Foresight SIGNALS

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

Friday, July 17, 2015

Taking Personal Responsibility for Larger Issues

By Timothy C. Mack

During my last year as president of the World Future Society, I had a very interesting experience concerning people’s feelings about the future. I had been asked to talk about the future of communications technology to a group of senior corporate vice presidents, largely U.S. based. After delivering what I thought was a rather effective (and well received) analysis on the growth of “white noise” in modern society and response strategies, we came to the Q&A discussion, which turned out to be 20 minutes or more.

Timothy C. Mack

Although a few questions did relate to the content of my presentation, the majority of audience inquiries keyed off of the speaker introduction, which mentioned that I was retiring in a few months to an island in Puget Sound, north of Seattle. The myriad of questions all had an “end times” feel to them, including how I was preparing for catastrophic weather, resource shortfalls, civil unrest, and so on.

What was striking about all these questions normally associated with evangelical Christians (especially from upper-middle-class citizens of a relatively secular orientation) was their highly personal nature—e.g., “How can I, my family, or even my community mitigate the risks of future catastrophes?” This is in contrast with a more classical orientation toward the larger scale—e.g. “How can humanity (or even our nation) mitigate coming risks?”

Many commentators have lamented the decline in a broader social sense among younger generations worldwide, such as the Millennials, but this audience was mid-career or older. They seemed to be very focused on bringing the future issue down to a very personal level. I wondered, is this a broader trend that others have noticed? For example, are there many who are beginning to feel that small-scale responses are more likely to be effective than broader policy change in dealing with challenges such as climate change, economic instability, or public safety?

One interpretation might be an increasing lack of conviction that more traditional vehicles of public problem solving—such as legislatures, elected officials of all stripes, or even the Third Estate—currently inspire broad confidence in their ability to find solutions and effectively implement them on behalf of the general public. But this wondering aloud approach is not very effective either, without a larger level of dialogue—both on the accuracy of the above observation and on potential responses.

Accordingly, I am issuing a challenge to readers of AAI ForesightSignals to help us shape this discussion, in terms of both its relevance and its potential direction. So I ask you: “Is concern about the future growing while confidence in our ability to affect its course declines?”

Please share your thoughts on this question, and other questions about which you, too, are now wondering out loud. Log in here and use the comment box below, or send your reflections to me at tcmack333@gmail.com.

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Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight.

Friday, July 3, 2015

Signals: Rising China... Unfit Children... Sesame Futures... and more

Vol. 1, No. 17 | July 7, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals:

> The Challenges of a Rising China
> Children’s Fitness Levels Are Falling Fast
> Earthquake Prediction in Developing Countries
> Sesame: The Seed of the Future?

The Challenges of a Rising China

China is rising as a global economic power, but “it’s also a developing country with a postcolonial chip on its shoulder,” Thomas J. Christensen, director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, said at a June 25 Brookings Institution forum for his new book, The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power.

Noting that China’s military has grown faster than its economy, Christensen said security has become a major challenge that the U.S. diplomatic corps is not particularly well prepared to deal with. China’s military power is not yet a match for the United States, but it is potentially capable of creating disruptions for many U.S. allies and strategic partners in China’s neighborhood.

Global problems cannot be solved without China’s participation, said Christensen, who was deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs from 2006 to 2008. As a developing country (with approximately the same per capita GDP as Ecuador), China has no social safety net of its own and is neither prepared nor motivated to assist places like Greece.

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, “China is stronger overseas and weaker, less secure, at home,” Christensen said. “That changes how they behave.” Influencing China’s choices and actions on global issues, such as climate change or North Korea’s nuclear proliferation, will require a better understanding of its mind-set.

“Accept the Chinese’ strong nationalism, and praise China’s efforts in order to encourage its cooperation,” Christensen said. He recommended that the United States invite China to solve problems like North Korea; if they don’t step up, then turn to others. “That gets their attention and shows them it’s in their interest.”

Audio and transcript: Brookings Institution Events

Reference: The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power by Thomas J. Christensen, W.W. Norton, 2015, $27.95.

Signals: Asia, China, diplomacy, global problems

Children’s Fitness Levels Are Falling Fast

The least-fit kid 15 years ago could be among the fittest kids today, according to University of Essex researcher Gavin Sandercock. While obesity rates are down, as measured by body mass index (BMI), children ages 10–11 today are slower, weaker, and have less stamina than their counterparts in 1998.

Less than 5 percent of the 300 schoolchildren participating in the study were rated as obese, which suggested that today’s slimmer cohorts could perform better on fitness tests. This was not the case, Sandercock reports.

“Simply put, if you weigh less it is easier to run and turn so you should do better on our test,” Sandercock stated in a press release. “But despite finding a lower average BMI in the children measured in 2014 than in 2008 we found the children still couldn’t run as fast, showing they had even lower cardiorespiratory fitness.”

Like obesity, this lack of physical fitness is a symptom of inactivity, according to Sandercock. He recommends new measures that go beyond BMI indicators to assess children’s “physical literacy,” including such fundamental movement skills such as running, hopping, throwing, catching, and jumping.

Source: University of Essex

Signals: children, health, obesity

Earthquake Prediction in Developing Countries

Geological evidence from the past could provide an affordable method of predicting earthquakes in developing countries without access to extensive seismic monitoring.

Researchers at Australia’s James Cook University found evidence of land deformation and fluidization (quicksand-like displacement) in the ground at the site of a large Tanzanian earthquake 25,000 years ago. The amount of upward displacement was unprecedented in a continental setting, according to lead researcher Hannah Hilbert-Wolf.

“This could be a major concern for the growing urban population of East Africa, which has similar tectonic settings and surface conditions,” she said in a press statement.

Insights from the rock record on the timing and frequency of past geological events could enable researchers to predict how the ground will behave in future seismic events.

“We can now use this to evaluate how the ground would deform in a modern earthquake,” according to supervising researcher Eric Roberts. “This is important because the approach is inexpensive and can be used to model how structures might be affected by future events, providing a valuable tool in hazard assessment.”

As human populations grow, such powerful shakeups as the 1910 African earthquake will affect far more lives. Tanzania’s population in 1910 was 7.5 million, but by 2050 it is predicted to reach 130 million people living primarily in urban settings more susceptible to damage.

Source: James Cook University

Reference: “Giant Seismites and Megablock Uplift in the East African Rift: Evidence for Late Pleistocene Large Magnitude Earthquakes” by Hannah Louise Hilbert-Wolf and Eric M. Roberts, PLOS ONE (June 4, 2015), DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0129051

Signals: Africa, earthquakes, geology, hazard assessment

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Special Announcement

WorldFuture 2015, the annual conference of the World Future Society, will be held at the Hilton San Francisco Union Square on July 24-26, with an array of preconference Master Classes available July 23 and 24 and a postconference “Professional’s Toolkit” on July 25.

The conference theme this year is “Making the Future,” with tracks on Technology and Innovation, the Business of Foresight, Global Issues, Practicum, and Millennial/Youth Activities.

Among the speakers scheduled are Karl Albrecht, Joel Barker, David Bengston, Clem Bezold, Peter Bishop, Tsvi Bisk, Maree Conway, Jose Cordeiro, Cornelia Daheim, Jim Dator, Mike Dockry, Thomas Frey, Jerome C. Glenn, Ted Gordon, Linda Groff, Andrew Hines, James Lee, Thomas Lombardo, Michael Marien, Wendy McGuinness, Concepción Olavarrieta, Joe Pelton, Yvette Montero Salvatico, Wendy Schultz, Art Shostak, Rick Smyre, David Pearce Snyder, Paul Tinari, Mariana Todorova, Carrie Vanston, Richard Yonck, and Michael Zey.

WorldFuture 2015 is an opportunity to meet old friends and build new partnerships as you make tomorrow’s world today.

Details: World Future 2015

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Sesame: The Seed of the Future?

From tahini and falafel in the Middle East to hamburger buns and bagels in New York, sesame seeds are popular around the world. The seeds are rich in protein, minerals, and healthy oils, but the crop is difficult to harvest. Yields are low, with a high percentage of seeds unsuitable for consumption.

To boost their agricultural viability, researcher Zvi Peleg of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem screened more than 100,000 sesame seed variants. He developed a new cultivar that promises higher yields and better suitability for sustainable agriculture when used in rotation with other cereal crops.

Global sesame production is 4.4 million tons a year, but the new seed could contribute to a projected 5 to 10 percent growth value annually, Peleg suggests.

“The increase in global demand for sesame products as a health food has turned this highly domestic consumption item into an important export commodity for Israel,” Peleg said in a press statement.

Source: Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Signals: agriculture, food, innovation, sustainable farming

__________

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

https://www.createspace.com/5336151?ref=1147694&utm_id=6026

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Saturday, June 13, 2015

Signals: Wicked Futures ... @Heaven ... Foresight and Education ... and more

Vol. 1, No. 16 | June 16, 2015 | AAI Foresight

News for the Foresight Community:

> Conference: Wicked Problems Tackled

> New Book: Communities of the Future

> Retrofutures: The WELL and @heaven

> In the News: Mercedes Futurist Eric Larsen

> Mack Report: Preparing Educators to Prepare Students

A Message from Your Editor

With this issue of Foresight Signals, we are testing a slightly different approach for the stories we bring you twice a month.

Since launching in November 2014, Foresight Signals has offered you a mix of subject matter in each issue: research reports on general trends, news about members and activities of the foresight community, summaries from the AAI Blog and Foresight Reports, and dispatches from Tim Mack on his activities for the AAI Foresight consultancy.

We plan to continue sending the newsletter out twice a month (and it’s still free!), but we will alternate the content so that the first-of-the-month issue will focus on more future-oriented reports (trend signals), and the mid-month newsletter will focus on the foresight community (that’s you!).

Your feedback is always welcome! Send your thoughts, “signals” (story ideas), and news to me at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com. —Cindy

Conference: Wicked Problems Tackled

Last week’s World Conference of Futures Research 2015 (June 11-12) tackled “wicked problems” in Turku, Finland. Among the futurists participating on the program were Peter Bishop (Teach the Future), Cornelia Daheim (Future Impacts Consulting), Jerome C. Glenn (The Millennium Project), Tom Lombardo (Center for Future Consciousness), and Wendy L. Schultz (Infinite Futures).

Those of us unable to attend could catch a few highlights on Twitter:

Record broken at workshop I ran with Hazel Salminen at #futuresconference2015 today: 7 Mins until groups were enacting scenarios! Thank you! (‏@CorneliaDaheim)
What a great session by Otso Kautto & co: The Ritual Museum, this connects to the future! Thank You 4 great adventures at #futuresconference2015 (‏@KPetajajarvi)
Just got back from a mindblowing #CLA workshop with Sohail Inayatullah at #futuresconference2015 @assoPROSPECTIVE (‏@YvesPolCABON)
“Give a man a fish and he will eat for one day. Teach a man how to fish and he will deplete the ocean” —Ugo Bardi, University of Firenze (quoted by Linda Hofman ‏@FoodJuf)

Details: Presentations and reports from the conference will be posted as soon as possible at the official conference page. Catch up via Twitter at #futuresconference2015. Images via Twitter, ‏@mdufva and @AFcrew

Signals: futures research, methodology

New Book: Communities of the Future

Bringing the future from the abstract to the personal, Stephen and Joanne Aguilar-Millan have deployed their foresight expertise to examine prospects for five communities in rural Suffolk County, England, in the year 2030.

Communities of the Future: Tales From Suffolk In 2030 ($13.49; published June 1, 2015) probes the specific challenges that each of these communities faces and outlines distinct scenarios—one positive and one negative—that hopefully may inspire families, neighbors, and community leaders to chart a preferred course.

Stephen is director of research for the European Futures Observatory, and Joanne is a science-fiction writer and children’s novelist.

Details: Createspace, Communities of the Future

Signals: alternative scenarios, communities, rural life

Retrofutures: The WELL and @heaven

Social networking began on the Internet before there was a standard name for either phenomenon. Today, online message boards and chat rooms still exist in the age of Twitter and Facebook, thanks to a paradigm pioneered by Silicon Valley’s WELL (“Whole Earth ’Lectronic Link”").

In 1994, Stanford futurist Tom Mandel changed everything when his “Local Bug Report” thread on the WELL transformed from a general discussion on a current public-health issue to a publicly shared personal journey through illness to his gradual death from lung cancer. In a new book titled @heaven: The Online Death of a Cybernetic Futurist, early WELL denizen Kim Hastreiter, editor in chief of online magazine Paper, presents the months-long transcript of Mandel’s bug reports.

Hastreiter recalls the last post of that thread in her interview for Paper: “It said something like, ‘Tom passed away this morning. Nana was at his side and music was playing. This topic is now frozen. And if you want to get in touch with Tom you can reach him at Mandel@heaven.org.’”

Read “New Book @heaven Explores the Internet’s Earliest Social Network and the Incredible Story That Unfolded Within It,” Paper (May 25, 2015). Order @heaven at orbooks.com.

Signals: cybernetic culture, Internet history, networks

In the News: Mercedes Futurist Eric Larsen

Like many carmakers, Mercedes is pursuing driverless vehicles and has already tested driverless trucks on the Autobahn, reports Eric Larsen, head of research in society and technology for Mercedes-Benz, in an interview for the New York Times technology blog Bits. But Americans won’t give up their cars, he predicts.

In the U.S. market, family values are still very important among Mercedes’ affluent customers, Larsen says. Millennials with the means and desire to own big homes will need to drive farther for all the amenities they’ll demand for their kids.

“The solution is … privately shared vehicles,” Larsen says. “We have a business called Boost, where minivans drive children after school. They are like school buses, but door to door, and parents can track them with a phone app. They have a concierge as well as a driver, because the driver can’t leave the bus and walk the kid right to the door. A 7-year-old needs that. In this case, we’re selling a mobility service rather than a product.”

Read: “A Futurist Looks at Where Cars Are Going” by Quentin Hardy, Bits (June 10, 2015).

Signals: automobiles, families, suburbs, transportation

Mack Report: Preparing Educators to Prepare Students

In a special issue on the future of work in the Career Planning and Adult Development Journal, AAI Foresight managing principal Timothy C. Mack offers an overview of five drivers change for which future educators must prepare learners (tomorrow’s citizens, consumers, and workforces):

information technologies so ubiquitous that information becomes a wall of white noise;
environmental change, including compromised quality and supply of resources such as water;
lack of innovation toward workable solutions to complex problems;
the rise of machine intelligence that could introduce greater complexity to human problem solving; and
diminishing resources for solving problems, even when we can envision solutions that would work.

Of the various foresight tools available, the study of weak signals is one that Mack particularly recommends for educators. Weak signals are essentially early clues to new forces of change, often discovered outside of your principal field of study, and may indicate either potential threats or opportunities. Finding them involves expanding your network of sources for ideas, including listening to naysayers.

Other futurists contributing to the issue, guest-edited by Helen Harkness (Career Design Associates), include Andy Hines (University of Houston, Graduate Program in Foresight), Gary Marx (Center for Public Outreach), Aubrey de Grey (SENS Foundation), and Edward Gordon (Imperial Consulting), and Deborah Westphal (Toffler Associates).

Reference: “Challenges Facing Education, Training and Career Development in the Future,” Timothy C. Mack, Career Planning and Adult Development Journal (Summer 2015), Career Planning & Adult Development Network, www.careernetwork.org, published by Richard Knowdell.

Signals: education, futures methodology, learning

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Signals: GM Tobacco ... Hacking with the Fish ... and more

Vol. 1, No. 15 | June 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> GM Tobacco Could Boost Biorefineries

> Hackathon Seeks Sustainable Fishing Technologies

> Improving Productivity Requires Training Supervisors

> News for the Foresight Community

GM Tobacco Could Boost Biorefineries

Tobacco and genetically modified organisms are often viewed as enemies of human and environmental health. Soon, they may take on more heroic roles, thanks to a plan to use engineered tobacco as “green factories.”

Many countries, such as Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, have set ambitious environmental goals to decarbonize, which means finding substitutes for petroleum and the many industrial products on which they are based. Biorefineries to produce these alternative fuels and products require enzymes to break down biomass into sugars. But the enzymes are currently the most expensive part of the process.

To lower the costs, researchers at Bioforsk in Norway have their eye on tobacco, which has large leaves, is fast growing, and can be harvested several times a year. The researchers aim to insert genes into the tobacco to make the plants produce more enzymes, thus breaking down the cell walls of biomass more effectively.“

Many people are skeptical [of] GMOs, but in this case, we use tobacco plants with the help of biotechnology to produce valuable enzymes for industrial biorefinery,” says lead researcher Jihong Liu Clarke. I believe there are mainly benefits, because we produce cheap enzymes and use the tobacco plant in a health-friendly way.”

Source: Bioforsk, the Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research. Photo: Erling Fløistad

Signals: biorefineries, energy, GMOs, industrial products, tobacco

Hackathon Seeks Sustainable Fishing Technologies

The U.S. State Department is sponsoring a “Fishackathon” to encourage innovative approaches to sustainable fishing. Last year’s inaugural event united 150 volunteer technologists at five U.S. aquariums to build mobile phone apps for fishers in developing countries. This year’s event, June 7 and 8, invites coders, designers, and enthusiasts around the world to #codeforfish.

The efforts will focus on five key problem areas for sustainable fishing: tracking and monitoring fish catches, reporting illegal fishers, registering boats and licensing fishers, identifying fish species and educating others about their market value, and mapping fish stocks to better inform policy makers.

Examples of specific challenges presented to the Fishackathon participants:

Track aquaculture feed ingredients from the original source to the harvested product.
A tool to provide sourcing information and access to local, sustainable seafood.
An app to trace and determine a catch's origin within the Indian Ocean.

“The ‘hacks’ might approach the issues in a number of ways, but all center on finding innovative tools to either gather and synthesize data from the ground up, or disseminate information from the top down,” says Thomas Debass, deputy special representative for global partnerships at the Office of Global Partnerships in the U.S. State Department.

Source: “Five ways technology can help sustainable fishing,” Thomas Debass, Devex #innov8aid, The Development Innovators Blog (May 28, 2015). Details: fishackathon.co

Signals: fishing, innovation, sustainability

Call for papers! If you are working on a foresight analysis project, AAI Foresight would welcome the opportunity to publish your work in the Foresight Reports series. Please contact Cindy Wagner, consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com.

Improving Productivity Requires Training the Supervisors

Improving supervisors’ competence and reducing burdensome regulations are the keys to better productivity, according to a survey of small and medium-sized enterprises in Finland.

The costs of labor, particularly those associated with social security, were named the biggest obstacle to productivity, notes the study published by Lappeenranta University of Technology.

The new survey, a follow-up to 1997 research, revealed key changes in the sources of challenges over the past two decades. Previously, small and medium-sized businesses struggled with lack of resources, but now point to external factors such as legislation and their employees’ trade union activities.

Significantly, the companies surveyed also noted a lack of competence among supervisors as an obstacle for improving productivity. The researchers observe that, as productivity enables enterprises to thin out their workforces, the skills of supervisors take on more importance.

“Companies must see to facilitating the further education of their supervisors,” says senior researcher Sanna Pekkola. “Supervisors must also personally ensure that they have the required competence and maintain it. This requires a willing and active perspective with regard to further education and up-keeping one’s knowledge.”

Source: Lappeenranta University of Technology.

Signals: business, labor, management, productivity, training

News for the Foresight Community

In the News, CBS-San Francisco: Driverless cars are arriving ahead of schedule, and “the transformative impact is going to be vastly greater than we realize,” says Paul Saffo. While such vehicles may be safer for their occupants, they’ll also be massive data-collection machines—as susceptible to hacking as any other device, Saffo notes. Read more: “Why Driverless Cars Both Excite and Terrify Automotive Futurists“ (posted online May 20, 2015)
In the News, Fast Company: Robots and algorithms will replace jobs ranging from military troops to stock traders, says Graeme Codrington (TomorrowToday Global). But in 2025, humans will still be in hot demand for tasks requiring higher-level thinking and judgment, but they’ll be doing so “on demand” as freelancers or contractors. Joe Tankersley (Unique Visions) suggests a few new careers: “tribers” who can build ad hoc teams, urban artisan farmers and advisers, and end-of-life planners. Read more: “The Top Jobs in 10 Years Might Not Be What You Expect“ by Michael Grothaus, Fast Company (posted online May 18, 2015)
New book: The Future of Business edited by Rohit Talwar examines trends that will be affecting businesses over the next 10 to 20 years. More than 50 futurists contributed to the volume, including Maree Conway (“Foresight Infused Strategy”), Gray Scott (“Automation, Digitization, and Simulation”), and Dan Bubley (“Future of the Phone Call”). The book comes out June 11 and is available for preorder (discount coupon code rt1) at Fast Future Publishing.
New book: Lone Wolf Terrorism Prospects and Potential Strategies to Address the Threat, written by Ted Gordon, Yair Sharan, and Elizabeth Florescu, is based on a Real Time Delphi study conducted by The Millennium Project. The study explores the phenomenon of lone wolf attacks, including more than 100 case studies, as well as weapons that might be used in the future, emerging detection technologies, and defense strategies. Details: LoneWolfThreat.com
In Memoriam: Michael Michaelis (1919-2015). Former World Future Society board member Michael Michaelis died peacefully on May 19, less than a month before his 96th birthday. He lived in Chevy Chase, Maryland. After serving on the Advisory Council that led to the formation of the World Future Society, Michaelis was invited to become a founding board member in recognition of his vital connections with a vast array of thinkers and leaders in government, business, and academia. He also contributed two inspiring articles to The Futurist magazine during the organization’s formative years: “Building the World We Want” (June 1968) and “The Management of Change” (February 1971). A memorial is planned for fall 2015. Details: Washington Post, Legacy.com.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Signals: Smart Cities... Emotion Detection... and more

Vol. 1, No. 14 | May 19, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Data Sharing for Smarter Cities

> Emotion Detection and Ad Design

> On the AAI Foresight Blog: Bengston, Mack

> News for the Foresight Community

Data Sharing for Smarter Cities

An organic waste recycling depot on one side of town is close to overflowing. A biogas plant on the other side of town is running on empty and needs biomass right away. Today, this is a scenario of two problems. Tomorrow, a Smart Urban Services project would turn both problems into solutions.

A pilot project in Reutlingen, Germany, demonstrates how sensors and an integrated platform can connect these and other urban infrastructure facilities, such as traffic management. The data would not just be available to a central authority, but would be shared by local communities, companies, and residents, according to Inka Woyke, head of the Service Management team at Fraunhofer IAO.

This connectivity doesn’t just benefit individual services, Woyke says. Smart Urban Services will offer municipalities a competitive advantage for attracting businesses and employees by creating more efficient—and livable—cities.

Partnering with Fraunhofer IAO in the Smart Urban Services consortium are the Institute for Human Factors and Technology Management IAT at the University of Stuttgart, Input Consulting GmbH, and the cities of Chemnitz and Reutlingen.

Source: Fraunhofer IAO. More information: Smart Urban Services. Image: Tim RT Photography, via Flickr (Creative Commons).

Signals: data, infrastructure, smart cities

Emotion Detection and Ad Design

Enrique León Villeda is an emotion detector. He is also a Mexican computer specialist living in Spain, who’s developed software that reads your emotions in real time as you encounter specific products or images.

The algorithm he designed collects sensory data such as heart rate, which is transmitted to a mobile phone or computer via Bluetooth. Analysts can compare a shopper’s emotional reactions to different images in order to produce more positive reactions (i.e., more receptive) to messages and images designed for stores. The project was developed by Tecnalia, a European center for applied research and innovation.

Villeda’s previous work with affective computing included a vest that determined emotional responses to changes in light and temperature. Working in Ireland, he also analyzed political speeches to discover emotional reactions to phrases uttered by a candidate.

Source, story and images: Investigación y Desarrollo [in Spanish].

Signals: advertising, emotions, marketing

On the AAI Foresight Blog

> Notes from an environmental futurist: The journey from science fiction to futurism is a natural one for many of today’s foresight professionals, observes Dave Bengston. But additional reading in nonfiction—particularly the environmental warnings found in Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, E.F. Schumacher’s Small Is Beautiful, and other works—took him on a unique new path. Read “How to Become an Environmental Futurist in 50 Years.” Download Bengston’s AAI Foresight Report “A World on Fire” (co-written with Bob Olson).

> Why savings aren’t saving China: Many developing nations protect their citizens’ futures via safety nets such as social security systems. Traditionally lacking such protections, the Chinese have become such big savers that they are stifling economic growth. Tim Mack describes what the Chinese government is doing to alter consumers’ paths to the future. Read “China’s Savings Culture inTurmoil.”

News for the Foresight Community

> In the news, Huffington Post: Media futurist and filmmaker Jason Silva, host of the National Geographic channel’s Brain Games series, spoke with HuffPo correspondent Marianne Schnall on what technologies such as the smartphone have done to our brains—and our humanity. “The brain ... witnesses the world through limited information it gets through the senses and it fills in the blanks,” Silva says. “Our smartphone is literally a mind-expanding substance. It allows us to transcend our limitations and our perceptions and expand our world.” Read “Interview With Futurist Jason Silva, Host of Brain Games” (April 20, 2015). Watch the interview at AOL. Image: ThisIsJasonSilva.com

> In the news, CBS: Science correspondent Michael Casey asked technology futurist Gray Scott why he considers himself a techno-optimist. They discussed the prospects of such developments as artificially intelligent assistants in our homes and why we fear the things we make—which are actually reflections of ourselves. Scott is founder of Serious Wonder, a multifaceted technology-arts-philosophy media site. Read “Maybe artificial intelligence won't destroy us after all” by Michael Casey, CBS News (posted May 14, 2015).

> Free webinars: TechCast Global has launched a webinar series offering insights by expert foresight panels, led by Bill Halal and Owen Davies. The first session, on April 30, provided an introduction to forecasting methodologies. The May 7 webinar focused on cybersecurity, AI, and the predictions market. The next webinar is scheduled for June 18, featuring Millennium Project co-founder and director Jerome C. Glenn on The Age of Consciousness: Technology Is Driving the World Beyond Knowledge. Details: TechCast Global.

> Teach the Future: A fundraising campaign to bring free futures-education resources to classrooms is halfway to its goal, according to Peter Bishop, executive director of Teach the Future. The project is also recruiting teachers for the summer program. Learn more at Teach the Future’s new website. Donate at Start Some Good before 6:00 p.m. Pacific time May 24.

> The editor has landed: AAI Foresight consulting editor Cindy Wagner is sharpening her red pencil. On May 11, she joined the editorial staff of Scrap, the award-winning publication of the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI). She will continue to produce Foresight Signals twice a month. Check out Scrap.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner