Signals: GM Tobacco ... Hacking with the Fish ... and more

Vol. 1, No. 15 | June 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> GM Tobacco Could Boost Biorefineries

> Hackathon Seeks Sustainable Fishing Technologies

> Improving Productivity Requires Training Supervisors

> News for the Foresight Community 

GM Tobacco Could Boost Biorefineries

Tobacco and genetically modified organisms are often viewed as enemies of human and environmental health. Soon, they may take on more heroic roles, thanks to a plan to use engineered tobacco as “green factories.” 

Many countries, such as Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, have set ambitious environmental goals to decarbonize, which means finding substitutes for petroleum and the many industrial products on which they are based. Biorefineries to produce these alternative fuels and products require enzymes to break down biomass into sugars. But the enzymes are currently the most expensive part of the process.

To lower the costs, researchers at Bioforsk in Norway have their eye on tobacco, which has large leaves, is fast growing, and can be harvested several times a year. The researchers aim to insert genes into the tobacco to make the plants produce more enzymes, thus breaking down the cell walls of biomass more effectively.“

Many people are skeptical [of] GMOs, but in this case, we use tobacco plants with the help of biotechnology to produce valuable enzymes for industrial biorefinery,” says lead researcher Jihong Liu Clarke. I believe there are mainly benefits, because we produce cheap enzymes and use the tobacco plant in a health-friendly way.”

Source: Bioforsk, the Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research. Photo: Erling Fløistad

Signals: biorefineries, energy, GMOs, industrial products, tobacco

Hackathon Seeks Sustainable Fishing Technologies

The U.S. State Department is sponsoring a “Fishackathon” to encourage innovative approaches to sustainable fishing. Last year’s inaugural event united 150 volunteer technologists at five U.S. aquariums to build mobile phone apps for fishers in developing countries. This year’s event, June 7 and 8, invites coders, designers, and enthusiasts around the world to #codeforfish.

The efforts will focus on five key problem areas for sustainable fishing: tracking and monitoring fish catches, reporting illegal fishers, registering boats and licensing fishers, identifying fish species and educating others about their market value, and mapping fish stocks to better inform policy makers.

Examples of specific challenges presented to the Fishackathon participants:

• Track aquaculture feed ingredients from the original source to the harvested product.
• A tool to provide sourcing information and access to local, sustainable seafood.
• An app to trace and determine a catch's origin within the Indian Ocean.

“The ‘hacks’ might approach the issues in a number of ways, but all center on finding innovative tools to either gather and synthesize data from the ground up, or disseminate information from the top down,” says Thomas Debass, deputy special representative for global partnerships at the Office of Global Partnerships in the U.S. State Department.

Source: “Five ways technology can help sustainable fishing,” Thomas Debass, Devex #innov8aid, The Development Innovators Blog (May 28, 2015). Details: fishackathon.co

Signals: fishing, innovation, sustainability

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Call for papers! If you are working on a foresight analysis project, AAI Foresight would welcome the opportunity to publish your work in the Foresight Reports series. Please contact Cindy Wagner, consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com. 

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Improving Productivity Requires Training the Supervisors

Improving supervisors’ competence and reducing burdensome regulations are the keys to better productivity, according to a survey of small and medium-sized enterprises in Finland.

The costs of labor, particularly those associated with social security, were named the biggest obstacle to productivity, notes the study published by Lappeenranta University of Technology. 

The new survey, a follow-up to 1997 research, revealed key changes in the sources of challenges over the past two decades. Previously, small and medium-sized businesses struggled with lack of resources, but now point to external factors such as legislation and their employees’ trade union activities.

Significantly, the companies surveyed also noted a lack of competence among supervisors as an obstacle for improving productivity. The researchers observe that, as productivity enables enterprises to thin out their workforces, the skills of supervisors take on more importance.

“Companies must see to facilitating the further education of their supervisors,” says senior researcher Sanna Pekkola. “Supervisors must also personally ensure that they have the required competence and maintain it. This requires a willing and active perspective with regard to further education and up-keeping one’s knowledge.” 

Source: Lappeenranta University of Technology.

Signals: business, labor, management, productivity, training

News for the Foresight Community

• In the News, CBS-San Francisco: Driverless cars are arriving ahead of schedule, and “the transformative impact is going to be vastly greater than we realize,” says Paul Saffo. While such vehicles may be safer for their occupants, they’ll also be massive data-collection machines—as susceptible to hacking as any other device, Saffo notes. Read more: “Why Driverless Cars Both Excite and Terrify Automotive Futurists“ (posted online May 20, 2015)
• In the News, Fast Company: Robots and algorithms will replace jobs ranging from military troops to stock traders, says Graeme Codrington (TomorrowToday Global). But in 2025, humans will still be in hot demand for tasks requiring higher-level thinking and judgment, but they’ll be doing so “on demand” as freelancers or contractors. Joe Tankersley (Unique Visions) suggests a few new careers: “tribers” who can build ad hoc teams, urban artisan farmers and advisers, and end-of-life planners. Read more: “The Top Jobs in 10 Years Might Not Be What You Expect“ by Michael Grothaus, Fast Company (posted online May 18, 2015)
  
• New book: The Future of Business edited by Rohit Talwar examines trends that will be affecting businesses over the next 10 to 20 years. More than 50 futurists contributed to the volume, including Maree Conway (“Foresight Infused Strategy”), Gray Scott (“Automation, Digitization, and Simulation”), and Dan Bubley (“Future of the Phone Call”). The book comes out June 11 and is available for preorder (discount coupon code rt1) at Fast Future Publishing.
• New book: Lone Wolf Terrorism Prospects and Potential Strategies to Address the Threat, written by Ted Gordon, Yair Sharan, and Elizabeth Florescu, is based on a Real Time Delphi study conducted by The Millennium Project. The study explores the phenomenon of lone wolf attacks, including more than 100 case studies, as well as weapons that might be used in the future, emerging detection technologies, and defense strategies. Details: LoneWolfThreat.com
• In Memoriam: Michael Michaelis (1919-2015). Former World Future Society board member Michael Michaelis died peacefully on May 19, less than a month before his 96th birthday. He lived in Chevy Chase, Maryland. After serving on the Advisory Council that led to the formation of the World Future Society, Michaelis was invited to become a founding board member in recognition of his vital connections with a vast array of thinkers and leaders in government, business, and academia. He also contributed two inspiring articles to The Futurist magazine during the organization’s formative years: “Building the World We Want” (June 1968) and “The Management of Change” (February 1971). A memorial is planned for fall 2015. Details: Washington Post, Legacy.com.
  

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

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Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

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© 2015 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Signals: Minor Infections, Major Problems... Waterless Recycling... Autonomous Autos... and more

Vol. 1, No. 7 | February 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight 

Inside Foresight SIGNALS

> Minor or Hidden Infections May Accelerate Mortality

> Dry Innovation for Plastics Recycling

> Liability and the Self-Driving Car: Report from Timothy Mack

> Scholarly Researchers Embrace Skepticism

> Futurists and Foresight in the News

Minor or Hidden Infections May Accelerate Mortality

If you escaped that horrific flu or other infection that’s been going around in your neighborhood, school, or workplace, you may count yourself lucky. Maybe you only got a mild infection, or felt well and kept on working just as effectively as ever. The bad news is that such hidden or mild, untreated infections could be shortening your life.

In studies of migratory birds with mild malaria infections, researchers at Sweden’s Lund University discovered that the cumulative effects of chronic infections shortened the birds’ telomeres—the caps on chromosomes that protect DNA—accelerating the aging process.

“The small, non-measureable effects of the chronic disease appear to underlie the accelerated shortening of the telomeres. When the telomeres get too short, this has a fatal effect and causes premature death,” said Lund researcher Dennis Hasselquist of the Department of Biology, a member of the research team. “If this is a general mechanism for any type of mild, chronic infection, which is quite possible, it will mean our study is of major interest to understand the impact that mild illnesses can have on other organisms, including humans.”

Reference: M. Asghar, D. Hasselquist, B. Hansson, P. Zehtindjiev, H. Westerdahl, S. Bensch, “Hidden costs of infection: Chronic malaria accelerates telomere degradation and senescence in wild birds,” Science (January 23, 2015), Vol. 347, No. 6220, pp. 436-4381. DOI: 10.1126/science.1261121 

Signals: aging, health, longevity, telomeres

Dry Innovation for Plastics Recycling

Water-intensive processes for recycling plastic waste could one day be replaced with new techniques that don’t require liquids. A dry recycling process developed by Ak Inovex of Mexico also promises to reduce energy consumption, use less space, and cut costs.

Using customizable machinery, the process can work with any type of plastic material, such as Styrofoam and polystyrene, to produce small plastic beads or pellets. Rather than dehydrating the original materials at high heat and then cooling them with water, Ak Inovex uses a patent-pending process of cooling through contact with special walls.

The company now plans to add biodetergents to the cleaning process for the recycled plastic products, thus keeping water use and costs at the lowest possible levels. Ak Inovex was a participant in Cleantech Challenge Mexico, a contest to promote the development of green companies. (See also “Power Pedaling with Bamboo Bike,” Foresight SIGNALS, Vol. 1, no. 6.)

Source: Investigación y Desarrollo [in Spanish].

Signals: green technology, innovation, Mexico, plastics, recycling, water

Liability and the Self-Driving Car: Report from Timothy Mack

The auto industry is clearly convinced that the question of autonomous vehicles is “not if, but when.” But the potential impacts on the industry, such as liability issues, are less clear.

Motor Trend analyst Frank Markus notes a number of relatively clear benefits of a working national autonomous-vehicle system, such as reduced accidents, increased mobility for nondrivers, reduced fuel consumption, and more intelligent driving patterns. 

But one of the most interesting questions regards autonomous and driver-controlled vehicles sharing the same roadways: If there are far fewer accidents, there will still be accidents, but probably fewer insurers to cover them. Who is responsible when accidents happen? Who pays? Rather than owners of autonomous vehicles taking out insurance (and paying premiums), would it fall on manufacturers to indemnify their products?

One possibility is public/private special compensation funds to underwrite unintended consequences. Owners of older, non-autonomous cars might be required to financially subsidize the rollout of presumably safer autonomous vehicles and road systems. Of course, manufacturers’ liability remains a toss-up in any court of law.

Timothy Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was adapted from the Foresight SIGNALS Blog. Image credit: Sam Churchill, via Flickr (Creative Commons license).

Signals: AI, autonomous vehicles, insurance, law, transportation

Scholarly Researchers Embrace Skepticism

A journal devoted to exploring the philosophical concept of skepticism has now been included in Scopus, a database of peer-reviewed literature that covers nearly 22,000 titles by 5,000 publishers worldwide. Scopus offers researchers wide access to tools to facilitate tracking, analysis, and visualization of research.

Brill’s International Journal for the Study of Skepticism, edited by Diego E. Machuca (CONICET, Argentina) and Duncan H. Pritchard (University of Edinburgh), publishes articles and organizes symposiums on all aspects of skeptical thought and current problems, including debates on epistemology, metaethics, and the philosophy of religion, among many other topics.

“The journal is fully committed to the highest standards of clarity and rigor, and serves as a forum for debate and exchange of ideas among leading international philosophers and scholars,” according to its mission statement.

Brill is an international academic publisher based in Lieden, the Netherlands, covering Middle East and Islamic Studies, Asian Studies, Classical Studies, History, Biblical and Religious Studies, Language and Linguistics, Biology, International Law, and more.

Details: Brill press release. Follow @Scopus on Twitter.

Signals: academic publishing, philosophy, research, skepticism

Futurists and Foresight in the News

Global Strategic Foresight Community: The World Economic Forum has established a new future-oriented interest group comprising leaders and stakeholders in government, industry, and the foresight profession. Among the participants are The Art of the Long View author Peter Schwartz of Salesforce.com, The Millennium Project founder Jerome C. Glenn, NATO strategic analyst Stephanie Babst, and Julius Gatune of the African Centre for Economic Transformation. The GSFC will “provide a peer network to compare and contrast insights as well as to positively shape future-related industry, regional and global agendas.” Details 

Survey on New Approaches in Foresight: Futurists around the world often develop new methodologies, which may affect outcomes in their foresight work. To better understand these new approaches and their impacts on science, technology, and innovation policy around the world, particularly Southeast Asia, The Future Impacts Consulting firm invites Foresight SIGNALS readers to participate in a brief survey (deadline February 6). Details: Contact Cornelia Daheim, daheim@future-impacts.de 

Technolife 2035: The English-language version of Teknoelämää 2035 by Finnish futurists Elina and Kari Hiltunen is now in progress and should be available soon. Elina’s previous book, Foresight and Innovation: How Companies are Coping with the Future, available in both Finnish and English, offers unique foresight tools that she has developed, such as the TrendWiki, Futures Windows, Strategic Serendipity, and the Futuropoly board game. Details 

Earth Policy Institute to Close: Leading environmental policy expert Lester R. Brown has announced his plans to retire from the think tank he founded in 2001. EPI will close by July this year, and the English-language versions of its principal publications will be housed at Rutgers University, Brown’s alma mater, in the new Lester R. Brown Reading Room. Brown’s career, spanning more than half a century, was devoted to measuring the planet’s resources and assessing its well-being, and issuing urgent warnings on such problems as climate change, overpopulation, and unsustainable consumption of resources. Details 

Frances Segraves, Former Futurist Staff Editor: We sadly report the passing of our friend and former colleague, pioneering newspaper journalist Frances Segraves, on January 14. She was 87. Frances was a staff editor for The Futurist magazine and the World Future Society Bulletin, retiring at the end of 1998. Before joining WFS to work with her longtime friends Ed and Sally Cornish, Frances was one of the first female reporters in the 1950s to cover hard news stories, working for The Frederick News, The Baltimore Sun, Bethlehem Globe-Times, and The Washington Star. She was also an activist in the anti-war and civil rights movements in the 1960s and 1970s. Details 

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

http://www.aaiforesight.com/blog

Feel free to share Foresight SIGNALS with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

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Foresight SIGNALS is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Innovations in Higher Education: The Grinnell Story

Fundraising like a seasoned politician, President Raynard Kington of Grinnell College recently delivered a report on the state of the college to local alumni in Washington, D.C.— a savvy constituency he jovially called “my people.”

Unlike many higher education institutions, Grinnell is in an enviable position for a lot of reasons, Kington remarked. The college boasts consistently high rankings not just on academics and quality of campus life, but also on a range of increasingly significant measures. For instance, this small, liberal arts college in central Iowa is ranked number two in both economic diversity and graduation rates.

“At Grinnell, low-income students graduate at the same rate as high-income students,” Kington reported.” We’re determined to eliminate differences.”

Innovation at Grinnell toward increasing this economic diversity includes work by the Posse Foundation, a program that has successfully expanded the size of the pool of students with economic needs.

But a challenge to this work is to simultaneously attract “full-ride” students—i.e., those from families with sufficient wealth to pay the current tuition of $50,000 a year. (Kington noted that expenditures per student are $66,000, so even the full-ride students get a $16,000 scholarship.)

To ensure all students’ success, the college added a new measure on its survey of incoming enrollees: Grit.

This understanding of students’ intrinsic drive to achieve, or of when short-term failures may thwart long-term success, will enable the school to do a better job of predicting who will need help. “We a want 100% graduation rate,” Kington said.

This year, Grinnell’s focus on increasing diversity has turned to working with students with disabilities, Kington said. More such students are attending Grinnell than ever, but the services necessary for them to succeed are costly.

“We want to make sure that all students have every support necessary to succeed,” he said.

Plans for innovation in facilities include rethinking the century-old architecture of the buildings housing the principal teaching spaces for the arts and social sciences. Kington likened the “Alumni Recitation Hall”—comprising long corridors and boxlike classrooms—to a World War II hospital.

“Teaching takes place organically, with spontaneous interactions,” he noted. “We need to make rooms more flexible.”

Student life on campus is another area ripe for innovation at Grinnell, including handling sexual assaults and improving mental health care. Addressing a growing nationwide concern for campus safety, students and faculty came up with a lot of solutions, such as night-time lighting in the dorms that could be dimmed instead of having to be turned all the way off.

Another simple solution being replicated on other campuses is a two-part information card that can be torn apart: One half gives instructions for teachers on what to do and say when a student comes to them to report an assault, and the other half provides help and resources for the student.

Because Grinnell College is in a rural community (about midway between Des Moines and Iowa City), neither the school nor the town is able to attract sufficient health-care providers, and the problem is particularly acute for providing mental-health services for students, said Kington. Right now, nurses on call at the Student Health and Counseling Services (SHACS) must do triage, but in the future, the school hopes to partner with the local hospital, rather than “continue pretending to be a health-care provider.”

The final area of innovation that Grinnell College is pursuing is its own brand marketing. One important measure of value that has been disappointing is in getting the full-pay applicants to decide to attend, when so much attention has been paid to increasing the pool of lower-income students.

“We need to rethink how we talk about ourselves. We weren’t doing a great job of promoting the brand,” Kington observed. At the same time, “We don’t want to send the wrong message to high-need students.”

From this alumna’s point of view, President Kington’s most promising innovation has been his vision: “We focus on sixteen hundred students at a time. If we get it right for them, they’ll affect the lives of millions.”

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Cynthia G. Wagner is a graduate of Grinnell College, where she majored in English (and minored in “Intro To…”). The Foresight SIGNALS blog is an occasional supplement to the AAI Foresight SIGNALS newsletter.