Foresight Signals: "The British Are Leaving! The British Are Leaving!" ... Alvin Toffler, the Future Was Then ... Fresco at 100 ... and more

Vol. 2, No. 9 | July 2016 | AAI Foresight

Hot Topic: Brexit's Alarms

credit: succo / Pixabay

Britons’ stunning but ultimately unsurprising referendum to withdraw from the European Union gave all of us much to reflect on, both about what led to this “Brexit” and about what lies ahead.

Why “unsurprising”? Because futurists have been discussing the rise of globalism and its discontents for nearly two decades, as exemplified by diplomat and futures educator Joergen Oerstroem Moeller. In his March 1999 article for The Futurist, “The Growing Challenge to Internationalism,” he warned of the tensions between the “elite” who favored internationalism and the “ordinary people” who increasingly felt that internationalism “fails to provide an answer to the problems they face.”


Foresight Signals invited Moeller to summarize the signals presaging Brexit. He writes:

Britain never shared the visions of the original six EU-member states. They perceived EU as a political enterprise, while Britain’s perspective was a beefed up trade zone. At all big negotiations it applied the handbrake vis-a-vis French and German initiatives. In 1979 Mrs. Thatcher said, “I want my money back.” When the Treaty of European Union was agreed in 1992, Britain got exemptions from the social chapter and the single currency (the euro).

At the recent general election, almost half of conservative MPs proved to be EU-skeptics. Many of them advocated leaving EU, which they depicted, often in a boisterous way, as some kind of a monster holding Britain back, fueling resentment among the electorate. 

credit: Kaz Okada

Prime Minister Cameron was returned to power in 2015 with an absolute majority and was forced to make good on his earlier pledge to hold an in-or-out referendum.

This coincided with a strong influx of workers from countries in Central and Eastern Europe, plus more than a million refugees/migrants coming into EU from the Middle East. The public felt that EU stood in the way for limiting migration, opening the door for the slogan “take back control over our borders,” striking a chord with the voters. 

Joergen Oerstroem Moeller is Visiting Senior Fellow, ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore, and former State-Secretary (1989-1997), Royal Danish Foreign Ministry.

Views from the field. Here is a sample of  other futurists' reflections in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote on June 23:

credit: succo / Pixabay

“Sad day for Britain as we choose isolation over connection, mono-culture over multicultural and stagnation over progress. I get that this was a vote to punish the establishment. Can't help feeling Britain will become a tax haven and the rich-poor divide will increase.” Rohit Talwar, London, via Facebook

“10 yrs ago I was asking Europeans: why does the EU express itself in petty bureaucratic rule-making that seems to directly undermine unity?” Josh Calder, via Twitter @Geofutures

“#brexit vs #bremain is really about culture vs. commerce. And we’ve got the same issues here in the U.S. #trump.” James H. Lee, via Twitter @jhlinde

“Expect lots more demographic age wars, especially as we live longer. Older generations won’t die off so fast = slow the pace of change.” heathervescent, via Twitter @heathervescent

“So many British friends with tech startups are now looking to move to Munich and Berlin from London. EU funding critical for them.” Sammy Payne, via Twitter @SighSam

“UK innovators: move to California! Our economy is only the 7th largest in the world but we love expats, and believe in global trade!” Paul Saffo, via Twitter @psaffo

Stepping forth to reassure the scientific community, Imperial College London, President Alice Gast and Provost James Stirling stated: “Imperial is, and will remain, a European university. ... We are very proud of the innovations, ideas and inspiration that come from the European members of Imperial’s global community. We are determined that political changes will not hold Imperial back from delivering excellence in research and education for the benefit of global society. We will vigorously defend our international values if they are threatened and will continue to think and act internationally.”

Notably, Imperial College London recently named its first Futurist in Residence, Future Files author Richard Watson, to work with the Imperial Tech Foresight initiative.

Image credit: succo / Pixabay

The Future Was Then: Alvin Toffler (1928-2016)

file photo

The only chance I had to speak with Alvin Toffler in person, the renowned author of Future Shock and The Third Wave (and arguably the most famous “futurist” alive) apologized to me.

I met him and his wife and collaborator, Heidi, at a conference on technology and the future in January 1995, in Washington, D.C., at which newly installed House Speaker Newt Gingrich also spoke (as did rising media star Arianna Huffington). With the national spotlight suddenly shining brightly on futurism, at least one news program interviewed Toffler but mistakenly identified him as representing the World Future Society.

While Toffler may have felt guilty borrowing the WFS mantle (he was a member of the Society, but not an officer or board member), the staff couldn't have been more delighted for the honor. That he is still recognized as one of the driving forces of the Society's founding in 1966 was made clear in current board chair Julie Friedman Steele's announcement to the membership of Toffler's death on June 27:

"The admiration for Mr. Toffler from the World Future Society is difficult to encapsulate,” she wrote. “From the earliest days when this organization began, he has been a friend and mentor. His insights about how society behaves when too much change happens too quickly helps to guide our new direction for The World Future Society."

Other tributes and recollections were shared across the foresight community. In sharing the news with the Millennium Project's network, CEO Jerome Glenn wrote, “Al was the best writer among us and clearly wrote the key book that alerted the world to continue change. Thank you Al for taking on the public mind of the world.”

As a journalist (and generalist) who only learned about futurism from working directly with writers, I feel the loss is not just of Alvin Toffler's vision, but of his voice and his ability to get others to listen, to think, and to understand. –CGW

Further reading: “Alvin Toffler, author of 'Future Shock’ Adviser to Leaders, Dies at 87” by David Henry, Bloomberg (June 29, 2016).

“Alvin Toffler, Legendary Author of Future Shock, Dies at 87” by Matt Novak, Paleofuture (June 29, 2016).

In Memoriam: Arthur M. Harkins, Educator

We were saddened to learn of the passing on May 17 of Arthur Harkins, a University of Minnesota sociologist dedicated to preparing his students for a world in rapid transition. He was 80.

“I have fond memories of working with Art Harkins in China at Anqing University, as part of the Leapfrog Initiatives at the University of Minnesota, that was designed to bring Chinese Education into the 21st century,” said AAI Foresight managing principal Timothy Mack. “We both spoke at a conference there, and it was clear that he was very well regarded by Chinese educators. As the Leapfrog director, he was also managing similar programs in Mexico, South America, and Pakistan and was both a visionary educator and a skilled diplomat when working with the Chinese government as they struggled with both global and domestic change.”

Prior to joining the University of Minnesota in 1968, Harkins was a lieutenant and pilot in the U.S. Air Force. In addition to his academic work, he was a consultant for such organizations as General Mills, American Express, 3M, Honeywell, and Minnesota Public Radio. He pioneered the development of “StoryTech,” which he described as a rehearsal process for defining and norming selected futures.

Further reading: “Popular professor, futurist Arthur Harkins pushed students to think ahead” by Shannon Prather, Star Tribune (May 28, 2016).

In the News: Jacque Fresco at 100

credit: Venus Project

Dubbed the “100-year-old man who lives in the future,” Venus Project co-founder Jacque Fresco was recently profiled by Bloomberg Businessweek on the occasion of his 100th birthday.

Fresco's work (with partner Roxanne Meadows) was frequently featured in The Futurist magazine, including the January-February 2002 cover story on his visionary sea cities designs. As technologies such as artificial intelligence progress, Fresco posits, humanity will have the resources it needs to analyze issues and generate ideal options for sharing earth's resources.

Reference: “The 100-Year-Old Man Who Lives in the Future - It's in the middle of nowhere in Florida” by Caroline Winter, Bloomberg Businessweek (June 10, 2016).

New Node: Sri Lanka

The Millennium Project has named Sri Lanka the 60th node in its global consortium of foresight experts. The node chair is Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, chairman and founder of Diri Saviya Foundation. Details: The Millennium Project.

Blog Report: Accelerating Futures

Science fact is rapidly surpassing the imaginings of science fiction, and it is this acceleration that could be doing us more harm than the technological developments themselves, warns NASA scientist Dennis M. Bushnell in the latest post for the Foresight Signals Blog.

“I have come to realize, perhaps belatedly, that technology applications are very near to being where we have thought they would go,” he writes. “The latency between conception and application is shrinking from a decade to only a few years or, in some cases, months.”

But because the human brain is evolutionarily developed to resist change, “the acceleration of technological change is causing growing rates of serious psychosomatic illnesses, including depression, which may manifest in increasingly terrifying ways,” Bushnell warns.

Read: “Accelerating Futures: Is the Future Really Now?” by Dennis M. Bushnell. Foresight Signals Blog (posted June 16, 2016).

Further reading: “Emerging Impacts of the IT Revolution upon Technology, Aerospace, and Society: Creating Problems and Enabling Solutions” by Dennis M. Bushnell (AAI Foresight, 2015) may be downloaded from AAI Foresight Reports.

WorldFuture 2016

Planning to attend the World Future Society's 2016 conference July 22-24 in Washington, D.C.? I'll be there as a member of the press, representing this newsletter for AAI Foresight. Contact me at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com if you'd like to hang out!

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

© 2016 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Designer: Lisa Mathias

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net

Accelerating Futures: Is the Future Really Now?

By Dennis M. Bushnell

With the possible exception of interestellar propulsion, science fact is now outpacing science fiction. Now, when we scientists meet with science-fiction folks to discuss possible scenarios, we end up giving them ideas more often than not.

Consideration of social and technological futures and their national-security implications has been a part of my “day job” for the past 20 years, focusing on safe and affordable autonomous air traffic control systems and personal aero vehicles for human use (potentially a trillion dollar a year market). But I have come to realize, perhaps belatedly, that technology applications are very near to being where we have thought they would go. The latency between conception and application is shrinking from a decade to only a few years or, in some cases, months. And applications are producing capabilities that, in an increasing number of cases, no one anticipated.

Factors contributing to this shrinking latency include:

● Reduced capital investments required in many areas of technological development, compared with the requirements of the Industrial Age.

● The instant availability of raw data and knowledge due to broadband communications.

● A leveled technological playing field that increases the number of players in innovation.

● Faster access to more markets.

● Wider access to more development capital.

● More rapid simulation and modeling of concepts and products, allowing them to be triaged effectively, along with additive manufacturing technologies (i.e., 3-D printing) that distribute manfuacturing capabilities beyond factories.

● Development of new arenas of technological advances due to the synergies of merging different disciplines, such as nanomaterials, quantum computing, genomic and synthetic biology, machine intelligence, and energetics.

But society may be losing its grip on these advances. Developments are happening too rapidly for us (that is until we get our brain chips installed and direct-to-brain interfaces supersede our ordinary senses). Consider as a simple example that within less than a year a guaranteed income has gone from a divergent thought to something many nations now are seriously studying and experimenting with.

Human beings have a well-developed amygdala--the part of our brain that keeps us conservative. It does not like change, whether for good or for bad. As a result, the acceleration of technological change is causing growing rates of serious psychosomatic illnesses, including depression, which may manifest in increasingly terrifying ways.

This acceleration of change will potentially have an even greater societal impact in the future than will the changes in technologies themselves. It is imperative that futurists critically analyze now the impacts of the rapidity of changes, many of which are occurring concomitantly and in various phases.

The future may not really be now, but futurism must be.


Dennis M. Bushnell is chief scientist at NASA Langley Research Center (Hampton, Virginia). His white paper “Emerging Impacts of the IT Revolution upon Technology, Aerospace, and Society: Creating Problems and Enabling Solutions” (AAI Foresight, 2015) may be downloaded from AAI Foresight Reports. He may be reached at dennis.m.bushnell@nasa.gov.

Image credit: Gerd Altmann / Pixabay

Foresight Signals: A Futurist's Vacation Reading List

Vol. 2, No. 8 | June 2016 | AAI Foresight

Books for the Foresight Community: A Futurist's Vacation Reading List

For your summer reading pleasure (or winter, for our friends in the Southern Hemisphere), we offer a sampling of new and forthcoming future-oriented books, plus a preview of coming attractions.

Recent and New:

The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab (World Economic Forum, Jan. 2016). The latest step forward for industrial processes that have accelerated economic growth (with all the social, environmental, and political impacts such growth implies) is characterized by technologies that merge with human capabilities and, in many ways, supersede them. While acknowledging the great potential of such developments to improve the human condition, World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab also warns of disruptions from power shifts, security threats, and increased inequality. Signals: economics, technology, world affairs

The Future of the Professions by Richard Susskind and Daniel Susskind (Oxford University Press, Jan. 2016). The technologies that make the work of professionals more efficient could eventually also replace such skilled workers as accountants, architects, lawyers, doctors, and teachers. Scholars Richard and Daniel Susskind address critical issues this technological replacement raises, including who should own or manage online expertise, what tasks should be reserved for human professionals, and what the relevance of professionalism will bewhen the prospects for employment in the professions disappear. Signals: expertise, jobs, technology

Small Data: The Tiny Clues That Uncover Huge Trends by Martin Lindstrom (St. Martin's Press, Feb. 2016). As enamored as we all are of big data and the opportunities afforded from mining it, small data, or weak signals, offer savvy businesses and organizations another way “out of the box.” Signals: business, marketing, trends

 

The Industries of the Future by Alec Ross (Simon & Schuster, Feb. 2016). A former innovation adviser in the U.S. State Department, Alec Ross looks at technologies most likely to have major economic, political, and social impacts, including robotics, genomics, cybersecurity, big data, and fintech--financial technologies such as blockchain. Signals: business; technology

The Road Taken: The History and Future of America's Infrastructure by Henry Petroski (Bloomsbury USA, Feb. 2016). An engineering professor whose popular writing has examined both ordinary objects (The Pencil) and extraordinary failures (To Engineer Is Human) here focuses on the potentially devastating consequences of neglecting the mundane (but vital) bridges, roads, pipes, and other structures that literally support our society and economy. Signals: environment, infrastructure

4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to Creating Foresight by Richard A. K. Lum (Vision Foresight Strategy, March 2016). Professional futurist Richard Lum offers a handy primer for “attention-stressed and resource-deprived” leaders in need of guidance in guiding their organizations to better futures. The simple (but not easy) process covers analyzing the organization's present within the context of current trends, developing alternative scenarios, envisioning desired outcomes, and creating or revising goals. The book includes worksheets, exercises, and checklists. Signals: business, foresight, planning

Gray Is the New Green: Rock Your Revenues in the Longevity Economy by Karen Sands (Broad Minded Publishing, March 2016). This slim, self-published volume by “gerofuturist” Karen Sands is a loosely organized but passionately pleaded case for businesses (and particularly marketers) to recognize the economic power and skills still in the hands of baby-boom women. Signals: aging, business, marketing

The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will ShapeOur Future by Kevin Kelly (Viking, June 2016). Wired founder Kevin Kelly goes beyond predicting the next big things to analyze the future's potential based on the deeper forces underlying our technological innovation, such as interacting, filtering, accessing, sharing, remixing, tracking, and questioning. Signals: business, technology, trends

But What If We're Wrong? Thinking About the Present As If It Were thePast by Chuck Klosterman (Blue Rider Press, June 2016). Why is “what if we're wrong” a question we want other people to ask themselves, when we're so often reluctant to undertake the exercise ourselves? Journalist Chuck Klosterman reminds us that history is full of shifts of opinion as new discoveries render our cherished beliefs absurd. Among the great “what if” thinkers Klosterman interviews are Neil deGrasse Tyson, Nick Bostrom, and David Byrne. Signals: creative thinking, philosophy, values

You Belong to the Universe: Buckminster Fuller and the Future by Jonathon Keats (Oxford University Press, April 2016). For fans of the perennially inspiring planetary genius (aren't we all?), this overview of Bucky Fuller's life and work offers lessons from the unconventional thinking and comprehensive vision that created dymaxion houses and cars and the geodesic dome, among other innovations. Signals: biography, creativity, design, genius

BOLO--be on the lookout for these forthcoming titles:

Small Is Powerful: Why the Era of Big Government, Big Business and Big Culture Is Over by Adam Lent (Unbound Digital, Amazon Digital Services, June 30, 2016).

Future Value Generation: Do You Need to Create New Business Logics? by Daniel Egger (Amazon Digital Services, July 1, 2016).

Lean Logic: A Dictionary for the Future and How to Survive It by David Fleming (Chelsea Green, July 29, 2016).

Selling the Future: The Perils of Predicting Global Politics by Ariel Colonomos (Oxford University Press, Aug. 15, 2016).

The Future of Diplomacy by Phillip Seib (Polity, Aug. 22, 2016).

Minifesto: Why Small Ideas Matter in the World of Grand Narratives by Magnus Lindkvist (Lid Publishing, Sept. 6, 2016).

And we won't want to miss the three volume study of the work and life of pioneering futurist Elise Boulding (1920-2010), edited by her son, environmental scientist J. Russell Boulding:

EliseBoulding: A Pioneer in Peace Research, Peacemaking, Feminism and the Family: From a Quaker Perspective (SpringerBriefs on Pioneers in Science and Practice, Springer, Sept. 17, 2016).

Elise Boulding: Writings on Peace Research, Peacemaking, and the Future (SpringerBriefs on Pioneers in Science and Practice, Springer, Sept. 15, 2016).

Elise Boulding: Writings on Feminism, the Family and Quakerism (SpringerBriefs on Pioneers in Science and Practice, Springer, Sept. 15, 2016).

We'll have more books to preview at the end of the year, we promise! Authors and publishers, send announcements and review copies of your forthcoming future-oriented titles to Foresight Signals editor Cindy Wagner.

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

© 2016 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Designer: Lisa Mathias

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net

Megatrends ... Corporate Futurists Beware ... Moves in the Field ... and more

Vol. 2, No. 7 | May 2016 | AAIForesight

News for the Foresight Community

> Hot Topic: Megatrends and Future Research

> Futurism in the News: Forbes on Corporate Futurists

> Moves in the Field: Millennium Project, Future Today Institute

> Publication: The Third Wave, Steve Case

> Forecast of the Month: Bill Nye, on Recycling

> Call for Papers: Education 2030 and Beyond

> Mack Report: Arctic Amplification

Hot Topic: Megatrends and Future Research

In case you missed it, OECD released its 2016 report on megatrends earlier this year, titled An OECD Horizon Scan of Megatrends and Technology Trends in the Context of Future Research Policy. The analysis and conclusions should bring no surprises to futurists—the top two megatrends continue to be population (uneven patterns in growth, migration, and aging) and resources (the impacts of climate change on water, energy, and food shortages).

The report focuses three of its five megatrends on clusters of trends within the global economy: the changing geo-economic and geopolitical landscape, digitalization as a change driver in economies and in the way we work, and growing gaps in wealth, health, and knowledge contributing to global divisions.

OECD also analyzes the technologies that promise (or threaten) to have major impacts over the remainder of the 21st century, including the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, neurotechnologies, nanomaterials, additive manufacturing (i.e., 3-D printing), and advanced energy storage technologies.

A relative newcomer to the list of impactful technologies is blockchain, the database technology that made bitcoin possible. As with all technological developments, negative outcomes are a possibility. With blockchain, OECD warns, “The pseudo-anonymity of transactions raises several concerns around the technology’s potential exploitation for illegal activities, ... including money laundering and transfer of value for illegal goods.”

The final section of the report focuses on how research on such trends can be improved to advance policy making. OECD calls for more open access to scientific research (especially that which is supported by taxpayers) as well as “blue-skies” research that is open-ended. Citizen science and silo-breaking multidisciplinary research are also trends that merit direction and support.

This will require new skills, the report notes: “The more open nature of science and the closer links science is building with industry will require researchers to reinforce their ‘soft’ skills, including in project management, team-working, and business and intellectual property awareness.”

Download the report An OECD Horizon Scan of Megatrends and TechnologyTrends in the Context of Future Research Policy 

Signals: megatrends, policy, population, resources, technology

Futurism in the News: Forbes on Corporate Futurists

image: geralt / Pixabay

So you got that great job leading the foresight efforts of a major corporation. Congratulations—but don't get comfortable, Forbes warns in a post provocatively titled “Why Companies Need Corporate Futurists But Will Fire Them Anyway” by contributing writer Stephen Wunker.

Consumer-oriented businesses such as Procter & Gamble, Ford, and Intel have led the way in using corporate anthropologists, ethnolographers, and now futurists to better understand the long-term social, economic, and technological trends influencing their customers' choices, Wunker writes. But today, startups can move from insight to strategy far more nimbly than siloized corporations, putting competitive pressure on futurists to produce actionable results quickly. If they don't, out they go.

Wunker offers tips to help corporate futurists keep their jobs: Become multilingual in the company's languages so you communicate effectively among the various teams of marketers, strategists, and developers. Create a framework that everyone can understand, such as “jobs to be done.” And put your trend insights into the context of opportunities that are already relevant to the company.

“The futurists that do the best job of preparing their companies for what’s coming,” Wunker writes, “will be those that map their insights to contexts, occasions and customer types that are already on the company’s radar.”

Read: “WhyCompanies Need Corporate Futurists But Will Fire Them Anyway” by Stephen Wunker, Forbes, CMO Network (posted April 12, 2016).

Image credit: geralt/ Pixabay

Signals: corporations, futurists

Moves in the Field: The Millennium Project, Future Today Institute

* The Millennium Project has added two new nodes—Armenia and Tunisia—to its global network of futurists. The Armenian node chair is Dr. Artak Barseghyan of the Engineering Academy of Armenia and the Tunisian node chair is Prof. Jelel Ezzine, president of the Tunisian Association for the Advancement of Science, Technology and Innovation. Details: The Millennium Project 

* Futurist Amy Webb has relaunched her consulting firm Webbmedia Group as the Future Today Institute. “We answer 'What’s the future of X?' for a global client base using our data-driven, six-part forecasting methodology,” Webb writes. “Our promise is to inspire smart people to imagine what’s next and to help them make better, more informed decisions, ensuring the vitality of an organization in the face of disruption.” Details: Future TodayInstitute 

Publication: The Third Wave, Steve Case

Subtitled An Entrepreneur's Vision of the Future, AOL co-founder Steve Case's new book is both an homage to pioneering futurist Alvin Toffler and an outline of where the Internet is taking us next. For Case, the creation of the Internet was first wave and the development of social media was the second; the third wave is the seamlessness of interconnectivity that enables such transformative phenomena as the gig economy, where more workers are independent contractors rather than employees. See TheThird Wave: An Entrepreneur’s Vision of the Future by Steve Case, Simon & Schuster (April 2016).

Forecast of the Month: Bill Nye on Recycling

When Business Insider asked Bill Nye why recycling matters, the "science guy" and author of Unstoppable responded that resources once wasted will become valuable in the future. "I predict someday people will be mining landfills," he said. See: "We Asked Bill Nye if RecyclingMatters," Business Insider (posted March 12, 2016).

Call for Papers: Education 2030 and Beyond

The European Journal of Futures Research seeks papers addressing ways to transform education to "prepare students for a future marked by complexity, uncertainty and volatility." The editors request articles that use concrete examples of innovative solutions for curriculum development, integration of future competencies, and understanding of the impacts of social and technological trends. Deadline for abstracts is June 15. Details: European Journal of Futures Research  or contact editor@ejfr.eu.

Mack Report: Arctic Amplification

image: Noel Bauza / Pixabay

In his recent article for the Futures Centre's Forum for the Future, AAI Foresight managing principal Timothy C. Mack reflects on the complexities of the positive and negative feedback systems at work on the Earth's polar regions and the impacts of—and on—human systems and activities.

“Countries adjacent to the Arctic region have been especially energized by the opportunities offered by Arctic transformation,” Mack writes, “including access to new resources and previously inaccessible territories through dramatically reduced summer blockage of potential shipping lanes has given a 21st Century ‘gold-rush’ feeling to the region. While the shipping industry is a clear beneficiary from the decline of summer ice, the thawing of permafrost is quite likely to make many Arctic lands a sea of impassable mud.”

Read: “What does Arctic amplification mean for the planet?” by Timothy Mack, Forum for the Future (posted March 28, 2016).

Image credit: Noel Bauza / Pixabay

Signals: Arctic, Antarctica, climate change

__________

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

© 2016 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Designer: Lisa Mathias

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net