing” into that Web stream to see if it went viral or faded away, with few clues of what the outcome would be.

Behavior engineering is flowering, driven by rapid advances in neuroscience and the emergence of continuous shopping. The constantly evolving Web is no longer an impediment to choice but a process of galvanization and inside information rewards (newest and best first); consumer participants will soon be able to continuously curate their commercial experiences, thereby educating both themselves and marketers.

Note: This is not a lament about our loss of personal freedom or psychic privacy (although that may be increasingly involved). It is an observation that positive behaviors such as healthier activity or increased frugality are also the outcomes of habit building. Moreover, nonprofit organizations could also use such benign behavior building techniques, benefiting from greater sharing of personal information and higher, more reactive transmissions speeds worldwide.

If activating the brain’s reward circuitry is “addiction,” whether or not substance abuse is involved, as the American Society of Addiction Medicine has determined, these techniques may cause concerns. But they also may suggest solutions to some of society’s most concerning health and public safety challenges.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. Image: Steve Jurvetson, Flickr.

Download “The Future of Retail Marketing” by Timothy C. Mack, Foresight Report, AAI Foresight Inc., Spring 2015 (PDF).

Sources: “Technology and Persuasion” by Nanette Byrnes and “Compulsive Behavior Sells” by Ted Greenwald in MIT Technology Review Business Report: Paths of Persuasion, March 23, 2015.