Vol.
3, No. 1 | November 2016 | AAI
Foresight
Elephants in the Free Trade Debate … A Foresight Opportunity Knocks … Futurists in the News
Hot Topic: Debating Free Trade’s Impacts
At
a recent Brookings
Institution–hosted
debate,
the point on which speakers were perhaps most in agreement was that
the question at hand—“Have free trade deals been a net positive
for working Americans?”—is not the most relevant question policy
analysts should be focusing on as they attempt to present the “best
ideas for the next U.S. president.”
 |
| Mireya Solís |
International
trade has been much discussed by the major party candidates, who
currently voice opposition specifically to the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP). However, another much-maligned trade deal, the
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), has had a strong record
of boosting trade and promoting integrated production platforms among
the United States, Canada, and Mexico, argued Brookings senior fellow
Mireya
Solís.
The big problem for the U.S. economy now is largely the result of the
China trade shock after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO),
she said. But 85 percent of manufacturing job losses are due to
automation, not trade.
 |
| William A. Galston |
Drawing
the distinction between trade and trade deals, Brookings senior
fellow William
A. Galston
agreed that China was a bigger problem than NAFTA. In 2001, the
United States lost 3.4 million manufacturing jobs, not just due to
the increase of imports but also to the offshoring of jobs, he said.
While Solís
called for better education to help workers become more flexible,
Galston argued that many workers—such as a 50-year-old factory
worker with a home that is still underwater from the recent recession
and with elderly parents to take care of—are not all that flexible.
 |
| William Reinsch |
China
is indeed the “elephant in the room,” said Stimson Center
distinguished fellow William
Reinsch,
observing that the United States does not have a free trade agreement
with China. But many of the arguments about the effects of trade
deals are based on data about goods rather than services, where the
United States leads, he said. Positive effects of trade deals include
lower prices for consumers, and while U.S. factories have closed down
and jobs have gone to Mexico, that is a small portion of the U.S.
economy. He reiterated the point that more jobs have been lost to
productivity gains from automation. Adjustment assistance programs
should be part of U.S. trade policies, he said, adding that workers
need to acquire a mix of new skills, not just in STEM areas.
 |
| Michael Lind |
Currency
manipulation is another “elephant” in the room of international
trade discussions, said Michael
Lind,
policy director of New America’s economic growth program. As well,
free trade agreements “are more like a form of domestic legislation
which has been outsourced to diplomats,” he said. An estimated 85
percent of advisors on committees for the TPP are from corporations,
where citizens have no influence as they do with Congress, he said.
“I would argue that it represents a disempowerment of ordinary
Americans by shifting things, which ought to be done through the
legislature, to the treaty process.”
As
for the future impacts of trade agreements, Galston summarized, “I
believe that agreements have been net positives for working Americans
in the past, and could again be net positive if the lessons of the
present are taken into account in our negotiations and in the
provisions of the treaty.” H observed further that the United
States has yet to find anything to replace the mass employment
manufacturing once provided, “and until we do, we’re in big
trouble.”
Reference:
Brookings
Institution. Download a transcript
of the debate (PDF). Photos:C.G. Wagner.
Foresight Opportunity
The
Fraunhofer
Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
in Karlsruhe, Germany, seeks an experienced foresight analyst for its
Competence Center to work in interdisciplinary teams to acquire,
manage, and execute interesting projects for clients from government,
the public and private sector, and international institutions.
Qualifications include a university degree in social
sciences/humanities, economics, or engineering, as well as
significant expertise in the field of foresight, including knowledge
of scenario processes, roadmapping, and visioning methods and
processes. Knowledge and experience in dealing with empirical social
research, publication databases, and relevant research and evaluation
tools are beneficial. Application deadline is November
11.
Contact
Dr.
Kerstin Cuhls, kerstin.cuhls@isi.fraunhofer.de.
Futurists in the News
- The forces and factors that worked for Korea and the world for the past 50 years will work no more,” James Dator, director emeritus of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, warns in an interview with Korea JoongAng Daily. “Continued economic growth with more jobs and more products should no longer be the main goal of Korea, or any country,” he says, as these pursuits are among the forces driving climate change, rising sea levels, global warming, and the food, water, and energy challenges that are the key issues the world is facing. Read “How will the world look in 2036? We asked a futurist” by Kim Jee-Hee, Korea JoongAng Daily (October 24, 2016).
- Economist Robin Hanson, author of The Age of Em, is profiled in the Chronicle Review, which questions whether his view of a future dominated by robotic human emulators is too far ahead of its time. “Like much of the George Mason [University] economics department, Hanson leans libertarian, but he has also dreamed up his own form of government, called ‘futarchy,’” writes David Wescott. “An enthusiastic student describes his true political philosophy as ‘meta, meta-everything’: questioning how we arrive at political philosophies in the first place.” Read “Is This Economist Too Far Ahead of His Time?” by David Wescott, The Chronicle Review (October 16).
- A goal of visioning its future led the city of Minnetonka, Minnesota, to hire futurist consultant Rebecca Ryan of Next Generation Consulting. The suburb is an affluent one but is seeing increasing competition from surrounding areas, Ryan explains. “Nothing is really going wrong in Minnetonka,” Ryan tells the Star Tribune. “[But] what’s Minnetonka going to do to raise its game? They can’t just watch and wait. If they don’t adapt, they’re going to be less relevant.” Read “Looking ahead to the next 20 years, Minnetonka hires a futurist” by Kelly Smith, Star Tribune (July 16, 2016).
- In an interview with the Des Moines Register, DaVinci Institute founder Thomas Frey describes major trends shaping Iowa’s future: farming by drones and other technologies; supercomputing that eliminates risk, disrupting the insurance industry; a skyrocketing need for drone insurance; public transportation dominated by automated vehicles; and a coming technological revolution that creates super employment. Read “6 trends that will shape Iowa's future. (Hint: Think farm drones)” by Joel Aschbrenner, Des Moines Register (October 20, 2016).
__________
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us your signals!
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Foresight
Signals.
Contact
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G. Wagner,
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Feel
free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any
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that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight
community.
__________
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2016 AAI
Foresight
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