Vol. 1, No. 6 | January
15, 2015 | AAI Foresight
Inside Foresight SIGNALS
> Power Pedaling with Bamboo Bike
> Philanthropy and Productivity
> Why Some Fossil Fuels Need to Stay in the Ground
> Book Note: Toward a Freakier Mind-Set
> Futurists at Work, Foresight in the News
Power Pedaling with Bamboo Bike
A bamboo bicycle under development in Mexico promises to be tougher,
lighter, and less prone to heat, and thus an innovative way to replace metal
parts with natural materials. But wait, there’s more: The bamboo bike will also
generate energy.
Pedaling a bike creates kinetic energy, so the goal of the Bambootec
consortium is to capture that energy through circuits in the rims and run it to
converters and regulators in the system’s core under the seat. The energy is converted
to electricity—about 10 volts—which can recharge mobile devices and a smartphone
battery, and power a navigation dashboard on the handlebars, connected via
Bluetooth.
The team’s goals now are to accelerate the charging process
and to develop the machinery to scale the bamboo bike up for mass production.
Bambootec, located in Yucatán, is a participant in Cleantech Challenge Mexico,
a contest that promotes the development of green enterprises.
Source: Investigación y Desarrollo [in Spanish].
Signals: appropriate
technology, bicycles, green energy, Mexico, renewable resources, sustainability,
transportation
Philanthropy and Productivity
Encouraging workers to give at the office may turn out to be
a good way to boost their productivity. A study at Britain’s University of
Southampton found that, when subjects could choose the amount of performance-based
pay they would share with charity, their performance increased considerably.
“A lot of studies have shown how financial incentives, like
bonuses and stock options, can improve performance,” said the study’s lead
author, University of Southampton economist Mirco Tonin, in a press statement.
“But our results provide empirical support for the growing recognition that
some workers are also motivated by advancing social causes through their
efforts.”
While financial incentives like bonuses are still more
effective at motivating workers, the difference is not as wide as many believe,
suggests the study, to be published in Management
Science. Tonin concludes that “firms willing to introduce corporate giving
programs may want to consider giving employees the opportunity to ‘opt in.’”
Reference: “Corporate
Philanthropy and Productivity: Evidence from an Online Real Effort Experiment,”
Mirco Tonin and Michael Vlassopoulos, Management
Science, DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.1985
Signals: business,
philanthropy, productivity
Why Some Fossil Fuels Need to Stay in the Ground
A large portion of the world’s untapped coal, oil, and
natural gas needs to stay in the ground through 2050 in order to keep global
warming from exceeding the internationally agreed limit of 2°C, warns a new study
from University College London’s Institute for Sustainable Resources.
The study, published in the journal Nature, recommends that the Middle East leave 65% of its gas in the
ground, and that 80% of the coal in China, Russia, and the United States remain
undisturbed through the next 35 years, along with 260 billion barrels of
petroleum reserves—the equivalent of all of Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves.
How do we avoid either an economic catastrophe or an
environmental one? Energy companies (and their investors) should divert the
search for more fossil fuels to more alternatives, according to the study’s
co-author, environmental policy professor Paul Ekins.
“The greater global attention to climate policy … means that
fossil fuel companies are becoming increasingly risky for investors in terms of
the delivery of long-term returns,”says Ekins. “I would expect prudent
investors in energy to shift increasingly towards low-carbon energy sources.”
Reference: C.
McGlade and P. Ekins, “The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused
when limiting global warming to 2°C,” Nature
(January 7, 2015). DOI: 10.1038/nature14016
Signals: climate
change, energy, fossil fuels, global warming, low-carbon fuels
Book Note: Toward a Freakier Mind-Set
Finding and interpreting signals or outliers in the
landscape is part of the job for foresight professionals. It requires us to
think differently about what we see, and even about what we seek, which may be
why many of us self-identify as geeks or freaks.
In Think Like a Freak (Morrow,
2014), University of Chicago economist Steven
D. Levitt and journalist Stephen J.
Dubner share techniques for training your mind to think differently, a
prerequisite for foresight.
Think Like a Freak
is well-populated with case studies for freaky thinking in business, which should
prove of value to futurists and foresight professionals working with business
trends and clients.
Signals: business,
creative thinking, Freakonomics, futurist methodologies, strategies, trends
Futurists at Work, Foresight in the News
Islam, Islamism, and
Islamaphobia: “We have to liberate ourselves from the phobia of being
accused of Islamaphobia,” strategic futurist Tsvi Bisk told Israeli television i24 News, responding to a series
of lone-wolf terror attacks in France in December. The war, he said, is not on
terrorism, which he described as a strategy (like a flanking maneuver), nor on Islam,
but rather on Islamism—“a
totalitarian ideology whose aim is to conquer the world.” However, he
continued, “that does not mean one iota that you tolerate discrimination
against law-abiding Muslims. In other words, it’s a two-pronged attack. You
respect and integrate law-abiding Muslims and you uncompromisingly fight
against radical Islamism. I don’t see why that’s such a crazy thing to think
about.” Watch
the interview. Contact Tsvi Bisk, Center for Strategic Futurist Thinking.
Redrawing the Global
Language Map: A new, omnidisciplinary look at the present state and future
of language is being planned by University of Kentucky geographer Stanley D. Brunn. The multivolume
collection, tentatively titled The
Changing World Language Map, proposes to cover the intersection of language
and geography, with chapters contributed by scholars from all over the world
and from different backgrounds. Scholars interested in contributing should
contact Dr. Brunn at Brunn@uky.edu
Signal of the Month:
Trees and Housing. In his
monthly e-newsletter, financial adviser and futurist James Lee offers several wise tips for your 2015 financial
resolutions; number 7 is saving for a new home. If your goal is to move to a better,
safer neighborhood, Lee recommends going to Google Maps and looking for neighborhoods
with more trees. “This is simple, but it works!” he writes in his January 9 newsletter
for StratFi, The Forward View. Sign up for the free monthly e-newsletter at StratFi.
Send us your signals!
News about your work or other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner,
consulting editor.
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our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com
Foresight SIGNALS is
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