Vol. 1, No. 8 |
February 17, 2015 | AAI Foresight
Inside Foresight SIGNALS
> Octobot: Octopus-Inspired Robot Could Accelerate Ocean
Exploration
> Why Global Warming Has Archaeologists Scrambling
> Growing Pains for Solar Power: Report from Timothy C. Mack
> Futurists and Foresight in the News: Ranking the Think
Tanks
Octobot: Octopus-Inspired Robot Could Accelerate Ocean Exploration
Darting through water like a child’s deflating balloon flies through the air, a new octopus-inspired robot promises to accelerate ocean research and development.
Most underwater vehicles are streamlined to reduce drag, but
the octobot developed at University of
Southampton draws inspiration from cephalopods, which expand their bodies
with water that they then quickly expel in order to propel themselves.
Scaling up the size of the prototype robots could enable oceanographers to equip them with instrumentation or other payloads.
Source: University
of Southampton
Reference: Gabriel
Weymouth (University of Southampton), Vignesh Subramaniam (Singapore-MIT
Alliance for Research and Technology), and Michael Triantafyllou (MIT), “Ultra-fast escape maneuver of an
octopus-inspired robot,” Bioinspiration
and Biomimetics (Vol. 10, No. 1), published February 2, 2015.
doi:10.1088/1748-3190/10/1/016016
Signals: biomimicry,
engineering, oceanography, robotics
Why Global Warming Has Archaeologists Scrambling
Ancient arrowheads, wooden shafts, and even shoes are starting to turn up in a once-frozen landscape, but archaeologists in Norway are not necessarily rejoicing. As ancient snow patches begin to melt—the ice and snow that protected such artefacts for millennia—there may be little time to sort and preserve these pieces of the past.
Today’s Norway is too hot in the summer and dry in the
winter for permanent snow patches and glaciers to form, and those that are
there now have survived in small dots tucked away from the sun’s heat and the
wind’s power. As the climate changes, however, these small, ancient snow
patches are disappearing at an alarming rate, according to scientists at the Norwegian University of Science and
Technology.
Geologists are using georadar to measure the thickness of
glaciers and snow patches, as well as GPS technologies to track movement
(glaciers are moving masses of ice and snow, while the snow patches are
stationary).
The researchers have found that some of Norway’s oldest snow
patches—5,000 years—are actually glaciers and are now thinning. This makes them
more vulnerable to the elements and more likely to disappear, leaving whatever
they once protected also exposed and vulnerable.
The loss of the snow patches will also have an effect on
wildlife such as reindeer, the scientists warn.
Signals: archaeology,
climate change, ecosystems, geology
Growing Pains for
Solar Power: Report from Timothy C. Mack
The Kauai Island Utility Cooperative in the Hawaiian Islands would seem to be the poster child for the increasing market penetration of solar power. KIUC has quintupled utility-scale solar capacity over the past year, but the path to the cutting edge has not been an easy one.
As MIT Technology
Review contributing editor Peter
Fairley recently reported,
KIUC’s growth problems are related to power fluctuations and the need for
back-up generators powered by diesel or gasoline, as well as to the failure of
the utility’s lead-acid battery banks. KIUC is trying again with lithium-ion
batteries, which are now rated for four to six times as many cycles and can
absorb any excess solar power generation that might occur, Fairley reports.
The lesson here is that foresight tools will always have a useful
role in accurate technology assessment and adoption analysis, especially
concerning the systemic impacts of new technology applications in new settings
and configurations.
Timothy C. Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc.
This report was adapted from the Foresight
SIGNALS Blog. Image: Courtesy of Kauai
Island Utility Cooperative.
Futurists and Foresight in the News: Ranking the Think Tanks
Future-oriented think tanks dominated what has become like the Academy Awards for public policy analysis. When the 2014 edition of the Global Go To Think Tank Index Report was released in January by University of Pennsylvania’s Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, U.S.-based Brookings Institution took home the prize as the top think tank in the world, followed by the U.K.’s Chatham House.
Prepared by program director James McGann, the report
highlights challenges and trends facing think tanks worldwide, including
decreased funding from private and public donors, along with donors’ focus on
short-term issues, and growing competition from advocacy groups for the
attention of both policy makers and the public.
Though most think tanks have an implicit mission to improve
the future, some groups, like the RAND Corporation and The Millennium Project, have
been pioneers in developing and applying foresight techniques in their analysis
of issues critical to the future. Among the future-oriented think tanks honored
in the 2014 report are:
The Best New Idea or Paradigm by a Think Tank was one of several special achievement categories added in 2013 (along with best conference, best collaboration, best use of social networks, and others), giving the peer nominators and reviewers more opportunities to highlight outstanding work by the world’s cadre of professional thinkers.
* RAND
Corporation: #7 in Top Think
Tanks Worldwide and #6 in U.S.; #1 in Best Transdisciplinary Research Program;
#2 in Defense and National Security; #2 in Education Policy; #2 in Domestic Health
Policy; #3 in Social Policy; #4 in Global Health Policy; #4 in Science and
Technology; #5 in Energy and Resource Policy; #6 in International Economic
Policy; #6 in Most Significant Impact on Public Policy; #7 in Domestic Economic
Policy; #9 in Foreign Policy and International Affairs; #19 in International
Development; #30 in Environment
* Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars: #10 in Top Think Tanks Worldwide and #5 in the U.S.; #2 in
Transdisciplinary Research Program; #4 in International Development; #8 in
Foreign Policy and International Affairs; #14 in Most Significant Impact on
Public Policy; #27 in Defense and National Security; #5 in Think Tanks to Watch
* Pew
Research Center: #7 in Top
Think Tanks in the United States, also earning high rankings for use of media
(#1), use of the Internet (#3), and advocacy campaign (#7).
* World
Resources Institute: #15 in
Top Think Tanks in the United States; #1 in Environment; #2 in Energy and
Resource Policy; #9 in Transdisciplinary Research Program
* Resources for
the Future: #34 in Top Think
Tanks in the United States; #9 in Energy and Resource Policy; #11 in
Environment; #18 Best New Idea or Paradigm
* Hudson
Institute: #31 in Top Think
Tanks in the United States; #41 in Foreign Policy and International Affairs;
#58 in International Development; #65 in Defense and National Security
* Worldwatch
Institute: #35 in Top Think
Tanks in the United States; #3 in Environment
* Information
Technology & Innovation Foundation: #49 in Top Think Tanks in the United States; #2 in Science and
Technology
* Canada 2020: #30 in Top Think Tanks in Canada and
Mexico and #59 in Think Tanks to Watch
* Institucion
Futuro (Spain): #137 in Top
Think Tanks Worldwide and #72 in Western Europe
* The
Millennium Project: #6 in
Best New Idea or Paradigm. The report did not specify a particular new idea or
paradigm, but The Millennium Project has recently developed the Global Futures Intelligence
System (GFIS), which certainly merits note.
The Best New Idea or Paradigm by a Think Tank was one of several special achievement categories added in 2013 (along with best conference, best collaboration, best use of social networks, and others), giving the peer nominators and reviewers more opportunities to highlight outstanding work by the world’s cadre of professional thinkers.
Signals: institutions,
public policy, think tanks
Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.
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Foresight SIGNALS is
a publication of AAI Foresight
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Managing Principal:
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tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652
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Consultant: Tom Warner
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