Getting Ready (or Not) for Future Jobs, a Summer of Futuring, and Moves in the Field

Vol. 3, No. 7 | May 2017 | AAI Foresight

Hot Topic: Future Jobs—Or Not

The Pew Research Center [http://www.pewresearch.org/] has released the results of its survey of technologists, scholars, practitioners, strategic thinkers, and education leaders on the future of workplace training in the next decade. More than 1,400 participants responded to the survey, which Pew conducted with Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center [http://www.elon.edu/e-web/imagining/] in summer 2016.

In addition to addressing how disruptive technologies such as IT, AI, automation, and robotics may develop, Pew asked respondents to focus on the potential disruptions these technologies may have on capitalist systems and particularly on jobs.

While a narrow majority (52 percent) of the respondents said technological advances will create more jobs than they destroy, that doesn’t mean things will be easy for tomorrow’s human workers. For the 30 percent of respondents expressing pessimism about people’s prospects in a tech-dominated economy, a major concern is how people will meet their basic needs and the impacts of these needs on economic systems.

Credit: Geralt/Pixabay 

If, as Microsoft researcher Jonathan Grudin says, “People will create the jobs of the future, not simply train for them,” education and learning will need to adapt to new priorities. Human skills that will be required include creativity, collaboration, abstract thinking, complex communication, and social and emotional intelligence. But, Pew reports, about “a third of respondents expressed no confidence in training and education evolving quickly enough to match demands by 2026.”

Among the recommendations for adapting education and learning was to emulate the environments human learners already exist in, such as those of gaming and social media. Psychologist and futurist Dana Klisanin of Evolutionary Guidance Media R&D, wrote, “Educational institutions that succeed will use the tools of social media and game design to grant students’ access to teachers from all over the world and increase their motivation to succeed.… Online educational programs will influence the credentialing systems of traditional institutions, and online institutions will increasingly offer meet-ups and mingles such that a true hybrid educational approach emerges.”

The bottom line, according to AAI Foresight’s Timothy C. Mack, is that, “In the area of skill-building, the wild card is the degree to which machine learning begins to supplant social, creative and emotive skill sets.”

Read “The Future of Jobs and Jobs Training” [http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/] by Lee Rainie and Janna Anderson, Pew Internet (May 3, 2017).

art credit: Geralt/Pixabay

[https://pixabay.com/en/success-startup-businessmen-profit-2029803/]

Europe’s Summer of Futuring

Futures-oriented groups across Europe are planning events in conjunction with the Antwerp Museum of Contemporary Art’s exhibition “A Temporary Futures Institute” [https://www.muhka.be/programme/detail/660-a-temporary-institute-of-futures-studies] running through the end of September. Organized by Agence Future, [http://www.agencefuture.org/] the events include:

Humankind 2050, June 7-10, Jondal, Norway. The World Futures Studies Federation’s [https://www.wfsf.org/] annual meeting, themed “Peace, Development, Environment,” seeks to “envision, design and work towards creating peaceful, ecological and equitable futures for humankind for the next fifty years and beyond.” The event also marks the 50th anniversary of the Mankind 2000 meeting in Oslo, which “put futures research on the global map” and led to WFSF’s formation. Details at the WFSF conference page. [https://www.wfsf.org/our-activities/wfsf-conferences/22nd-wfsf-world-conference-june-7-10-2017]

Futures of a Complex World, June 12-13, Turku, Finland. Celebrating its 25th anniversary of academic research, the Finland Futures Research Centre at the University of Turku is holding its 18th international futures conference, organized in cooperation with the Finland Futures Academy, the National Foresight Network, Finland, and Foresight Europe Network. Among the keynote speakers will be John L. Casti of The X-Center. Details at the center’s conference page. [https://futuresconference2017.wordpress.com/ ]

Design - Develop - Transform, June 15-17, Brussels and Antwerp, Belgium. Organized by the knowledge center Applied Futures Research-Open Time and the Museum of Contemporary Art of Antwerp, this event invites academic and professional futurists from around the world to look at how futures are designed, developed, and transformed. Teach the Future [http://www.teachthefuture.org/] and the Association of Professional Futurists [https://apf.org/] are co-creating content for this “unconference,” and Jim Dator, founder of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, [http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/] will be the keynote speaker. APF will also conduct a professional development day workshop during the event. Details at the conference page. [https://ddtconference.org/]

Moves in the Field

James Dator is retiring as director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. [http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/] He will be succeeded by Jarius Grove, who is on sabbatical until summer 2017.

Jamais Cascio [http://www.openthefuture.com/jamais_bio.html] was awarded an honorary doctorate from the University of Advancing Technology in Tempe, Arizona. “The technologies and tools we make are as much artifacts of our culture as artifacts of our science,” Cascio said. “What a technology means—its social utility, its ethical footprint, its role in our lives—increasingly matters as much or more than what a technology does.” Watch UAT’s commencement, featuring Cascio’s speech, online. [http://www.uat.edu/commencement] 

Maria H. Andersen is co-founder and CEO of Coursetune Inc. [http://coursetune.com/] She was previously director of learning design at Western Governors University.

Marco Bevolo, PhD, is a member of the editorial board of the journal Research in Hospitality Management. [https://www.ajol.info/index.php/rhm] He is also partner, foresight and design thinking, at Amati & Associates. [www.amati-associates.com] He was previously research principal at Philips.

Michael Lissack is chair of Vistage Worldwide Inc. [http://www.vistage.com/]

Manjul Rathee is senior service designer at Shift - Product design for social change. [http://www.shiftdesign.org.uk/]. She was previously service designer at Mind of My Own.

Recent Publications

“Always Tomorrow Now,” [https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756717697336]an interview with Luiz Alberto Oliveira (Museum of Tomorrow) by Stuart Candy, World Futures Review [http://journals.sagepub.com/home/wfr] (March 2017). Opening in Rio de Janeiro in December 2015, Museu do Amanhã (the Museum of Tomorrow) received more than a million visitors in its first nine months. In this article, museum fellow Candy interviews curator Oliveira, exploring the “the story and thinking behind a cultural institution of foresight dedicated to questions rather than answers, experiences rather than artifacts, and multiple possible futures rather than an unalterable past.” See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at ResearchGate. [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313391057]

“Anybody out there? The Future of Tax” [http://jfsdigital.org/2016-2/vol-21-no-2-dec-2016/articles/anybody-out-there-the-future-of-tax/] by Gitte Heij (Melbourne University Law School), Journal of Futures Studies (December 2016), 21(2): 35–50. This paper uses the Three Horizons model of analysis, exploration, and futures imagination to consider “possible futures for raising tax revenue in an environment of rapidly evolving technology, automation, globalization, the rising power of powerful interest groups, and the trend of increased accumulation of wealth in the hands of fewer taxpayers.”

Special Offer: Futuristic Education Archives

In celebration of his 80th birthday (May 11) Arthur Shostak, emeritus professor of sociology, Drexel University, is offering to share many of the educational items he has collected since learning about futuristics as an undergraduate in the 1950s.

The materials available include books, magazines, and academic articles “of continued value in the study of the probable, possible, preferable, and preventable future.” He only requests reimbursement for shipping costs. If interested, contact him at arthurshostak@gmail.com.

In Memoriam

Robert William Taylor, 85, computer networking pioneer whose early work in the 1960s as director of the Information Processing Techniques Office at the Advanced Research Projects Agency is credited as a significant contribution to the development of the Internet. Read more in the New York Times. [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/14/technology/robert-taylor-innovator-who-shaped-modern-computing-dies-at-85.html?_r=0]

Donald Kitchell Conover, 85, a former vice president of corporate education for AT&T who led the Corporate Education Center at Princeton. He was also a member of the World Future Society, among many professional and civic organizations. Read more in the Bucks County Courier Times. [http://www.buckscountycouriertimes.com/obituaries/bcct/donald-kitchell-conover/article_47075802-bf12-5903-8c58-207703a44296.html]

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

© 2017 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Designer: Lisa Mathias

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net

Foresight Signals: AAI Foresight Annual Report

Vol. 3, No. 2 | December 2016 | AAI Foresight

AAI Foresight Annual Report, 2016

By Timothy C. Mack

As we near the end of 2016, AAI Foresight has much to be grateful for, beginning its third year of existence. At the top of that list is the continuing influence of Cynthia Wagner, who has worked her editorial and content magic on reports, blogs, and the Foresight Signals newsletter while holding down a demanding trade association position. Her naming to the list of top women futurists worldwide was long overdue, in our opinion.

AAI Foresight is also grateful to designer Lisa Mathias, who makes words shine, and we congratulate her on her new full-time position as designer at a prestigious association in downtown Washington, D.C.

The AAI Foresight Report series for 2016 continued to offer cutting-edge thought pieces, including Dennis M. Bushnell’s article on the future of humanity and an in-depth analysis on the impact of the Brexit vote on European foresight by Joergen Oestroem Moeller.

Our strategic partnerships in Europe have expanded into the publishing and human resources development arenas. That client base also continues to expand, with the expectation that new North American customers will come on line in 2017.

AAI’s long-term relationship with the Island of Singapore continued with an Arctic ecological change project and a consultation on rewiring a ministry-level trend-scanning program. As well, an ambitious rethink of electric power distribution strategies in the U.K. is just getting under way. And that segues into the electric power sector of AAI’s business, which is still chugging along at a steady pace, as it has for the past couple of decades (under the earlier AAI Research incarnation).

The MIT Enterprise Forum relationship is entering growth mode, and MIT has just announced a new national program in the United States, with the NW group (the second largest node after Cambridge) having a significant role in development. Part of that national effort will be the just-launched Engine Room, a national virtual incubator for longer-term R&D (similar to the original Bell Labs model), followed by a postsecondary “new technologies development and implementation” competition.

As for the “one that got away” story, which seems to have become a tradition, I would include both a briefing for a major Korean automotive manufacturer on the future of marketing, which went totally in house at the last minute (with no outside speakers), and an ambitious AAI program proposed for the oldest and largest Wild West rodeo event in the United States. For the latter project, the AAI team proposal went down to the last cut, with only two bidders remaining, but we were not chosen, for reasons that did not include our lack of experience and expertise.

Otherwise, the best news at our West Coast office location is the return of the rain. This sounds odd for the Pacific Northwest, but the last 18 months have been unsettlingly dry, especially during the wildfire season. So an end to sunny skies and Vitamin D is now underway.

Feel free to contact me for details on AAI Foresight’s work, past, present, or future. And in the meantime, please share your work with us—and the rest of the foresight community.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. Contact him at 202-431-1652 or tcmack333@gmail.com.

Call for Annual Reports

As a newsletter devoted to covering the global futurist and foresight community, Foresight Signals would like to hear from you. Share the story of your year in foresight with futurists everywhere!

Please send us a brief overview of your futures activities over the past year, such as career changes, awards or milestones, books and reports published, projects launched, appearances in the media, seminars or conferences organized and/or presentated to, or noteworthy consultations. Send your report to CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com by December 28.

__________

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

© 2016 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Designer: Lisa Mathias

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net

Elephants in the Free Trade Debate … A Foresight Opportunity Knocks … Futurists in the News

Vol. 3, No. 1 | November 2016 | AAI Foresight

Elephants in the Free Trade Debate … A Foresight Opportunity Knocks … Futurists in the News

Hot Topic: Debating Free Trade’s Impacts

At a recent Brookings Institution–hosted debate, the point on which speakers were perhaps most in agreement was that the question at hand—“Have free trade deals been a net positive for working Americans?”—is not the most relevant question policy analysts should be focusing on as they attempt to present the “best ideas for the next U.S. president.”

Mireya Solís

International trade has been much discussed by the major party candidates, who currently voice opposition specifically to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). However, another much-maligned trade deal, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), has had a strong record of boosting trade and promoting integrated production platforms among the United States, Canada, and Mexico, argued Brookings senior fellow Mireya Solís. The big problem for the U.S. economy now is largely the result of the China trade shock after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), she said. But 85 percent of manufacturing job losses are due to automation, not trade.

William A. Galston

Drawing the distinction between trade and trade deals, Brookings senior fellow William A. Galston agreed that China was a bigger problem than NAFTA. In 2001, the United States lost 3.4 million manufacturing jobs, not just due to the increase of imports but also to the offshoring of jobs, he said. While Solís called for better education to help workers become more flexible, Galston argued that many workers—such as a 50-year-old factory worker with a home that is still underwater from the recent recession and with elderly parents to take care of—are not all that flexible.

William Reinsch

China is indeed the “elephant in the room,” said Stimson Center distinguished fellow William Reinsch, observing that the United States does not have a free trade agreement with China. But many of the arguments about the effects of trade deals are based on data about goods rather than services, where the United States leads, he said. Positive effects of trade deals include lower prices for consumers, and while U.S. factories have closed down and jobs have gone to Mexico, that is a small portion of the U.S. economy. He reiterated the point that more jobs have been lost to productivity gains from automation. Adjustment assistance programs should be part of U.S. trade policies, he said, adding that workers need to acquire a mix of new skills, not just in STEM areas.

Michael Lind

Currency manipulation is another “elephant” in the room of international trade discussions, said Michael Lind, policy director of New America’s economic growth program. As well, free trade agreements “are more like a form of domestic legislation which has been outsourced to diplomats,” he said. An estimated 85 percent of advisors on committees for the TPP are from corporations, where citizens have no influence as they do with Congress, he said. “I would argue that it represents a disempowerment of ordinary Americans by shifting things, which ought to be done through the legislature, to the treaty process.”

As for the future impacts of trade agreements, Galston summarized, “I believe that agreements have been net positives for working Americans in the past, and could again be net positive if the lessons of the present are taken into account in our negotiations and in the provisions of the treaty.” H observed further that the United States has yet to find anything to replace the mass employment manufacturing once provided, “and until we do, we’re in big trouble.”

Reference: Brookings Institution. Download a transcript of the debate (PDF). Photos:C.G. Wagner.

Foresight Opportunity

The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Karlsruhe, Germany, seeks an experienced foresight analyst for its Competence Center to work in interdisciplinary teams to acquire, manage, and execute interesting projects for clients from government, the public and private sector, and international institutions. Qualifications include a university degree in social sciences/humanities, economics, or engineering, as well as significant expertise in the field of foresight, including knowledge of scenario processes, roadmapping, and visioning methods and processes. Knowledge and experience in dealing with empirical social research, publication databases, and relevant research and evaluation tools are beneficial. Application deadline is November 11. Contact Dr. Kerstin Cuhls, kerstin.cuhls@isi.fraunhofer.de.

Futurists in the News

• The forces and factors that worked for Korea and the world for the past 50 years will work no more,” James Dator, director emeritus of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, warns in an interview with Korea JoongAng Daily. “Continued economic growth with more jobs and more products should no longer be the main goal of Korea, or any country,” he says, as these pursuits are among the forces driving climate change, rising sea levels, global warming, and the food, water, and energy challenges that are the key issues the world is facing. Read “How will the world look in 2036? We asked a futurist” by Kim Jee-Hee, Korea JoongAng Daily (October 24, 2016).
• Economist Robin Hanson, author of The Age of Em, is profiled in the Chronicle Review, which questions whether his view of a future dominated by robotic human emulators is too far ahead of its time. “Like much of the George Mason [University] economics department, Hanson leans libertarian, but he has also dreamed up his own form of government, called ‘futarchy,’” writes David Wescott. “An enthusiastic student describes his true political philosophy as ‘meta, meta-everything’: questioning how we arrive at political philosophies in the first place.” Read “Is This Economist Too Far Ahead of His Time?” by David Wescott, The Chronicle Review (October 16).
• A goal of visioning its future led the city of Minnetonka, Minnesota, to hire futurist consultant Rebecca Ryan of Next Generation Consulting. The suburb is an affluent one but is seeing increasing competition from surrounding areas, Ryan explains. “Nothing is really going wrong in Minnetonka,” Ryan tells the Star Tribune. “[But] what’s Minnetonka going to do to raise its game? They can’t just watch and wait. If they don’t adapt, they’re going to be less relevant.” Read “Looking ahead to the next 20 years, Minnetonka hires a futurist” by Kelly Smith, Star Tribune (July 16, 2016).
• In an interview with the Des Moines Register, DaVinci Institute founder Thomas Frey describes major trends shaping Iowa’s future: farming by drones and other technologies; supercomputing that eliminates risk, disrupting the insurance industry; a skyrocketing need for drone insurance; public transportation dominated by automated vehicles; and a coming technological revolution that creates super employment. Read “6 trends that will shape Iowa's future. (Hint: Think farm drones)” by Joel Aschbrenner, Des Moines Register (October 20, 2016).

__________

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

© 2016 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Designer: Lisa Mathias

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net

Sharing Foresight Knowledge and Experience

By Lane Jennings

Sharing Foresight Knowledge and Experience:

A Report on the 2016 Meeting of the Public Sector Foresight Network and the Federal Foresight Community of Interest

Interest in how government looks at the future is undergoing a renaissance in governments around the world, and the role of networks in facilitating the exchange of information is critical. The integration of networks is particularly important in order to leverage knowledge.

Two government foresight networks were formed in recent years in response to growing interest in developing a critical mass of those working in government on foresight in the U.S. and around the world. In 2011, futurist Dr. Clem Bezold of the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) and Nancy Donovan of the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) convened a government foresight breakfast in Vancouver, Canada, which has since evolved into annual day-long meetings and the creation of an international Public Sector Foresight Network (PSFN) open to those in and working with government on foresight issues. In 2013, James-Christian Blockwood, then with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), organized the Federal Foresight Community of Interest (FFCoI), which has since conducted quarterly meetings drawing officials from over 50 U.S. federal agencies. Both networks decided to combine forces to organize a joint meeting in 2016 in order to facilitate the exchange of diverse views and best practices by U.S. and international foresight officials.

On July 22, these two government foresight networks met for a groundbreaking joint meeting in Washington, D.C., to share knowledge on best practices in identifying emerging trends and to discuss issues such as how foresight can be incorporated into decision making. With close to 100 registered, members of the international PSFN and the U.S. FFCoI discussed issues on how emerging trends can be incorporated into government planning and policies. Countries represented included Canada, China, Korea, Singapore, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, including attendees from over 25 U.S. federal agencies.

Held at the U.S. Bureau of Prisons, the July 22 meeting opened with remarks by Bezold and Donovan speaking for PSFN, along with Jason Stiles of the U.S. Bureau of Prisons (BOP) and Joe Moore from VA on behalf of the FFCoI.

The first speaker, John Basso from the VA, outlined what turned out to be the overriding message of the day: that, to be effective, foresight practitioners must understand the goals and values of government and business leaders and be prepared to couch their proposals in terms those leaders could relate to and understand. Using examples from government agencies whose attempts at foresight produced differing results, Basso demonstrated how sustaining foresight is only possible when deep scanning is not simply performed by outside “experts” who come in, write up their report, and leave again, but when the importance of foresight is embraced by management and its value is demonstrated to staff throughout an entire organization so that it becomes an integral part of ongoing operations.

Stephen Sanford of GAO followed up by pointing out key attributes of successful foresight programs. These included:

* convincing stakeholders at all levels, from funders and administrators to department staff and those they serve—the general public—that foresight is not a fad but a fundamental element in effective policy;

* developing persuasive narratives based on existing institutional goals and values to indicate how foresight can enhance outcomes;

* busting silos and engaging all levels of staff by forming hybrid teams to develop and integrate design strategies; and

* rapidly prototyping so as to make results visible to stakeholders within a reasonable time.

Joe Greenblott of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) then described how a one-year strategic foresight pilot project conducted by his agency built upon lessons learned from past foresight projects by directly involving representatives from across EPA, engaging agency experts and managers throughout the project, and focusing on emerging challenges and opportunities for which actionable recommendations could be developed. Noting that OMB Curricular A-11 (Preparation, Submission, and Execution of the Budget) now encourages agencies to integrate strategic foresight into the strategic planning and review process, Greenblott went on to describe how his agency first set up an 18-member “Lookout Panel” to assure broad agency involvement in the foresight process, with panel members committing up to 10 percent of their time to participate in the project. Over the course of the pilot, the panel members participated in training on strategic foresight methods, scanned media for evidence of emerging issues likely to impact EPA operations, held strategic discussions with thought leaders within and outside of EPA, and communicated their findings to leadership.

Peter Padbury of Policy Horizons Canada, a foresight center in the Canadian government, spoke about emerging challenges in his country in the 2015-2030 time frame and the progress of foresight efforts currently under way to assess these. Policy Horizons serves the senior management community by identifying emerging issues and policy challenges that could impact the country in the 10- to 15-year time frame. Most of Policy Horizons’ studies explore Canadian issues in a global context. He emphasized the value of surfacing and working directly with the mental models held by the various stakeholders as a tool to understand the system and how it could evolve under different conditions. Where possible it is particularly useful to understand the mental models of key decision makers as they are more likely to pay attention to the study to see what you have done with their model. Also, instead of merely warning of perceived dangers, Padbury stressed the value of presenting upcoming policy challenges in terms of the new opportunities they might present. He also emphasized that surfacing and testing the core assumptions buried in new policy proposals is a very useful exercise that can provide a context for new policy development.

Padbury outlined some of the early findings from an ongoing study on the emerging economy. A number of new technologies (including AI, data analytics, sensors, robotics, the Internet of Things, blockchain, synthetic biology, etc.) are the infrastructure for a new digital global economy that will dramatically change the nature of manufacturing, services, and natural resources exploitation. It will likely enable the rise of virtual corporations (platforms) that use all-digital value chains to connect virtual workers, AI, and other resources on an as-needed basis to deliver customized goods and services to people anywhere in the world. There are many potential surprises. For example, a number of goods and services will be much cheaper or nearly free, he said. This could lead to an era where “consumer welfare” is increasing in some desirable ways, but we confront a long period of deflation during the transition years. The emergence of this global digital economy, he asserted, may radically alter the traditional roles of government institutions at every level, making some traditional instruments (such as taxation, trade barriers, and employment standards) largely ineffective.

The next three speakers, Ibon Zugasti from Prospektiker, the foresight unit of the Basque worker-owned conglomerate Mondragon, and M. Gotzone Sagardui and Juan Ibarreche from the employment agency of the government in the Basque region of Spain, reported on a study of employment scenarios to 2030 adapted to the Basque region from the Millennium Project's 2050 Work &Technology Study. For the Basque region, forecasts were developed for 2030. These forecasts identified disruptions but saw lower worker displacement for the region than did the Millennium Project study, as well as a different pattern of technologies that would displace jobs. Sagardui noted that the 2030 study reinforced Basque employment and guaranteed-income policy. She presented the consistent successes achieved over the past 25 years by programs tailored to the specific needs of citizens in their local region to reduce poverty and unemployment to levels far below those of Spain as a whole or even the average levels of the entire EU. With some 2.1 million native inhabitants, the Basque region occupies a mountainous area on the border between northern Spain and southern France and includes the important port and manufacturing center of Bilbao. Beginning with surveys and in-depth interviews, Basque officials identified the principal desires of their citizens, and instituted long-term programs of employment and income support that reduced unemployment levels from 16 percent in 1984 to 5.9 percent in 2014. While overall poverty levels in Spain as a whole remain around 9 percent, in the Basque region they are only about 3 percent, having the same Gini index of income equality as Sweden. Acknowledging the advantages of a relatively small but culturally coherent area like the Basque region, these speakers argued that establishing carefully selected and widely supported goals based on research techniques and using modified assumptions reflecting conditions specific to their own region have been largely responsible for the successes achieved.

James-Christian Blockwood of GAO, appearing in his role as a member of the National Academy of Public Administration’s Panel on Strategic Foresight, spoke about the special challenge of preparing foresight recommendations for presidential transition teams. The panel’s three recommendations are, first, to set up a task force on current problems with long-range implications that will be prepared to recommend policies appropriate for beginning to address these within the first 100 days of the new administration; second, to better integrate foresight into government agencies at all levels; and third, to assure that existing foresight networks can be drawn on to aid in decision making. These are ambitious recommendations, but ably supported by the OMB’s regulations promoting foresight in government decision making and management. Additional details on the mission of NAPA and its panel on strategic foresight are available online at http://www.napat16.org/t16-panels/bringing-strategic-foresight-to-bear-in-program-planning-and-management.html.

Tracey Wait of Policy Horizons Canada then reported on the role of foresight activity in support of Canadian government at the national level. Policy Horizons works to increase the foresight capacity of Canadian agencies, co-creates knowledge through foresight across the public service, and issues reports (such as the one presented by Peter Padbury above). By focusing on emerging challenges and opportunities in the 10- to 15-year time frame, Policy Horizons can provide a context to help make short- and medium-term planning more robust and strategic. In both countries, the role of foresight teams is to gather information, engage in the policy dialogue, and offer advice recognizing that there is no guarantee that their findings or recommendations will be accepted and implemented.

Chris Mihm, also from GAO but speaking personally, addressed the significance of the recently adopted 17 Strategic Development Goals (SDGs) to guide and inspire national and international efforts to improve living conditions for people around the world. Unlike previous guidelines aimed primarily at bringing developing nations closer to the norms already common among the wealthy nations of the Northern Hemisphere, the SDGs apply equally to nations North and South, and challenge them to achieve measurable improvements from current levels in all areas within the next 15 years. While no sanctions or penalties for failure are included, Mihm sees good reason to hope that an overwhelming majority of the world’s governments will adopt new strategies to improve the measurement and reporting of conditions affecting all segments of their populations and make significant efforts to improve quality of life and opportunities for self-betterment in every region and at every level of society.

Catarina Tully from the School of International Futures, former strategy project director at the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, and former adviser to the prime minister, followed up by assessing the potential impact of the UN’s SDGs to empower and inspire ordinary citizens and promote what she termed “frugal foresight” (i.e., more cost-effective efforts by government agencies to improve people’s quality of life). Foresight efforts by government have often faltered in the past because they failed to make a credible case for success when presented to the general public. The democratic process, involving frequent elections, makes long-term thinking difficult and tends to discourage elected officials from making use of foresight studies. Tully’s goal is to change how existing governments view their function and to encourage them to legislate less and interact more directly with people at all levels. She cited Finland, Israel, and Costa Rica as nations that have achieved progress by moving in this direction. While conceding that goals alone are not sufficient, and that factors such as extremist violence and widespread corruption pose significant roadblocks to progress, Tully expressed confidence that the next 18 months will prove a crucial period and establish the viability of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.

To round out the meeting, Jason Stiles (BOP) invited participants to propose topics that might be addressed at future meetings or suggest alternative ways to meet and share opinions as a group. Among the suggestions offered were:

* meeting more often via the Internet;

* assessing the results of past foresight efforts in greater detail. It was pointed out that convincing leaders and the general public that foresight was a useful exercise would be far easier if it were possible to cite specific beneficial outcomes from a variety of past experiences;

* focusing on how to address indicators far enough in advance so that potential crises might be avoided instead of merely reacted to;

* having more presenters at one time, perhaps by holding poster sessions;

* looking at how experiential gaming can be utilized in foresight exercises;

* examining how the growing crisis of legitimacy and disaffection with government and institutions may impact foresight efforts; and

* seeking some way to address belief issues in foresight—i.e., strengthening helpful beliefs and uprooting or downplaying bad ones.

The meeting highlighted the extensive and evolving foresight efforts in Spain, Canada, U.S. federal agencies, and globally (particularly around the Sustainable Development Goals). The meeting itself clearly left participants with a favorable impression of the organizers, the speakers, and the level of comments and questions offered by members of the audience.

Lane Jennings is former managing editor of World Future Review and currently serves on its editorial board. 

Acknowledgments: AAI Foresight thanks Clem Bezold, Nancy Donovan, and participants in the meeting for their contributions to, and review of, this report. For more information, contact Bezold at cbezold@altfutures.org or Donovan at nancyjmdonovan@gmail.com.

Copyright 2016 AAI Foresight.