Vol.
2, No. 7 | May 2016 | AAIForesight
News for the Foresight Community
>
Hot Topic: Megatrends and Future Research
>
Futurism in the News: Forbes on
Corporate Futurists
>
Moves in the Field: Millennium Project, Future Today Institute
>
Publication: The Third Wave, Steve
Case
>
Forecast of the Month: Bill Nye, on Recycling
>
Call for Papers: Education 2030 and Beyond
>
Mack Report: Arctic Amplification
Hot
Topic: Megatrends and Future Research
In
case you missed it, OECD released its 2016 report on megatrends
earlier this year, titled An
OECD Horizon Scan of Megatrends and Technology Trends in the Context
of Future Research Policy.
The analysis and conclusions should bring no surprises to
futurists—the top two megatrends continue to be population (uneven
patterns in growth, migration, and aging) and resources (the impacts
of climate change on water, energy, and food shortages).
The
report focuses three of its five megatrends on clusters of trends
within the global economy: the changing geo-economic and geopolitical
landscape, digitalization as a change driver in economies and in the
way we work, and growing gaps in wealth, health, and knowledge
contributing to global divisions.
OECD
also analyzes the technologies that promise (or threaten) to have
major impacts over the remainder of the 21st century, including the
Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, neurotechnologies,
nanomaterials, additive manufacturing (i.e., 3-D printing), and
advanced energy storage technologies.
A
relative newcomer to the list of impactful technologies is
blockchain, the database technology that made bitcoin possible. As
with all technological developments, negative outcomes are a
possibility. With blockchain, OECD warns,
“The
pseudo-anonymity of transactions raises several concerns around the
technology’s potential exploitation for illegal activities, ...
including
money laundering and transfer of value for illegal goods.”
The
final section of the report focuses on how research on such trends
can be improved to advance policy making. OECD calls for more open
access to scientific research (especially that which is supported by
taxpayers) as well as “blue-skies” research that is open-ended.
Citizen science and silo-breaking multidisciplinary research are also
trends that merit direction and support.
This
will require new skills, the report notes: “The
more open nature of science and the closer links science is building
with industry will require researchers to reinforce their ‘soft’
skills, including in project management, team-working, and business
and intellectual property awareness.”
Download
the report An OECD Horizon Scan of Megatrends and TechnologyTrends in the Context of Future Research Policy
Signals:
megatrends, policy, population, resources, technology
Futurism in the News: Forbes on Corporate Futurists
 |
| image: geralt / Pixabay |
So
you got that great job leading the foresight efforts of a major
corporation. Congratulations—but don't get comfortable, Forbes
warns in
a post provocatively titled “Why
Companies Need Corporate Futurists But Will Fire Them Anyway”
by
contributing writer Stephen Wunker.
Consumer-oriented
businesses such as Procter & Gamble, Ford, and Intel have led the
way in using corporate anthropologists, ethnolographers, and now
futurists to better understand the long-term social, economic, and
technological trends influencing their customers' choices, Wunker
writes. But today, startups can move from insight to strategy far
more nimbly than siloized corporations, putting competitive pressure
on futurists to produce actionable results quickly. If they don't,
out they go.
Wunker
offers tips to help corporate futurists keep their jobs: Become
multilingual in the company's languages so you communicate
effectively among the various teams of marketers, strategists, and
developers. Create a framework that everyone can understand, such as
“jobs to be done.” And put your trend insights into the context
of opportunities that are already relevant to the company.
“The
futurists that do the best job of preparing their companies for
what’s coming,” Wunker writes, “will be those that map their
insights to contexts, occasions and customer types that are already
on the company’s radar.”
Read:
“WhyCompanies Need Corporate Futurists But Will Fire Them Anyway” by
Stephen Wunker, Forbes, CMO Network (posted April 12, 2016).
Image
credit: geralt/ Pixabay
Signals:
corporations, futurists
Moves in the Field: The Millennium Project, Future Today Institute
*
The Millennium Project has added two new nodes—Armenia and
Tunisia—to its global network of futurists. The Armenian node chair
is Dr.
Artak Barseghyan of the Engineering Academy of Armenia and
the Tunisian node chair is Prof.
Jelel Ezzine, president
of the Tunisian Association for the Advancement of
Science, Technology and Innovation. Details: The Millennium Project
*
Futurist Amy Webb has relaunched her consulting firm Webbmedia Group
as the Future Today Institute. “We answer 'What’s
the future of X?' for a global client base using our data-driven,
six-part forecasting methodology,” Webb writes. “Our promise is
to inspire smart people to imagine what’s next and to help them
make better, more informed decisions, ensuring the vitality of an
organization in the face of disruption.” Details: Future TodayInstitute
Publication: The Third Wave, Steve Case
Subtitled
An
Entrepreneur's Vision of the Future, AOL
co-founder Steve
Case's
new book is both an homage to pioneering futurist Alvin Toffler and
an outline of where the Internet is taking us next. For Case, the
creation of the Internet was first wave and the development of social
media was the second; the third wave is the seamlessness of
interconnectivity that enables such transformative phenomena as the
gig economy, where more workers are independent contractors rather
than employees. See
TheThird Wave: An Entrepreneur’s Vision of the Future by
Steve Case, Simon & Schuster (April 2016).
Forecast of the Month: Bill Nye on Recycling
When
Business Insider asked
Bill Nye why recycling matters, the "science guy" and
author of Unstoppable responded
that resources once wasted will become valuable in the future. "I
predict someday people will be mining landfills," he said. See:
"We Asked Bill Nye if RecyclingMatters," Business Insider (posted
March 12, 2016).
Call for Papers: Education 2030 and Beyond
The
European
Journal of Futures Research seeks
papers addressing ways to transform education to "prepare
students for a future marked by complexity, uncertainty and
volatility." The editors request articles that use concrete
examples of innovative solutions for curriculum development,
integration of future competencies, and understanding of the impacts
of social and technological trends. Deadline for abstracts is June
15. Details: European Journal of Futures Research or contact editor@ejfr.eu.
Mack Report: Arctic Amplification
 |
| image: Noel Bauza / Pixabay |
In
his recent article for the Futures Centre's Forum for the Future, AAI
Foresight managing principal Timothy C. Mack reflects on the
complexities of the positive and negative feedback systems at work on
the Earth's polar regions and the impacts of—and on—human systems
and activities.
“Countries
adjacent to the Arctic region have been especially energized by the
opportunities offered by Arctic transformation,” Mack writes,
“including access to new resources and previously inaccessible
territories through dramatically reduced summer blockage of potential
shipping lanes has given a 21st Century ‘gold-rush’ feeling to
the region. While the shipping industry is a clear beneficiary from
the decline of summer ice, the thawing of permafrost is quite likely
to make many Arctic lands a sea of impassable mud.”
Read:
“What does Arctic amplification mean for the planet?” by Timothy Mack, Forum for the
Future (posted March 28, 2016).
Image
credit: Noel Bauza / Pixabay
Signals:
Arctic, Antarctica, climate change
__________
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us your signals!
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Foresight
Signals.
Contact
Cynthia
G. Wagner,
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Feel
free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any
stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon
that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight
community.
__________
©
2016 AAI
Foresight
Foresight
Signals is a publication of AAI
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