Foresight SIGNALS: marketing

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Sunday, May 17, 2015

Signals: Smart Cities... Emotion Detection... and more

Vol. 1, No. 14 | May 19, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Data Sharing for Smarter Cities

> Emotion Detection and Ad Design

> On the AAI Foresight Blog: Bengston, Mack

> News for the Foresight Community

Data Sharing for Smarter Cities

An organic waste recycling depot on one side of town is close to overflowing. A biogas plant on the other side of town is running on empty and needs biomass right away. Today, this is a scenario of two problems. Tomorrow, a Smart Urban Services project would turn both problems into solutions.

A pilot project in Reutlingen, Germany, demonstrates how sensors and an integrated platform can connect these and other urban infrastructure facilities, such as traffic management. The data would not just be available to a central authority, but would be shared by local communities, companies, and residents, according to Inka Woyke, head of the Service Management team at Fraunhofer IAO.

This connectivity doesn’t just benefit individual services, Woyke says. Smart Urban Services will offer municipalities a competitive advantage for attracting businesses and employees by creating more efficient—and livable—cities.

Partnering with Fraunhofer IAO in the Smart Urban Services consortium are the Institute for Human Factors and Technology Management IAT at the University of Stuttgart, Input Consulting GmbH, and the cities of Chemnitz and Reutlingen.

Source: Fraunhofer IAO. More information: Smart Urban Services. Image: Tim RT Photography, via Flickr (Creative Commons).

Signals: data, infrastructure, smart cities

Emotion Detection and Ad Design

Enrique León Villeda is an emotion detector. He is also a Mexican computer specialist living in Spain, who’s developed software that reads your emotions in real time as you encounter specific products or images.

The algorithm he designed collects sensory data such as heart rate, which is transmitted to a mobile phone or computer via Bluetooth. Analysts can compare a shopper’s emotional reactions to different images in order to produce more positive reactions (i.e., more receptive) to messages and images designed for stores. The project was developed by Tecnalia, a European center for applied research and innovation.

Villeda’s previous work with affective computing included a vest that determined emotional responses to changes in light and temperature. Working in Ireland, he also analyzed political speeches to discover emotional reactions to phrases uttered by a candidate.

Source, story and images: Investigación y Desarrollo [in Spanish].

Signals: advertising, emotions, marketing

Call for papers! If you are working on a foresight analysis project, AAI Foresight would welcome the opportunity to publish your work in the Foresight Reports series. Please contact Cindy Wagner, consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com.

On the AAI Foresight Blog

> Notes from an environmental futurist: The journey from science fiction to futurism is a natural one for many of today’s foresight professionals, observes Dave Bengston. But additional reading in nonfiction—particularly the environmental warnings found in Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, E.F. Schumacher’s Small Is Beautiful, and other works—took him on a unique new path. Read “How to Become an Environmental Futurist in 50 Years.” Download Bengston’s AAI Foresight Report “A World on Fire” (co-written with Bob Olson).

> Why savings aren’t saving China: Many developing nations protect their citizens’ futures via safety nets such as social security systems. Traditionally lacking such protections, the Chinese have become such big savers that they are stifling economic growth. Tim Mack describes what the Chinese government is doing to alter consumers’ paths to the future. Read “China’s Savings Culture inTurmoil.”

News for the Foresight Community

> In the news, Huffington Post: Media futurist and filmmaker Jason Silva, host of the National Geographic channel’s Brain Games series, spoke with HuffPo correspondent Marianne Schnall on what technologies such as the smartphone have done to our brains—and our humanity. “The brain ... witnesses the world through limited information it gets through the senses and it fills in the blanks,” Silva says. “Our smartphone is literally a mind-expanding substance. It allows us to transcend our limitations and our perceptions and expand our world.” Read “Interview With Futurist Jason Silva, Host of Brain Games” (April 20, 2015). Watch the interview at AOL. Image: ThisIsJasonSilva.com

> In the news, CBS: Science correspondent Michael Casey asked technology futurist Gray Scott why he considers himself a techno-optimist. They discussed the prospects of such developments as artificially intelligent assistants in our homes and why we fear the things we make—which are actually reflections of ourselves. Scott is founder of Serious Wonder, a multifaceted technology-arts-philosophy media site. Read “Maybe artificial intelligence won't destroy us after all” by Michael Casey, CBS News (posted May 14, 2015).

> Free webinars: TechCast Global has launched a webinar series offering insights by expert foresight panels, led by Bill Halal and Owen Davies. The first session, on April 30, provided an introduction to forecasting methodologies. The May 7 webinar focused on cybersecurity, AI, and the predictions market. The next webinar is scheduled for June 18, featuring Millennium Project co-founder and director Jerome C. Glenn on The Age of Consciousness: Technology Is Driving the World Beyond Knowledge. Details: TechCast Global.

> Teach the Future: A fundraising campaign to bring free futures-education resources to classrooms is halfway to its goal, according to Peter Bishop, executive director of Teach the Future. The project is also recruiting teachers for the summer program. Learn more at Teach the Future’s new website. Donate at Start Some Good before 6:00 p.m. Pacific time May 24.

> The editor has landed: AAI Foresight consulting editor Cindy Wagner is sharpening her red pencil. On May 11, she joined the editorial staff of Scrap, the award-winning publication of the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI). She will continue to produce Foresight Signals twice a month. Check out Scrap.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Signals: Living in (Smart) Glass Houses... and more

Vol. 1, No. 12 | April 16, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Living in a (Smart) Glass House

> Food Regulators Urged to Define “Natural”

> Marketing for a Better World: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> In Memoriam: Kenneth W. Harris

Living in a (Smart) Glass House

Colder winters and hotter summers are why living and working in glass-fronted buildings is not smart. These beautiful but energy-inefficient designs are costly for owners and waste tremendous amounts of energy.

Buildings account for a huge portion of overall energy consumption—some 40 percent in Germany, for instance. Fraunhofer Institute researchers in Dresden are now working with students and professors at Weissensee School of Art in Berlin to develop better materials for use in glass façades.

The team is constructing a demonstration model of thermally reactive fabric blinds based on a concept by design student Bára Finnsdottir. The design consists of a matrix of 72 flowerlike fabric components with shape-memory actuators integrated into them. As sunlight hits the façade, the pieces move noiselessly to shield the building from heat.

The researchers hope to have a commercially available system by mid-2017. Looking beyond smarter façades, they envision even better energy capabilities for the concept.

“It might be possible to store solar thermal energy and then release it when needed to heat the interior, for instance at night,” says André Bucht, department head at Fraunhofer IWU. “Another idea is to coat the flower fabric components with malleable, organic solar cells in order to generate electricity that can be used within the building.”

Source: Fraunhofer IWU. Image: © Bára Finnsdóttir, Weissensee School of Art Berlin.

Signals: architecture, design, energy

Food Regulators Urged to Define “Natural”

Food producers, consumers, and regulators all want to know what’s natural, and no one seems to agree. “Artificial” ingredients are a little easier to understand, such as added colors and flavors, but these additives cast suspicions on many food products that may actually be harmless.

With more genetically modified organisms creeping into the food supply, marketers have been put on the defensive to reassure consumers and regulators. Consumers have resorted to lawsuits to demand complete and accurate information on the stuff they stuff into their mouths.

“Though natural food lawsuits to date have disappointed, they encourage marketers to drop the claim of being natural or reformulate their products to avoid future lawsuits,” writes Ross D. Petty of Babson College in the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing. “Perhaps this will persuade the [Food and Drug Administration] or [Federal Trade Commission] to consider creating, finally, a definition for the meaning of natural.”

Source: American Marketing Association

Reference: Ross D. Petty, “‘Natural’ Claims in Food Advertising: Policy Implications of Filling the Regulatory Void with Consumer Class Action Lawsuits,” Journal of Public Policy & Marketing (In Press). DOI:10.1509/jppm.14.147

Signals: consumers, food, GMO, marketing, regulation

Marketing for a Better World: Report from Timothy C. Mack

Psychology, behavioral economics, and even neuroscience are coming together with digital technology to change the mechanics of human decision making. The goal is to use feedback on consumers’ emotional reactions and to apply conditioning techniques (rewards) to promote the habits of pleasurable actions. Behavior engineering is flowering in such developments as Nir Eyal’s Habit Hook, driven by rapid advances in neuroscience and the emergence of continuous shopping.

But this approach isn’t just about reinforcing habitual consumption; it could also build habits that are actually good for you, such as encouraging more physical activity, getting more rest each night, or being more frugal. Nonprofit organizations could also use such benign behavior building techniques, benefiting from greater sharing of personal information and higher, more reactive transmissions speeds worldwide. Read more.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report is adapted from the Foresight Signals blog. Download his Foresight Report “The Future of Retail Marketing” (Spring 2015).

Signals: addiction, AI, marketing, neuroscience, psychology

In Memoriam: Kenneth W. Harris

The foresight community was saddened to learn of the death earlier this year of Ken Harris, who served the World Future Society and its National Capital chapter for many years. He was also a field editor on transportation for TechCast Global and a member of the Association for Professional Futurists and the Lifeboat Foundation, in addition to his work as a consultant for the Consilience Group.

Ken was an avid sports and fitness fan, enjoying golf, biking, weight training, and numerous other activities, about which he wrote eloquently for The Futurist.

“His interests and expertise ranged from transportation to the sports industry to health, and worked on fundraising and outreach programs,” said AAI Foresight managing consultant Tim Mack. “He was diligent, reliable and indefatigable in his support of the interests of the World Future Society, and he will be greatly missed.”

Ken devoted more than 30 years to federal civil service, working principally at the Federal Aviation Administration. His work in helping the FAA navigate the future of aviation and the economy segued to his post-federal consulting and volunteer work, including leading book discussion groups.

“Ken Harris was among the most dedicated World Future Society volunteers relentlessly advocating for and actively supporting the activities of the futures community,” said former board chair Ken Hunter. “He worked tirelessly to support the WFS chapters and people around the world developing local groups. He also served on many special project teams always contributing time, talent and professionalism to enterprise. It was a pleasure serving with Ken over the decades.”

Ken lived in Bethesda, Maryland, with his wife, Carolyn. At the time of this writing, a date for memorial services had not been set. Condolences may be posted in the comments here or emailed to AAI Foresight and will be forwarded to Carolyn Harris.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Sunday, April 12, 2015

Marketing for a Better World

By Timothy C. Mack

While I have written in the past about the revolution that the world of retail is undergoing, one interesting thing about the future is that it keeps unfolding. Like any lively crossroads of converging technologies, the principles of retail choice (or should I say persuasion) brings psychology, behavioral economics, and even neuroscience together with digital technology to change the mechanics of human decision making.

Wiring the face muscles of subjects viewing Internet websites (looking for irritation from frowning or delight from smiling) is rather old hat, but what is new is using this feedback data to build habitual behavior out of the pleasure data, based on the half-century-old research of B.F. Skinner on positive conditioning. The goal is to transform the subject’s initial actions into to compelling urges to repeat pleasurable actions.

Nir Eyal is the developer of an approach called the Habit Hook, a progressive learning loop that begins with an action trigger, leading to a rewarding experience and ending with some sort of investment. The result is an increased likelihood that the subject will undertake the whole sequence again, thus moving smoothly from actions into urges.

What is most provocative about this new integration of the soft and hard sciences

(which increasingly involves smartphones and a wider range of apps than simple online retail) is that it could build habits that are actually good for you, such as increased participation in corporate wellness programs by encouraging not just more activity but more rest each night.

This arena is now being crowded not just by decision psychologists, but also by game theorists and predictive modelers. While better services and more suitable offers for consumers are hyped, what we are seeing is a brave new world for advertising. Firms like Rocket Fuel, are using AI programming to design ideal website ads that make upwards of $400 million annually. This is a long way from putting the “next best thing” into that Web stream to see if it went viral or faded away, with few clues of what the outcome would be.

Behavior engineering is flowering, driven by rapid advances in neuroscience and the emergence of continuous shopping. The constantly evolving Web is no longer an impediment to choice but a process of galvanization and inside information rewards (newest and best first); consumer participants will soon be able to continuously curate their commercial experiences, thereby educating both themselves and marketers.

Note: This is not a lament about our loss of personal freedom or psychic privacy (although that may be increasingly involved). It is an observation that positive behaviors such as healthier activity or increased frugality are also the outcomes of habit building. Moreover, nonprofit organizations could also use such benign behavior building techniques, benefiting from greater sharing of personal information and higher, more reactive transmissions speeds worldwide.

If activating the brain’s reward circuitry is “addiction,” whether or not substance abuse is involved, as the American Society of Addiction Medicine has determined, these techniques may cause concerns. But they also may suggest solutions to some of society’s most concerning health and public safety challenges.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. Image: Steve Jurvetson, Flickr.

Download “The Future of Retail Marketing” by Timothy C. Mack, Foresight Report, AAI Foresight Inc., Spring 2015 (PDF).

Sources: “Technology and Persuasion” by Nanette Byrnes and “Compulsive Behavior Sells” by Ted Greenwald in MIT Technology Review Business Report: Paths of Persuasion, March 23, 2015.

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Signals: Energy for Mars... Deforestation and Species Loss... Customers Too Engaged? and more

Vol. 1, No. 10 | March 18, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Harvesting Energy on Mars

> Deforestation and Species Loss in the Amazon

> Can Customers Be Too Engaged?

> Jumping Technology Categories: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> News for the Foresight Community

Harvesting Energy on Mars

A major technological hurdle to colonizing Mars is providing a sustainable source of energy for travelers and inhabitants. Researchers at Northumbria University are developing an engine that can harvest energy from carbon dioxide, which is apparently abundant on Mars in the form of dry ice. The breakthrough also means that a ticket to Mars need not be one way, according to scientists.

The technique, described in the journal Nature Communications, exploits a phenomenon known as the Leidenfrost effect, which produces energy when a liquid comes in contact with a surface much hotter than the liquid’s boiling point. With solid carbon dioxide (dry ice), the Leidenfrost effect creates a vapor, which the Northumbria team believes can be captured to power an engine with significantly less friction.

“One thing is certain, our future on other planets depends on our ability to adapt our knowledge to the constraints imposed by strange worlds, and to devise creative ways to exploit natural resources that do not naturally occur here on Earth,” said co-author Rodrigo Ledesma-Aguilar in a press statement.

Source: Northumbria University

Reference: Gary G. Wells, Rodrigo Ledesma-Aguilar, Glen McHale, and Khellil Sefiane, “A sublimation heat engine,” Nature Communications 6, Article number: 6390, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7390

Signals: energy harvesting, Mars

Deforestation and Species Loss in the Amazon

A third of the Amazon is approaching a tipping point in deforestation that will accelerate species loss. By 2030, these endangered areas could lose 31 percent to 44 percent of species, predicts a team of Cambridge University researchers.

Historically, just one or two species is lost for every 10 percent loss of forest coverage; however, when an area dips below a threshold of 43 percent of forest coverage, species loss accelerates to two to eight species per 10 percent forest loss.

Pressure on land use comes largely from agriculture, as farmers work to meet the demands of growing (and increasingly affluent) human populations. In Brazil, individual landowners are required to retain 80% forest cover, but this is rarely achieved, according to the researchers. A more successful approach might be to consider entire landscapes rather than individual farms, and to promote practices that stop deforestation above the threshold.

The research supports a new approach to environmental legislation in Brazil and the tropics, said study leader Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero in a press statement. “We need to move from thinking in terms of compliance at a farm scale to compliance at a landscape scale if we are to save as many species as we can from extinction,” he concluded.

Source: University of Cambridge. Image: Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero

Reference: Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero, Toby A. Gardner, Isabel Rosa, Silvio Frosini de Barros Ferraz, and William J. Sutherland, “Thresholds of species loss in Amazonian deforestation frontier landscapes,” Conservation Biology, 2015 (Vol. 29, issue 1). DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12446

Signals: agriculture, Amazon, biodiversity, deforestation, species loss

Can Customers Be Too Engaged?

Increasing audience engagement has long been a mantra in brand promotion, but a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research suggests that some audience members may be too engaged for a brand’s good.

Using the popular American reality TV series America’s Next Top Model as a case study, researchers Marie-Agnès Parmentier (HEC Montréal) and Eileen Fischer (York University) examined how social media enabled and encouraged fans to interact with the show and with other fans. Though the show encouraged this engagement, its consequences were often out of the producers’ control.

Thanks to their engagement, many fans felt encouraged to persistently and passionately offer their advice regarding things they didn’t like about the show (change of format, new judges, etc.). The unintended consequence was to contribute to a negative image of the show among other fans. The researchers conclude that the most enthusiastic fans may have thus inadvertently contributed to the show’s declining popularity.

The lesson for brands: Beware of what you wish for. “Ironically, fans may contribute to the destabilization of a brand even as they are trying to help prevent this,” write Parmentier and Fischer. “While fans can be conducive to brand value creation or co-creation, they can equally contribute to value co-destruction.”

Reference: Marie-Agnès Parmentier and Eileen Fischer, “Things Fall Apart: The Dynamics of Brand Audience Dissipation,” Journal of Consumer Research, February 2015 (Vol. 41, No. 5). DOI: 10.1086/678907

Signals: audience engagement, brands, marketing, social media

Jumping Technology Categories: Report from Timothy C. Mack

In Silicon Valley, the blessing (or curse) of vast disposable resources appears to be leading a number of companies out of the arena of computer software and hardware development into such terra incognita as Google’s self-driving, electric-powered car.

Google already has five years of R&D invested in this self-driving car project. However, how well would Google find its way in an entirely new marketplace with technology of a distinctly new level? As Mashable writer Lance Ulanoff notes, there are as many as 6,000 parts in an automobile, and there is a much higher standard for drivability and driver safety than is required for software and hardware.

The price points involved in such a quantum shift are quite intimidating, considering both the overhead investment per unit and the volume of units that would need to be sold to make the numbers work.

As I have observed elsewhere, the liability issues for self-driving cars are likely to take years and maybe even decades to sort out. Unintended consequences arise from even small shifts in direction. The outcomes of such an adventure are difficult to estimate, but they are likely to be substantial and messy. Read more

Timothy C. Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was excerpted from the Foresight Signals Blog. Image: Google Blog

News for the Foresight Community

• Book: The Great Transition. Earth Policy Institute President Lester Brown’s latest book, The Great Transition: Shifting From Fossil Fuels to Solar and Wind Energy
(W.W. Norton, 2015), is now available for pre-order. Co-authored with EPI researchers Janet Larsen, J. Matthew Roney, and Emily E. Adams, The Great Transition documents the global movement toward the energy choices that are leading to a new economy. As the costs of solar and wind power fall, their spread will accelerate. Read Chapter 1, Changing Direction. Order the book.

• Conference: Tackling Wicked Problems. The World Conference of Futures Research 2015, to be held June 11-12, 2015, in Turku, Finland, will explore how the study of the future can be used to address today’s most perplexing problems. Among the featured speakers at “Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems” will be Thomas Lombardo of the Center for Future Consciousness; Kerstin Cuhls, scientific manager at Fraunhofer ISI; and Sirkka Heinonen of the Finland Futures Research Centre at the University of Turku. Details.

• Call for Papers: Innovation and Degrowth. A special issue of Prometheus: Critical Studies in Innovation will explore the concept of sustainable degrowth as an alternative approach to human progress that decouples innovation and economic growth. Guest editors for the issue are Steffen Roth, ESC Rennes School of Business, France; Miguel Pérez-Valls, University of Almeria, Spain; and Jari Kaivo-oja, University of Turku, Finland. Submission details.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Designer: Lisa Mathias

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net