Vol. 1, No. 7 | February 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight
Inside Foresight SIGNALS
> Minor or Hidden Infections May Accelerate Mortality
> Dry Innovation for Plastics Recycling
> Liability
and the Self-Driving Car: Report from Timothy Mack
> Scholarly Researchers Embrace Skepticism
> Futurists and Foresight in the News
Minor or Hidden Infections May Accelerate Mortality
If you escaped that horrific flu or other infection that’s
been going around in your neighborhood, school, or workplace, you may count
yourself lucky. Maybe you only got a mild infection, or felt well and kept on
working just as effectively as ever. The bad news is that such hidden or mild,
untreated infections could be shortening your life.
In studies of migratory birds with mild malaria infections,
researchers at Sweden’s Lund University discovered that the cumulative effects
of chronic infections shortened the birds’ telomeres—the caps on chromosomes
that protect DNA—accelerating the aging process.
“The small, non-measureable effects of the chronic disease
appear to underlie the accelerated shortening of the telomeres. When the
telomeres get too short, this has a fatal effect and causes premature death,” said
Lund researcher Dennis Hasselquist of
the Department of Biology, a member of the research team. “If this is a general
mechanism for any type of mild, chronic infection, which is quite possible, it
will mean our study is of major interest to understand the impact that mild
illnesses can have on other organisms, including humans.”
Reference: M.
Asghar, D. Hasselquist, B. Hansson, P. Zehtindjiev, H. Westerdahl, S. Bensch, “Hidden
costs of infection: Chronic malaria accelerates telomere degradation and
senescence in wild birds,” Science
(January 23, 2015), Vol. 347, No. 6220, pp. 436-4381. DOI:
10.1126/science.1261121
Signals: aging,
health, longevity, telomeres
Dry Innovation for Plastics Recycling
Water-intensive processes for recycling plastic waste could
one day be replaced with new techniques that don’t require liquids. A dry
recycling process developed by Ak Inovex of Mexico also promises to reduce
energy consumption, use less space, and cut costs.
Using customizable machinery, the process can work with any
type of plastic material, such as Styrofoam and polystyrene, to produce small
plastic beads or pellets. Rather than dehydrating the original materials at
high heat and then cooling them with water, Ak Inovex uses a
patent-pending process of cooling through contact with special walls.
The company now plans to add biodetergents to the cleaning
process for the recycled plastic products, thus keeping water use and costs at
the lowest possible levels. Ak Inovex was a participant in Cleantech Challenge Mexico, a contest
to promote the development of green companies. (See also “Power Pedaling with
Bamboo Bike,” Foresight
SIGNALS, Vol. 1, no. 6.)
Source: Investigación
y Desarrollo [in Spanish].
Signals: green
technology, innovation, Mexico, plastics, recycling, water
Liability and the Self-Driving Car: Report from Timothy Mack
The auto
industry is clearly convinced that the question of autonomous vehicles is “not
if, but when.” But the potential impacts on the industry, such as liability issues,
are less clear.
Motor Trend analyst Frank Markus notes a number of relatively clear
benefits of a working national autonomous-vehicle system, such as reduced
accidents, increased mobility for nondrivers, reduced fuel consumption, and more intelligent driving patterns.
But one of
the most interesting questions regards autonomous and driver-controlled
vehicles sharing the same roadways: If there are far fewer accidents, there
will still be accidents, but probably fewer insurers to cover them. Who is
responsible when accidents happen? Who pays? Rather than owners of autonomous
vehicles taking out insurance (and paying premiums), would it fall on
manufacturers to indemnify their products?
One
possibility is public/private special compensation funds to underwrite
unintended consequences. Owners of older, non-autonomous cars might be required
to financially subsidize the rollout of presumably safer autonomous vehicles
and road systems. Of course, manufacturers’ liability remains a toss-up in any
court of law.
Timothy Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc.
This report was adapted from the Foresight
SIGNALS Blog. Image credit: Sam
Churchill, via Flickr (Creative Commons license).
Signals: AI, autonomous vehicles, insurance,
law, transportation
Scholarly Researchers Embrace Skepticism
A journal devoted to exploring the philosophical concept of
skepticism has now been included in Scopus, a database of peer-reviewed literature that covers
nearly 22,000 titles by 5,000 publishers worldwide. Scopus offers researchers wide access to tools to facilitate tracking,
analysis, and visualization of research.
Brill’s International
Journal for the Study of Skepticism, edited by Diego E. Machuca
(CONICET, Argentina) and Duncan H.
Pritchard (University of Edinburgh), publishes articles and organizes
symposiums on all aspects of skeptical thought and current problems, including
debates on epistemology, metaethics, and the philosophy of religion, among many
other topics.
“The journal is
fully committed to the highest standards of clarity and rigor, and serves as a
forum for debate and exchange of ideas among leading international philosophers
and scholars,” according to its mission statement.
Brill is an international
academic publisher based in Lieden, the Netherlands, covering Middle East and
Islamic Studies, Asian Studies, Classical Studies, History, Biblical and
Religious Studies, Language and Linguistics, Biology, International Law, and
more.
Signals: academic
publishing, philosophy, research, skepticism
Futurists and Foresight in the News
Global Strategic
Foresight Community: The World Economic Forum has established a new
future-oriented interest group comprising leaders and stakeholders in
government, industry, and the foresight profession. Among the participants are The Art of the Long View author Peter Schwartz of Salesforce.com, The Millennium Project founder Jerome C. Glenn, NATO strategic analyst Stephanie Babst, and Julius
Gatune of the African Centre for Economic Transformation. The GSFC will “provide
a peer network to compare and contrast insights as well as to positively shape
future-related industry, regional and global agendas.” Details
Survey on New
Approaches in Foresight: Futurists around the world often develop new
methodologies, which may affect outcomes in their foresight work. To better
understand these new approaches and their impacts on science, technology, and
innovation policy around the world, particularly Southeast Asia, The Future
Impacts Consulting firm invites Foresight SIGNALS readers to participate in a
brief survey (deadline
February 6). Details: Contact Cornelia
Daheim, daheim@future-impacts.de
Technolife 2035: The
English-language version of Teknoelämää
2035 by Finnish futurists Elina and
Kari Hiltunen is now in progress and should be available soon. Elina’s
previous book, Foresight and Innovation:
How Companies are Coping with the Future, available in both Finnish and
English, offers unique foresight tools that she has developed, such as the
TrendWiki, Futures Windows, Strategic Serendipity, and the Futuropoly board
game. Details
Earth Policy
Institute to Close: Leading environmental policy expert Lester R. Brown has announced his plans
to retire from the think tank he founded in 2001. EPI will close by July this
year, and the English-language versions of its principal publications will be
housed at Rutgers University, Brown’s alma mater, in the new Lester R. Brown
Reading Room. Brown’s career, spanning more than half a century, was devoted to
measuring the planet’s resources and assessing its well-being, and issuing
urgent warnings on such problems as climate change, overpopulation, and
unsustainable consumption of resources. Details
Frances Segraves,
Former Futurist Staff Editor: We
sadly report the passing of our friend and former colleague, pioneering
newspaper journalist Frances Segraves, on January 14. She was 87. Frances was a staff editor
for The Futurist magazine and the World Future Society Bulletin, retiring
at the end of 1998. Before joining WFS to work with her longtime friends Ed and Sally Cornish, Frances was one of the first female reporters in the
1950s to cover hard news stories, working for The Frederick
News, The Baltimore Sun, Bethlehem Globe-Times, and The Washington Star. She was also an activist in the anti-war and civil rights
movements in the 1960s and 1970s. Details
Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.
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Foresight SIGNALS is
a publication of AAI Foresight
1619 Main Street
#1172
Freeland, WA 98249
Managing Principal:
Timothy C. Mack
tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652
Webmaster and IT
Consultant: Tom Warner
Consulting Editor:
Cynthia G. Wagner
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