Signals: Technology vs. Work ... Polarization to Evaporate ... The Top Women Futurists ... and more

Vol. 1, No. 21 | September 1, 2015 | AAI Foresight

News for the Foresight Community:

> Publication: State of the Future’s Special Focus on Work

> Opinion: Bob Chernow on U.S. Polarization

> Transition: Pardee Center for International Futures

> Update: “Why Aren’t There More Women Futurists?”

> News from AAI Foresight: Welcoming Three New Partners

> Results: Foresight Signals Reader Survey

Publication: 2015-16 State of the Future’s Special Focus on Work

The latest edition of The Millennium Project’s annual State of the Future series includes the results of the group’s Delphi survey on the future of work, which focuses particularly on the impacts of technology on the workplace and workforce.

Synthetic biology, computational science, nanotechnology, quantum computing, 3-D printing, the Internet of Things, self-driving vehicles, robotics, and other developments “will have fundamental impacts on the nature of work, economics, and culture by 2050,” write Jerome C. Glenn and Elizabeth Florescu in the chapter titled “Future Work/Technology 2050 Real-Time Delphi Study.”

Whether these developments will create more jobs than they destroy is debatable, but we are already seeing jobless economic growth as the new norm, as well as increasing concentration of wealth and widening income gaps and long-term structural unemployment as a “business as usual” scenario, the authors write.

The chapter presents the responses of the nearly 300 Delphi participants, predominantly North American and European professionals with “medium” to “high” levels of futures research expertise. Among the findings:

• If current trends remain unchanged, average unemployment will grow to 11 percent by 2020 and to 24 percent by 2050.
• Robotics is the technology rated most likely to replace more jobs than it creates.
• Factors most likely to create jobs (or reduce mass unemployment) are new economic and work concepts and increased self-employment, freelancing, and DIY support systems.
• Retraining programs for more-advanced skills and STEM requirements in all levels of education are the actions thought most likely to be deployed and to be effective for creating new employment or income by 2050.
• A guaranteed lifetime income will be “absolutely necessary” or “very important” by 2050, according to more than half (59 percent) of the respondents.

The next step for the Delphi project, according to Glenn, “will be to write alternative scenarios and roadmaps to 2050.” The 2015-16 State of the Future also provides the latest trends on 28 indicators of progress and regress and updates the 15 Global Challenges.

Details: 2015-16 Stateof the Future by Jerome C. Glenn, Elizabeth Florescu, and The Millennium Project Team (2015, The Millennium Project).

Signals: Delphi poll, economy, employment, technology, work

Opinion: Bob Chernow on U.S. Polarization 

In an editorial for the Milwaukee Business News blog, futurist Bob Chernow predicts that the polarization clouding much of U.S. society today will evaporate in the next five to seven years. The roots for this polarization, he writes, “can be found in the changes in our economy and the shifts in power that many sense, but find difficult to express.”

Ongoing waves of rapid change have unnerved many, whose “objective, stated and unstated, is to stop perceived changes in status, power and wealth,” Chernow says. But demographic factors, such as increased ethnic and racial diversity and the rise of the powerful millennial generation (and its more secular values), may narrow many of the divides now keenly felt in U.S. society.

“Yes, we have deep racial divides in our country, but much of this has to do with age,” Chernow writes. “Young people, defined as 40 years or younger, do not care about race, religion or national origin. They are more likely to see the divide between left and right, which describes values.”

The growing influence of the millennials could manifest in increased tolerance, relaxing those tensions between left and right. “I believe we are five to seven years away from an end to the polarization we are witnessing,” Chernow writes. “We have begun to see signs already in the greater acceptance of the change and by compromise to accomplish collective ends that have been absent in our dialogues.”

Reference:  Bob Chernow, “Severe polarization in U.S. could end in 5-7 years,” BizTimes.com (July 9, 2015).

Signals: demography, generations, values

Transition: Pardee Center for International Futures

Barry Hughes, director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, has announced he is “going to cut back a bit.” Taking a sabbatical next year to write a book on world modeling and international futures, he will also lead the search for a new director for the Pardee Center (placement effective by fall 2016). Hughes, who also is the John Evans Professor of international studies at the University of Denver, will retain a “senior mentor” role at the Pardee Center. Jonathan Moyer, the Center’s associate director, will be acting director.

Details: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Signals: futures studies, international futures

Update: “Why Aren’t There More Women Futurists?” 

They say everyone talks about the future but no one does anything about it. In response to the provocative (or provoking) question “Why Aren’t There More Women Futurists?” posted in the Atlantic technology blog, which we discussed in the last issue of Foresight Signals, at least one trend-watching group did something about it.

Portland, Oregon–based market consultants Little Bird, led by Marshall Kirkpatrick, compiled a Twitter list of 125 women futurists as a way to identify influential voices on that social network. The “top five” are Wendy L. Shultz, Jennifer Jarratt, Cindy Frewen, Rachel Armstrong, Maree Conway, and Heather Schlegel (aka Heathervescent). AAI Foresight’s own Cindy Wagner is also included on the list of “important women futurists online.”

In his blog post introducing the list, Kirkpatrick explains, “Here at Little Bird, we believe that there’s fundamental business value in listening to and learning from the very best thinkers on any topic you’re considering. … Of course there are important women futurists who do not use Twitter, but when looking for women futurists, we think this is a great place to start plugging in to the conversation.”

References: Rose Eveleth, “Why Aren’t There More Women Futurists?” Atlantic.com (posted July 31, 2015).

Marshall Kirkpatrick, “5 Top Women Futurists & The End ofBusiness as Usual,” GetLittleBird.com (posted August 19, 2015).

Signals: feminism, futurism, influencers, marketing, trend hunting

News from AAI Foresight: Welcoming Three New Partners

AAI Foresight’s global network of experts is growing! Managing principal Tim Mack is pleased to welcome the following consultants as associates:

• Cornelia Daheim (Cologne, Germany), is the founder of Future Impacts Consulting and chair of The Millennium Project’s German Node. She was a managing partner with Z_punkt: The Foresight Company for four years, where she was most recently the head of international projects.
• Wendy McGuinness (Wellington, New Zealand) is founder and CEO of the McGuinness Institute (previously the Sustainable Future Institute), which focuses on the long-term future of New Zealand. She is also a Fellow Chartered Accountant, specializing in risk management.
• Carol Rieg (Washington, D.C.) is the corporate foundation officer for Bentley Systems Inc., where she established a global employee-giving program reaching 3,300 employees in 45 countries, among other accomplishments. She is also a former national director of the Future City Competition.

Learn more about AAI Foresight and its partner consultants. To connect, please contact Tim Mack at tcmack333@gmail.com or call 202-431-1652. 

Results: Foresight Signals Reader Survey

Thank you to all who responded to Foresight Signals’ reader survey in our last issue. Based on an overwhelming (63.6 percent) preference for “all of the above,” we will continue to offer short stories on trends and forecasts as well as news about foresight professionals and projects. To this mix, we will also add longer, “deep dives” into significant issues and interviews or profiles of futurists and other forward-looking individuals and groups. Feedback is always welcome! Log in at the AAI Foresight website to post your comments or drop a line to Tim or Cindy.

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

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© 2015 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Signals: 11.2 Billion in 2100 ... Female Futurists ... Hope City ... and more

Vol. 1, No. 20 | August 18, 2015 | AAI Foresight

News for the Foresight Community:

> Hot Topic: World Population in 2100

> Commentary: “Why Aren’t There More Women Futurists?”

> Game: Hope City

> Mack Report: Social and Economic Impacts of Aging

Hot Topic: World Population in 2100

The world population will reach 11.2 billion by the end of this century, predicts the 2015 revision of the UN’s World Population Prospects, released earlier this month. The forecast sparked an array of commentaries.

Len Rosen (21st Century Technology): “Can the world sustain 11.2 billion people by 2100? Can the world sustain a large aging population? Can the world provide the health care, the education and the employment to all those both living today and tomorrow? What additional stresses will be put on world population by changing climate and rising sea levels? It would seem humanity is racing towards a perfect storm, a population bomb and a climate bomb…. The picture the United Nations is painting is not a pleasant one yet nowhere in the document does the world body describe the consequences of its forecast.”

http://www.21stcentech.com/projections-show-world-population-hit-11-2-billion-2100/

Tariq Khokhar and Haruna Kashiwase (World Bank Open Data): “In the ‘medium variant’ projections … they’ve assumed that the worldwide average fertility rate will fall from today’s 2.5 children per woman, to 2.4 by around 2030, and 2.0 by around 2100. But there’s substantial uncertainty in these projections, especially in countries with higher fertility rates. They point out that if the average fertility rate was just 0.5 children higher, the projected population for 2100 would be 16.6 billion—more than 5 billion greater than the medium variant projection above.” 

http://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/future-world-s-population-4-charts

Brian Wang (The Next Big Future): “Those projections are before consideration about success with longevity treatments. Also if Africa's birthrate stayed at current levels and did not drop at all then world population would be about 20-25 billion in 2100…. We can first look at boosting agricultural yield, achievable infrastructure construction and minor reorganization to support higher population…. It is also interesting how some people have a knee jerk reaction like the following. Well we must stop people in Africa and Asia from breeding to prevent an increase of 20% in world population. However, driving around in SUV with 10% ethanol from corn with an hour commute each way from their McMansion to their office is not considered.”

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/08/radical-life-extension-birthrates-and.html

James Dyke (The Conversation): “If industrialised agriculture can now feed seven billion, then why can’t we figure out how to feed 11 billion by the end of this century?  … Some research suggests global food production is stagnating. The green revolution hasn’t run out of steam just yet but innovations such as GM crops, more efficient irrigation and subterranean farming aren’t going to have a big enough impact. The low-hanging fruits of yield improvements have already been gobbled up.”

https://theconversation.com/can-the-earth-feed-11-billion-people-four-reasons-to-fear-a-malthusian-future-43347

Reference: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.241. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

Image credit: James Cridland, Flickr

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamescridland/613445810

Signals: demography, fertility, food, population, resources, sustainability

Commentary: “Why Aren’t There More Women Futurists?”

The lead question in a recent Atlantic technology blog post by Rose Eveleth arises from an observation that men who claim futurism as their profession (or avocation) outnumber women who do so. It is not a new observation to those of us who have covered the field for decades, and the question itself seems designed to provoke defensive, emotional reactions rather than reasonable responses.

“It turns out that what makes someone a futurist, and what makes something futurism, isn’t well defined,” Eveleth writes. “When you ask those who are part of official futurist societies, like the APF and the WFS, they often struggle to answer.”

To suggest that futurists struggle to define themselves is to suggest there is only one definition of a futurist. Clearly there is not: Trekkies, transhumanists, technology assessors, urban planners, and visionaries of all stripes may (or may not) call themselves “futurists.” If men outnumber women in such categories, maybe women are simply busy doing futurism: visioning, planning, collaborating, executing, re-visioning. Too busy, perhaps, to raise their hands when the census takers show up to question their commitment to the cause.

But the real problem with demographic underrepresentation in any profession or field of research is the imbalance it creates when it comes to building the world we want to live in and preventing the problems that will cause nightmares or avert our dreams. If all we know about the future is what the male techno-optimists are trying to sell us, society will miss a lot of opportunities and overlook a lot of unintended consequences.

As Madeline Ashby tells Eveleth, “For a long time the future has belonged to people who have not had to struggle, and I think that will still be true. But as more and more systems collapse, currency, energy, the ability to get water, the ability to work, the future will increasingly belong to those who know how to hustle, and those people are not the people who are producing those purely optimistic futures.”

Reference: Rose Eveleth, “Why Aren’t There More Women Futurists?” Atlantic.com (posted July 31, 2015).

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/07/futurism-sexism-men/400097/?utm_source=SFFB

Image: Geralt, Pixabay.com

https://pixabay.com/p-645772/?no_redirect

Signals: feminism, futurism

Game: Hope City

Draw your Citizen Card, grab your Wage Bag, and roll your Hope, Talent, Capital, and Corruption cubes. Play with Chaos, but beware of Punk attacks.

Developer Robert Mattox describes the Hope City board game as “Strategic Foresight 101.” Hope City “deals with systems thinking, S.T.E.E.P, and identity formation,” he says.

While teaching the principles of community development, the game also features a creative cast of good guys (Mayor, Entrepreneur, Coach, Engineer, Ranger, Doctor) and bad guys (Mobster, Tycoon, Bully, Cyberpunk, Squatter, Drug Dealer). Though every Citizen starts out good, they “break bad” upon accumulating corruption cards. (But there is always hope that the drug dealer can be reformed back into a doctor.)

Details: Hope City http://www.playhopecity.com/  See also Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Playhopecity

Signals: cities, gaming, scenarios

Mack Report: Social and Economic Impacts of Aging

In his latest blog post on the impacts of an aging workforce, AAI Foresight managing principal Tim Mack observes that a tightening labor market combined with the aging baby boomers’ general desire to stay engaged and gainfully employed will lead to a greater appreciation among employers for the skills that their older workers possess.

The skills required of these workers in the future, however, will need to keep up with the ever-transforming economic environment and technological developments. That means investing in training.

“Employers have shown a significant aversion to paying out in a globally competitive environment,” Mack writes. “Accordingly, low-cost training options such as community colleges, tax incentives, and other strategies appear viable for funding these programs, although the 21st-century skills that will be needed have been evolving over the past decade and a half.”

Timothy C. Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight. Read “Aging’s Social and Economic Impacts (Part Two)” on the Foresight Signals blog.

Signals: aging, demography, employment, training, workforce

__________

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

© 2015 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Aging’s Social and Economic Impacts (Part Two)

By Timothy C. Mack

Older workers are a burden and a salvation for the economic future. We are all aware that the graying populations in developed countries now, followed by developing countries, are a demographic force whose impacts will be felt over the next 50 years.

Still, even such clear demographic forces are subject to influence from other forces, rendering the future uncertain. These forces include new technologies (health and genetic manipulation), education (resulting in fewer births among women, more time working), and cultural values (retirement bores many people). So the vision of lots of walker-bound elderly people clogging up our service systems and soaking up our tax money (or starving in the streets) may still be a possible and maybe even probable future (though not preferable)—but the timeline for such a scenario is substantially longer than most observers expect.

The U.S. Census Bureau still insists that one in five Americans will be 65 or older by 2040. That is the certain part. But what that will mean for the United States (still a bellwether nation) and the rest of the world is getting a lot more complex. The projected 67 percent increase in that over-65 U.S. population between 2015 and 2040 is very likely to include plenty of older individuals still working, still healthy, and still productive. The Urban Institute estimates that, by 2019, 35 percent of the labor force will be over age 50; Sloan Center on Aging & Work at Boston College says 25 percent of workers will be over 55.

Part of this shift is due to health and workplace technology (telecommuting and the DIY workforce), but part of it is cultural. The now-retiring boomers are easily bored and hungry for mental engagement; and they are largely broke, with poor savings habits and the related need to continue eating regularly. As well, older workers are increasingly willing to forgo benefits (Medicare) by working part time in semi-retirement. While many employers are slower than their workers are to accept these attitude shifts, expect this shift to increase. In the face of a projected shortfall of trained younger workers as the economy continues to recover between now and 2030 (expect low U.S. unemployment levels for several decades), employers will increasingly value more experienced and skilled workers.

That said, skill sets also will shift rapidly, and our older, experienced workers will need training. Employers have shown a significant aversion to paying out in a globally competitive environment. Accordingly, low-cost training options such as community colleges, tax incentives, and other strategies appear viable for funding these programs, although the 21st-century skills that will be needed have been evolving over the past decade and a half.

Another important consideration for workers who will continue to commute to a traditional workplace are such adjustments as ergonomic chairs, better lighting, and exercise programs for all workers, including older ones. And it is likely that a constricting labor market will expand the number of companies who are thinking in this manner.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAIForesight.

Resource: Kerry Hannon, “Why Older Workers Can't Be Ignored,” Forbes (January 21, 2013).

Signals: Printed Flight ... Wind Futures ... Worldfuture conference report ... and more

Vol. 1, No. 19 | August 4, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals:

> Printed Flight: Engineers Test-Fly 3-D Printed Aircraft

> Europe Advances in Wind Energy Capacity

> Harnessing the Skills of Senior Workers: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> Worldfuture 2015 Conference Highlights

Printed Flight: Engineers Test-Fly 3-D Printed Aircraft

Engineers at Britain’s University of Southampton have test flown a 3-D printed unmanned aerial vehicle from the deck of a Royal Navy ship, demonstrating the possibility of manufacturing simple, lightweight UAVs while at sea.

Project Triangle researchers printed the vehicle in four parts using laser-sintered nylon and assembled it without the use of tools. The short flight demonstrated the potential for using simpler designs and production processes, according to the researchers.

“The key to increased use of UAVs is the simple production of low cost and rugged airframes,” said Andy Keane, a professor at Southampton’s Engineering and the Environment Department, in a press statement. “We believe our pioneering use of 3-D printed nylon has advanced design thinking in the UAV community worldwide.”

Details: University of Southampton

Signals: 3-D printing; drones; UAVs

Europe Advances in Wind Energy Capacity

The EU’s electricity grid reached 129 GW cumulative capacity in 2014, meeting 8 percent of European electricity demand (roughly the equivalent of the combined consumption of Belgium, the Netherlands, Greece, and Ireland). Growth in EU wind capacity is on target to provide 12 percent of electricity within the next five years, reports the European Commission’s Joint Research Center.

Wind power has seen the widest development and growth in the last two decades, and costs are on a downward trend. JRC concludes that wind energy will thus contribute significantly to EU’s goal for at least 20 percent of energy derived from renewable sources by 2020. The EU has now set a target of 27 percent for renewable energy and energy savings by 2030, along with a 40 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared with 1990 figures.

With growing capacity from onshore and offshore wind installations, six countries—Denmark, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Romania, and Germany—generated between 10 and 40 percent of their electricity from wind.

Details: European Commission, Joint Research Center; image © EU

Signals: electricity, energy, Europe, wind power

Harnessing the Skills of Senior Workers: Report from Timothy C. Mack

An aging but healthier population includes accomplished leaders who are increasingly interested in public service. Many in this group seek meaningful contributions rather than income, but there is an absence of established pathways.

Thought-leaders in higher education have proposed developing new “schools for advanced institutional leadership” that offer more than retraining for new careers. But this approach views senior workers as a fully developed resource that stands ready for direction and a few new skills, ignoring their financial, health, and even psychological challenges.

Should we commit to harnessing a resource that by its nature is diminishing at an increasing rate? And by “diminishing,” I mean the natural decline of productivity of individual workers as their age increases. The fact that this issue falls into the “wicked problem” category should not in any way diminish the moral and social necessity to find solutions. Read more

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This article is excerpted from the Foresight Signals blog.

Worldfuture 2015 Conference Highlights

Worldfuture 2015, the annual conference of the World Future Society, took place July 24-26 in San Francisco, and groups such as The Millennium Project and the Association of Professional Futurists also used the gathering to conduct separate business meetings and development sessions.

One reporter writes: “The opening plenary was well attended and the reception packed, with ‘so great to see you again’ everywhere. And many of the presentations [were] comfortingly familiar…. Speakers such as Peter Schwartz (Salesforce), Paul Saffo (Discern Investment Analytics) lit their audiences on fire.”

Other familiar futurists inspiring enthusiasm among attendees included Jim Dator (University of Hawaii), Brian David Johnson (Intel) Janna Q. Anderson (Elon University), Marc Goodman (Future Crimes).

APF activities included a professional development forum and announcements of the year’s most-significant futures work, such as Stuart Candy and OCAD’s game “The Thing From The Future,” which won in the methodology category.

At The Millennium Project’s Planning Committee meeting, co-founder and CEO Jerome C. Glenn previewed the 300-page 2015-16 State of the Future. “This contains the greatest assemblage of data, information, intelligence, and wisdom about the future ever organized in one source,” Glenn stated in a press release. The report may be ordered from The Millennium Project.

As Tweeted:

Blanca E. Duarte ‏(@blancaedu): @JannaQ I Loved the presentation - lots to think about. My dinner party conversations r going to get a lot more interesting. Thank you

Janna Q. Anderson ‏(@JannaQ): Fabulous presentation by Marc Goodman @FutureCrimes at #WF2015.

Tracey Wait ‏(@TraceyWait): Science meets Fiction with @grayscott brilliant! My personal fav so far at #wfs2015

Richard Yonck ‏(@ryonck): Great talk @ #WF2015 by @ramez "Radical Optimism w/ Very Real Concerns"> "the cost of tech trends toward zero"

SciFutures ‏(@scifutures): Standing room only for @IntelFuturist brilliant session at #WFS2015 'the future of the American dream'

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Special Publications Project

AAI Foresight’s special publications project, Foresight Reports, produces white papers, futures-research work, and long-form essays on a variety of future-oriented topics. The purpose is to demonstrate foresight methodology in action as it is applied in all fields of interest to public-policy analysts, academicians, entrepreneurs, and public and private decision makers.

The reports are published periodically, with an expected frequency of four to six per year. All reports are offered as a free public service for the foresight and policy-making community, so authors are not offered remuneration at this time.

Manuscripts and inquiries may be submitted to AAI Foresight consulting editor Cindy Wagner at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com and should include the author’s brief bio and contact information.

__________

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

© 2015 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Harnessing the Skills of Senior Workers

By Timothy C. Mack

Problems such as poverty, global health, basic education, and environmental quality are systemic in nature, have both political and technical dimensions, and tend to require cross-sector and cross-profession collaboration. But there is a knowledge gap in developing and implementing viable solutions.

For example, an aging but healthier population includes accomplished leaders who are increasingly interested in public service. Many in this group seek meaningful contributions rather than income, but there is an absence of established pathways. The opportunity this population presents has not been addressed by higher education.

In the past, American universities have tackled major challenges not by incremental change but by founding new graduate and professional schools to educate experienced leaders who wish to tackle societal and global problems in their next phase of life. Such “schools for advanced institutional leadership” could offer more than retraining for new careers. For example, they could focus on honing the knowledge required to lead social institutions and address global challenges.

This approach sounds very similar to that long taken by the foresight community: working across disciplines, taking a systems view of problems, and being willing to craft innovation solutions, including applying new technologies.

The above is a summary of a proposal by Rosabeth Moss Kanter and her colleagues titled “Moving Higher Education to its Next Stage.” Since the time of publication as a working paper in 2005 by the Harvard Business School, this approach has appeared in a number of forms at such leading institutions as Stanford University, state social programs, and nonprofits. In the decade since its publication, the concept has moved beyond the resources and mindset of developed countries and transformed itself beyond the university setting.

Despite its broad appeal, this approach views senior workers as a fully developed resource that stands ready for direction and a few new skills. What thought-leaders have ignored are the financial, health, and even psychological challenges facing this population. Stated in another way, the biggest challenge is not what the nation needs from seniors but what they need from the nation (or the larger community). Should we commit to harnessing a resource that by its nature is diminishing at an increasing rate?

By this observation, I do not mean that the volume of the resource is diminishing. On the contrary, demographic forces are driving the growth of volume of senior workers and will continue to do so for decades to come. What I am referring to is the natural decline of productivity of individual workers as their age increases. Of course, there are some extraordinary exceptions, and technology, exercise, and diet (and even genetic manipulation) continue to provide counterforces to this march of the impact of time. But the ROI formula raises the most concern. Why continue to invest in worker resources that by their nature are more often moving out of the workforce rather than into it?

There are two answers to this crucial question. First, when handled with care, engaged and utilized populations are more robust in term of personal productivity, including their transmission of valuable experience and honed skill sets. Second, the overall social costs are lower for the care of older populations who are healthier, both mentally and physically. These social costs are just beginning to be measured and understood, and in countries such as Japan, they are a growing cause for political and policy-making concern.

To summarize: The tools and insights of foresight have significant utility and relevance in addressing coming social, economic, and political challenges, such as the plight and potential of growing elderly populations worldwide. Policy makers at all levels should be aware that any set of solutions to these problems will generate as many new challenges as easing of demographic pressures.

The fact that this issue falls into the “wicked problem” category should not in any way diminish the moral and social necessity to find solutions. As has often been observed, aging may be put off with a range of strategies, but this is not epidemiology. The “disease” of old age may be mitigated, but never cured. And it is always fatal.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc.

Reference: “Moving Higher Education to Its Next Stage: A New Set of Societal Challenges, a New Stage of Life, and a Call to Action for Universities” by Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Rakesh Khurana, and Nitin Nohria. Harvard Business School Working Paper 06-21, November 2005.