Vol.
3, No. 4 | February 2017 | AAI
Foresight
New No. 1 Think Tank
The
U.K.’s ChathamHouse
has been crowned the 2016 Think Tank of the Year, displacing the
Washington, D.C., based BrookingsInstitution
as the world’s top-ranked think tank on the Global Go To Think TankIndex. Chatham House also ranked second for the best new idea or paradigm
from a think tank, second in foreign policy and international
affairs, second in international development, fifth in defense and
national security research, eighth in environment policy, eighth in
global health policy, ninth in international economics, and 77th in
domestic economic policy,
The
annual index, produced by University of Pennsylvania’s Think Tanks
and Civil Societies Program, has come to be known as an “insider’s
guide to the global marketplace of ideas,” says program director
James
G. McGann,
senior lecturer in international studies at the University of
Pennsylvania. The index also ranks institutions by region, by subject
area, and by type of affiliation, as well as noting special
achievements such as most innovative policy proposal and best use of
media.
Future-oriented
organizations recognized in the 2016 Index include (in alphabetical order):
BrookingsInstitution
remains the top-ranked think tank in the United States, as well as
first in domestic economic policy, first in foreign policy and
international affairs, second in social policy, second in education
policy, third for best new idea or paradigm, third in international
development, third in international economics, fourth in defense and
national security research, fourth in transparency and good
governance, fourth in global health policy, fourth in domestic health
policy, seventh in environment policy, 18th in energy and resource
policy, 44th in science and technology.
InformationTechnology & Innovation Foundation
is 58th in the top U.S. think tanks and second in science and
technology.
HudsonInstitute
is 107th top think tank worldwide and 23rd in the United States, 34th
in defense and national security, 35th in foreign policy and
international affairs, 58th in international development, and 96th in
domestic economic policy.
TheMillennium Project
ranks 21st for best new idea or paradigm developed by a think tank.
PewResearch Center
is 19th in the top U.S. think tanks, as well as ninth for best use of
the Internet, 19th for best use of print or electronic media, and
82nd for best use of social media and networks.
RANDCorporation
ranks sixth in the United States and seventh worldwide, second in
defense and national security, third in domestic health policy,
fourth in education policy, fifth in global health policy, fifth in
social policy, sixth in science and technology, seventh in energy and
resource, eighth in international economics, 11th in foreign policy
and international affairs, 13th in domestic economic policy, 24th in
international development, and 30th in environment policy. RAND also
took the top spot among think tanks with outstanding policy-oriented
research programs and for best quality assurance and integrity
policies and procedures.
Resourcesfor the Future
is 27th in the United States, 15th in energy and resource policy,
16th in environment policy, and 18th for best new idea or paradigm.
WoodrowWilson International Center for Scholars
is eighth worldwide and fifth in the United States, fifth in
international development, eighth in foreign policy and international
affairs, 30th in defense and national security, 30th in global health
policy, 36th for best new idea or paradigm, and 81st in international
economics. The Index also named the center No. 3 of think tanks to
watch in 2017.
WorldResources Institute
ranks 154th worldwide and 16th in the United States, third in
environment policy, fourth in energy and resource policy, and 54th
for best new idea or paradigm.
WorldwatchInstitute
is 40th in the United States and sixth in environment policy.
Comment:
Notably for foresight work, three of the 10 think tanks AAI Foresight
has tracked over the last three years are the top three on the
Index’s list of best transdisciplinary think tanks: Wilson Center,
RAND, and Brookings; WRI comes in at number
nine. These 10 are by no means the only think tanks doing foresight
work, but they are among those we have long applauded for applying
futures methodologies in significantly useful ways. –CGW
Source:
2016Global Go To Think Tank Index Report by James G. McGann, Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP).
Special Report: The Robots Are Coming—to Make You Creative
By
William Halal, Owen Davies, and Hassan Syed
Futurists
have been forecasting the emergence and impacts of an artificial
intelligence (AI) revolution for many years, so it is satisfying to
see that AI is really starting to transform industries, entire
economic systems, and society itself.
But
there is also a palpable fear of robots coming to take away jobs.
Studies conclude that roughly half of present jobs, including
professional work, could be lost to automation, possibly leading to
mass unemployment and social upheavals.
TechCast
recently drew from the collective intelligence of more than 50
experts for a study on AI and work. The study suggests automation is
likely to eliminate about 20 percent of routine jobs by 2030, but
that the loss is likely to be compensated by about 10 percent of
workers gaining a guaranteed minimum income and another 10 percent
finding new jobs in creative work. We conclude that a combination of
government support and innovative enterprise could absorb this AI
threat and turn it into a new domain of creativity and understanding.
Results
and Conclusions: Muddling Through
Our
survey of experts shows that a majority believe a reasonable path can
be found through this difficult transition. We call this the Muddling
Through Scenario, a middle scenario in which adaptation to the new
technologies occurs organically through a combination of market
forces that produce new creative jobs and government support that
offers guaranteed benefits. Unemployment is contained at tolerable
levels.
Participants
in our survey (N=53) anticipate the following changes in the
distribution of labor in OECD nations between 2012 and 2030:
-
Complex manual labor: down from 19% (2012) to 18% (2030).
-
Routine labor: down from 35% to 17%.
-
Service and knowledge work: down from 34% to 31%.
-
Creative work: up from 4% to 15%.
-
Guaranteed minimum income: up from 0% to 8%.
-
Unemployment: up from 8% to 11%.
The
Possibility of a More Creative Society
This
is a modest study, and many complex issues are involved, yet we think
this forecast provides useful insights into how the AI issue can be
resolved.
TechCast
experts collectively judge that humanity will find its way safely
through the coming AI/robotics crisis as the world reaches a more
fully automated stage of development by about 2030. The adoption of a
guaranteed minimum income and the growth of new creative jobs are
likely to keep unemployment contained at 10 percent or so, which
would be bad but not a major crisis. Furthermore, the widespread use
of AI should increase the level of knowledge and intelligence to
unprecedented levels, fostering a society of creative change and
understanding.
The
key is to recognize that AI can automate routine knowledge work, but
there exists a huge, unexplored economic domain beyond knowledge:
creativity, entrepreneurship, vision, collaboration, diplomacy,
marketing, supervision, and other higher-order functions that are
uniquely human. Advanced AI may be able to solve tough problems, but
it cannot provide vision, purpose, imagination, values, wisdom, and
other capabilities that are essential for sound leadership and tough
choices.
This
study indicates a general belief that intelligent machines and
virtual assistants are likely to take over routine service and
knowledge tasks. The technology will remain limited, however, and
people will always want a real person to provide them human contact
and to handle tough issues. Staff is growing rapidly in universities,
hospitals, research institutes, and other advanced settings for these
reasons. The service and knowledge work sector could grow
dramatically, to 50 or 60 percent of the economy by 2030.
In
the end, rather than diminishing people, the net effect of AI may be
to enhance the value of these higher-order talents that are a unique
gift to humanity. This conclusion may seem contrary to many who are
convinced a disaster looms ahead. We respectfully suggest that, yes,
the robots are coming to take your jobs, but more creative work and
better support can also foster a more innovative, prosperous, and
thoughtful civilization.
William
Halal is professor
emeritus at George Washington University and founder of TechCast
Global. Reach him at halal@gwu.edu
or william.halal@techcastglobal.com.
Owen Davies
is executive editor of TechCast Global. Hassan
Syed is CEO of Bir
Ventures and partner in TechCast Global. A longer version of this
article will be published by Foresight:
The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy.
TechCast
Global (www.TechCastGlobal.com)
forecasts emerging technologies, social trends, and wild cards to
cover the entire strategic landscape for planners and decision
makers. Its research method uses collective intelligence to pool
background data and the knowledge and judgment of 150 experts
worldwide. This work is validated for accuracy, showing an average
error band of approximately +1/-3 years at 10 years out. For this
study, we asked our thought-leader experts to forecast the future
distribution of jobs across the occupational spectrum. The survey
data can be accessed at TechCast
Global,
and details of the complete study can be found in our forthcoming
article in the journal Foresight.
__________
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us your signals!
News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on
Foresight
Signals.
Contact
Cynthia
G. Wagner,
consulting editor.
Feel
free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any
stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon
that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight
community.
__________
©
2016 AAI
Foresight
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