Hogs and the Self-Driving Car, Another Futurist at Ford, Moves in the Field, and more

Vol. 3, No. 8 | June 2017 | AAI Foresight

How Autonomous Vehicles Could Affect Hog Farming

From the department of unexpected consequences.... The rise of self-driving cars could alter the future of hog production, Canadian futurist Nikolas Badminton [http://nikolasbadminton.com/] recently told an audience of swine farmers. Reason: Autonomous vehicles will be safer, resulting in fewer deaths and therefore fewer human organs available for donation. Enter the medical pig.

Gene-editing technologies under development could create pigs with organs suitable for use in humans, Badminton said. With the trend toward vegetarianism already affecting demand for pork, hog farmers may instead raise the animals for medical consumption.

Read “Self-driving cars could affect pig production: futurist” [http://www.producer.com/2017/05/self-driving-cars-could-affect-pig-production-futurist/] by Mary Baxter, The Western Producer (May 4, 2017). Note: Badminton has opened a new speakers bureau, Futurist Speaker Agency. [https://futuristspeakersagency.com/]

Ford Hires (Another) Futurist

The Ford Motor Co. praises its new CEO, Jim Hackett, [https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/people/james-hackett.html] as a “visionary” who will help the company move forward in developing autonomous vehicles. Hackett joined Ford in 2016 to lead its mobility services division.

Previously, Ford’s futures-orientation had manifested itself in sustainability efforts such as lightweighting the popular F-150 trucks with aluminum instead of steel. But the vehicles have become so popular that, as more are manufactured, more resources are consumed (including both virgin and recycled materials), points out sustainability scholar Carl A. Zimring in a new book, Aluminum Upcycled.

“The most sustainable automobile design of the twenty-first century is not an automobile at all, but a system to distribute transportation services,” Zimring writes. “Automobile-sharing programs such as Zipcar and IGO, and the bicycle-sharing programs of several European and North American cities distribute the services of driving to a wide clientele without the damage of mass production and disposal.”

Comment: If this is what Hackett’s vision is for Ford, and if he can monetize that vision into services Ford can provide, he may truly earn the name of futurist. But Hackett isn’t the first futurist at Ford. It’s actually in Sheryl Connelly’s [https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/people/sheryl-connelly.html] job description. Connelly is the company’s manager for global consumer trends and futuring and has given numerous presentations on futurism in her industry. (Disclosure: This writer owns a few shares of Ford stock and has owned only Ford vehicles since the early 1980s.) —CGW

Read Aluminum Upcycled: Sustainable Design in Historical Perspective by Carl A. Zimring of the Platt Institute (Johns Hopkins University Press [www.press.jhu.edu], 2017).

Credit, Hackett and Connelly photos: Ford Motor Co.

Opportunity: Startups for Smart Cities

The Singularity University has issued a call for startup companies and entrepreneurs “that apply exponential technologies to help shape better cities,” starting with Columbus, Ohio. “In this intensive 10-week program, you’ll receive high-velocity training, relevant mentoring from the best minds around the world, and help preparing to scale your company,” according to SU. “Finally, you’ll also receive up to $100,000 in seed funding, provided by NCT Ventures.” The accelerator will be from September 12 to November 17 in Columbus. The deadline to apply is July 17. Learn more at Singularity University. [https://su.org/smart-city-accelerator/startups/]

Recent Publications

“The Future of Britain 2022: A Pre-Election Survey on Electoral Priorities” by Rohit Talwar, Alexandra Whittington, and April Koury, Fast Future Publishing [http://fastfuturepublishing.com/main/] (June 5, 2017).

More than 79 percent of respondents to Fast Future’s survey stated that creating a more representative electoral system was a major priority for the future of Britain, with nearly 28 percent suggesting that decentralizing authority and decision making to the local level would help achieve this goal. “The scale of interest in electoral reform may come as the biggest surprise but is a clear reflection of the desire for more representative governance models,” the report states. And despite the Brexit victory a year ago, nearly 42 percent of the Britons responding to the survey said assuring Britain retains access to the European single market is a priority.

See also Joergen Oerstroem Moeller’s analysis of the recent elections: “Time for UK to practise humility: Tarnished May's unnecessary gamble,” [https://www.omfif.org/analysis/commentary/2017/june/time-for-uk-to-practise-humility/] OMFIF—Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (June 9, 2017). Moeller is senior research fellow, ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, and Singapore Management University, and a former state secretary at the Danish Foreign Ministry.

“The Internet of Things Connectivity Binge: What Are the Implications?” [http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/06/06/the-internet-of-things-connectivity-binge-what-are-the-implications/] by Lee Rainie and Janna Anderson, Pew Research Center, Internet & Technology (June 6, 2017).

Despite fears of widespread cyberattacks, “The Internet of Things (IoT) is in full flower,” Rainie and Anderson write. This report on Pew’s “nonscientific canvassing” of more than 1,200 IT professionals, futurists, and others found that 85 percent would choose more connectivity rather than less. But we will increasingly be unaware of that connectivity, commented Jamais Cascio, [http://www.openthefuture.com/jamais_bio.html]] distinguished fellow at the Institute for the Future. “Think of it as the ‘electricity’ effect,” he said. On the other hand, “the attacks will get much worse,” said writer Cory Doctorow, co-owner of Boing Boing.

“At present, the Internet of Things is more a series of missteps than a grand design, if for no other reason than many of the large players are competitors versus cooperators and accepted protocols are still not agreed upon,” commented Timothy C. Mack, managing principal at AAI Foresight. “As well, the ‘gold rush’ quality of such areas as ‘smart homes’ has led to shoddy design and poor construction of the physical and the digital aspects of this brave new world. As for the loss of critical safety and security through networks trying to interconnect and protect and the same time (with largely the same tools), we should expect many more disappointments in the IoT development saga.”

Moves in the Field

RAND opens Bay Area office: The RAND Corporation has opened on office in San Francisco “to foster collaboration with the region's leaders and researchers working to solve today’s complex problems—issues including technological change and innovation, social inequality, water resource management, and transportation.” Senior information scientist Nidhi Kalra [https://www.rand.org/about/people/k/kalra_nidhi.html] will lead the new office. Learn more at RAND. [https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/04/rand-opens-office-in-the-san-francisco-bay-area.html]

Sweeney joins humanitarian organization: Futurist John A. Sweeney has joined the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (Geneva, Switzerland) as global futures and foresight coordinator. Learn more at IFRC. [http://ifrc.org/innovation]

Honors and Milestones

XPRIZE names authors to Science Fiction Advisory Council: The XPRIZE will seek inspiration from more than 60 “visionary storytellers who will lend their expertise in honing our vision of the future.” Among those on the council are Margaret Atwood,[http://margaretatwood.ca/] Cory Doctorow, [http://craphound.com/bio/] Madeline Ashby, [http://madelineashby.com/] David Brin, [http://www.davidbrin.com/biography.html] Brenda Cooper, [http://www.brenda-cooper.com/about/] and Greg Bear. [http://www.gregbear.com/bio.php] Learn more at XPRIZE. [http://www.xprize.org/about/scifi]

Silicon Valley Honors Tech Investors: The Silicon Valley Forum has bestowed its annual Visionary Award on five technology investors: DFJ partner Steve Jurvetson; [http://dfj.com/people/steve-jurvetson] IBM nanotechnology pioneer Don Eigler; [https://www.research.ibm.com/theworldin2050/bios-Eigler.shtml] Megan Smith, [https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/administration/eop/ostp/about/leadershipstaff/smith] chief technology officer of the United States under the Obama administration; Neri Oxman [https://www.media.mit.edu/people/neri/overview/ ] of the MIT Media Lab; and Linda Rottenberg [http://endeavor.org/global-board/linda-rottenberg/] of Endeavor. Learn more at Silicon Valley Forum. [http://siliconvalleyforum.com/event/29130789977]

In Memoriam

Jacque Fresco: Venus Project founder Jacque Fresco died May 18 in Sebring, Florida, at the age of 101. Like Buckminster Fuller before him, Fresco was a big-picture thinker whose passion was solving the world’s greatest problems, including equitable resource distribution. The Venus Project, set about two hours south of Orlando, Florida, realized his vision, with partner Roxanne Meadows, of a cybernetically sophisticated city featuring elegant, spaceship-like buildings. Read the open letter by Roxanne Meadows

[https://www.thevenusproject.com/] and the New York Times obituary. [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/us/jacque-fresco-futurist-who-envisioned-a-society-without-money-dies-at-101.html?_r=0].

Richard Solomon: RAND Corporation senior fellow Richard H. Solomon died March 13 in Bethesda, Maryland. He was 79. Solomon was a China scholar and is credited with helping open U.S.-China relations and ending conflict in Cambodia. He also led the U.S. Institute of Peace for 19 years, where he helped promote nonviolent conflict resolution. Read the RAND press release [https://www.rand.org/news/press/2017/03/14.html] and the Washington Post obituary. [https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/richard-solomon-kissinger-aide-involved-in-ping-pong-diplomacy-with-china-dies-at-79/2017/03/14/a8866d74-ef03-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.859cfce33c5c]

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

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Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

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© 2017 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

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http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

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Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

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Designer: Lisa Mathias

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VR and AI Development

By Timothy C. Mack

The trouble with virtual reality (VR) is that science fiction and other popular media have so raised expectations that people are always disappointed, because they all think that fully functional VR is already here. But what VR is really good at is storytelling, simulator games, and training of all sorts.

This is to distinguished virtual from augmented reality (AR), which is also in development. However, nobody has unrealistic expectations about AR, which strongly challenges present assumptions that it will be very disruptive. There continues to be a dichotomy between physically visiting a place or event and virtually doing so. There are so many physical aspects to actual presence—smell, taste, touch—that only very limited opportunities to simulate them are now possible (such as haptic gloves). One of the most appealing aspects of real presence is serendipity: the unexpected event or outcome.

Deep human impulses are released in gaming. Many experienced players even provoke their opponents to play more emotionally and thus make mistakes. While fun can be transformational—physically, emotionally, and cognitively—there is seldom complete transfer of skills in gaming or simulations. A good example is a firefighter simulation in a burning building, which does not adequately prepare one for the heat, choking gases, and real danger. And so outcomes and success levels are different for each person.

VR simulations for training still may not prepare firefighters for the real thing. Credit:  Skeeze/Pixabay 

Clinical depression simulations have been developed to help social workers and therapists understand clients. While not always successful, these simulations do help build a community of learning between “us and them.” Different approaches to teaching work skills to a mixed group of students affect them in different ways and are successful on only a certain percentage of participants, even if the game or simulation has been well designed. It is all too easy to build bad games that work for no one, and there are lots of them around. The ideal game may be one that creates the opportunity for discussion and decision making among players during the game. And again, there is quite a wide range in cognitive/rational responses and understandings taken away from a single game by a diverse group of players.

One of the challenges in VR game design is determing what assumptions the designer can make about players' prior knowledge. Also, in the United States, there is less independent game playing; rather, gaming is usually on multiplayer online settings with a single screen for each player.

Online gaming (streaming) is becoming more of a spectator sport, but live spectator sports will endure—even broadcast spectator sports that offer no audience controls. Holographic technology is improving rapidly, however, moving toward completely immersive experiences. And this holographic view is unsually unique to each viewer, depending on where they are standing in the available viewing space, enabling multiple players/viewers to share different viewpoints and values.

Will new technologies allow for virtual visits to national parks and experiences of events that allow for greater levels of participation and observation detail? Interactive playing rather than participating in live games and events could lead to changes in attitude and even in thinking about a subject. Many games are actually on a continuum between gaming and reality.

Gaming in the workplace is growing, but it is not always digital. Games such as Escape Route (Locked Room Puzzles) now popular in employee development are often more exercises for observation, analysis, and team building. It consists of half a dozen people in a physically confined space, given clues for escape with the goal of developing a successful team approach to solve the problem. But one outcome can be a “trough of despair” where people stop responding to the game structure and innovative behavior declines. Because no one game works for everyone, it raises the questions of why people play any specific game at all. This requires understanding your community of players.

It is clear that games can communicate complex ideas to their players in ways that seem intuitive. Games can communicate meaning. New York University's Game Center and University of Southern California's Annenberg Innovation Lab are working in this arena. One important thing that games offer to their players is engagement. In order for this engagement to develop, the game must invite iteration—repetition builds engagement over time. But it is very difficult to anticipate how all players will respond to any specific game, and not everyone seeks empowerment. That lack of control can be the novel and intriguing experience. And role playing can provide all sorts of new experiences

At Google, researchers are working on natural language solutions, leading to new machine learning frameworks, including deep learning projects such as Tensorflow. The whole deep learning area is moving ahead quite quickly, as computing power advances. Besides Google, Facebook and Microsoft are committing large resources, and a number of smaller companies are also involved.

Machine-learning tools drive advances in robotic movement controls and energy management, which are two of the most difficult challenges at present. Virtual models developed to build robotic systems often were poorly conceived or even wrong—they did not work in practice. There was not enough real-world input into building those systems, and the outputs were often full of digital noise. For example, task-training data is often too scarce to inform task design.

Another real challenge is crafting strategies for interpreting emotional interaction—and reading opponents in game playing. This research is being led by Google Deep Mind (renamed after Deep Mind Technologies in UK was acquired by Google). Graphic processing units are often more effective than CPUs to communicate problem solving strategies, and the majority of present AI work relates to assisting humans rather than beating humans at games. This is not artificial but augmented intelligence.

Many are concerned about black box intelligence with full agency and independence—so some are designing and bulding attention-tracking tools allowing us to see what was incorporated in an AI decision. This will help us better understand the decision steps involved and replicate them—and help us understand mistakes, as well.

It is nearly impossible to look out 20 years in AI research because change is happening so fast. Even 10 years out is too far ahead to be accurate. But one thing that will happen is that the Internet of Things will continue to improve its understanding of users through enabled devices, as well as their desires and patterns of behavior. And deep-learning tools will inform research in areas such as biology, medicine, and energy development.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight.

Image credit: Skeeze/Pixabay

Megatrends ... Corporate Futurists Beware ... Moves in the Field ... and more

Vol. 2, No. 7 | May 2016 | AAIForesight

News for the Foresight Community

> Hot Topic: Megatrends and Future Research

> Futurism in the News: Forbes on Corporate Futurists

> Moves in the Field: Millennium Project, Future Today Institute

> Publication: The Third Wave, Steve Case

> Forecast of the Month: Bill Nye, on Recycling

> Call for Papers: Education 2030 and Beyond

> Mack Report: Arctic Amplification

Hot Topic: Megatrends and Future Research

In case you missed it, OECD released its 2016 report on megatrends earlier this year, titled An OECD Horizon Scan of Megatrends and Technology Trends in the Context of Future Research Policy. The analysis and conclusions should bring no surprises to futurists—the top two megatrends continue to be population (uneven patterns in growth, migration, and aging) and resources (the impacts of climate change on water, energy, and food shortages).

The report focuses three of its five megatrends on clusters of trends within the global economy: the changing geo-economic and geopolitical landscape, digitalization as a change driver in economies and in the way we work, and growing gaps in wealth, health, and knowledge contributing to global divisions.

OECD also analyzes the technologies that promise (or threaten) to have major impacts over the remainder of the 21st century, including the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, neurotechnologies, nanomaterials, additive manufacturing (i.e., 3-D printing), and advanced energy storage technologies.

A relative newcomer to the list of impactful technologies is blockchain, the database technology that made bitcoin possible. As with all technological developments, negative outcomes are a possibility. With blockchain, OECD warns, “The pseudo-anonymity of transactions raises several concerns around the technology’s potential exploitation for illegal activities, ... including money laundering and transfer of value for illegal goods.”

The final section of the report focuses on how research on such trends can be improved to advance policy making. OECD calls for more open access to scientific research (especially that which is supported by taxpayers) as well as “blue-skies” research that is open-ended. Citizen science and silo-breaking multidisciplinary research are also trends that merit direction and support.

This will require new skills, the report notes: “The more open nature of science and the closer links science is building with industry will require researchers to reinforce their ‘soft’ skills, including in project management, team-working, and business and intellectual property awareness.”

Download the report An OECD Horizon Scan of Megatrends and TechnologyTrends in the Context of Future Research Policy 

Signals: megatrends, policy, population, resources, technology

Futurism in the News: Forbes on Corporate Futurists

image: geralt / Pixabay

So you got that great job leading the foresight efforts of a major corporation. Congratulations—but don't get comfortable, Forbes warns in a post provocatively titled “Why Companies Need Corporate Futurists But Will Fire Them Anyway” by contributing writer Stephen Wunker.

Consumer-oriented businesses such as Procter & Gamble, Ford, and Intel have led the way in using corporate anthropologists, ethnolographers, and now futurists to better understand the long-term social, economic, and technological trends influencing their customers' choices, Wunker writes. But today, startups can move from insight to strategy far more nimbly than siloized corporations, putting competitive pressure on futurists to produce actionable results quickly. If they don't, out they go.

Wunker offers tips to help corporate futurists keep their jobs: Become multilingual in the company's languages so you communicate effectively among the various teams of marketers, strategists, and developers. Create a framework that everyone can understand, such as “jobs to be done.” And put your trend insights into the context of opportunities that are already relevant to the company.

“The futurists that do the best job of preparing their companies for what’s coming,” Wunker writes, “will be those that map their insights to contexts, occasions and customer types that are already on the company’s radar.”

Read: “WhyCompanies Need Corporate Futurists But Will Fire Them Anyway” by Stephen Wunker, Forbes, CMO Network (posted April 12, 2016).

Image credit: geralt/ Pixabay

Signals: corporations, futurists

Moves in the Field: The Millennium Project, Future Today Institute

* The Millennium Project has added two new nodes—Armenia and Tunisia—to its global network of futurists. The Armenian node chair is Dr. Artak Barseghyan of the Engineering Academy of Armenia and the Tunisian node chair is Prof. Jelel Ezzine, president of the Tunisian Association for the Advancement of Science, Technology and Innovation. Details: The Millennium Project 

* Futurist Amy Webb has relaunched her consulting firm Webbmedia Group as the Future Today Institute. “We answer 'What’s the future of X?' for a global client base using our data-driven, six-part forecasting methodology,” Webb writes. “Our promise is to inspire smart people to imagine what’s next and to help them make better, more informed decisions, ensuring the vitality of an organization in the face of disruption.” Details: Future TodayInstitute 

Publication: The Third Wave, Steve Case

Subtitled An Entrepreneur's Vision of the Future, AOL co-founder Steve Case's new book is both an homage to pioneering futurist Alvin Toffler and an outline of where the Internet is taking us next. For Case, the creation of the Internet was first wave and the development of social media was the second; the third wave is the seamlessness of interconnectivity that enables such transformative phenomena as the gig economy, where more workers are independent contractors rather than employees. See TheThird Wave: An Entrepreneur’s Vision of the Future by Steve Case, Simon & Schuster (April 2016).

Forecast of the Month: Bill Nye on Recycling

When Business Insider asked Bill Nye why recycling matters, the "science guy" and author of Unstoppable responded that resources once wasted will become valuable in the future. "I predict someday people will be mining landfills," he said. See: "We Asked Bill Nye if RecyclingMatters," Business Insider (posted March 12, 2016).

Call for Papers: Education 2030 and Beyond

The European Journal of Futures Research seeks papers addressing ways to transform education to "prepare students for a future marked by complexity, uncertainty and volatility." The editors request articles that use concrete examples of innovative solutions for curriculum development, integration of future competencies, and understanding of the impacts of social and technological trends. Deadline for abstracts is June 15. Details: European Journal of Futures Research  or contact editor@ejfr.eu.

Mack Report: Arctic Amplification

image: Noel Bauza / Pixabay

In his recent article for the Futures Centre's Forum for the Future, AAI Foresight managing principal Timothy C. Mack reflects on the complexities of the positive and negative feedback systems at work on the Earth's polar regions and the impacts of—and on—human systems and activities.

“Countries adjacent to the Arctic region have been especially energized by the opportunities offered by Arctic transformation,” Mack writes, “including access to new resources and previously inaccessible territories through dramatically reduced summer blockage of potential shipping lanes has given a 21st Century ‘gold-rush’ feeling to the region. While the shipping industry is a clear beneficiary from the decline of summer ice, the thawing of permafrost is quite likely to make many Arctic lands a sea of impassable mud.”

Read: “What does Arctic amplification mean for the planet?” by Timothy Mack, Forum for the Future (posted March 28, 2016).

Image credit: Noel Bauza / Pixabay

Signals: Arctic, Antarctica, climate change

__________

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

© 2016 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Designer: Lisa Mathias

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net

Secretary of the Future ... $100 Trillion Toilet Paper ... and more

Vol. 2, No. 6 | April 13, 2016 | AAI Foresight

News for the Foresight Community

> Hot Topic: Secretary of the Future?
> Relaunches: World Future Society, Communities of the Future
> Blog Report: $100 Trillion Toilet Paper
> Mack Report: More Services, Fewer Jobs?

Hot Topic: Secretary of the Future?

Recently on American Public Media’s Marketplace, David Brancaccio and Katie Long picked up on the late Kurt Vonnegut’s what-if scenario of a cabinet-level futurist. Vonnegut had fretted, “I'll tell you ... one thing that no Cabinet has ever had is a Secretary of the Future, and there are no plans at all for my grandchildren and my great grandchildren.”

Image: Alle / Flickr

The idea, Brancaccio and Long infer, is “to help politicians think harder about how today’s actions might play out in 10, 20, 50 years.” This is a well-established activity in many corporations, such as Intel, where former futurist-in-residence Brian David Johnson’s role included presenting to the decision makers “a future that really wasn’t quite rosy because the company needed to be prepared for that.”

Taking issue with such a proposal is Reason magazine’s science columnist (with solid futurist credentials of his own), Ronald Bailey: “My quick answer,” he writes, “It's a really stupid idea. Human beings are terrible at foresight, and it would be especially terrible to try [to] marry our purblind premonitions to government power.”

Bailey provides an overview of the U.S. government’s predictive failures since the 1970s, suggesting that, unlike businesses, government forecasters bear no real consequences for getting things wrong: “But if a private company gets its forecasts wrong, the worst that happens is that it goes out of business and is replaced by competitors who made the right calls. Markets are superb at marshaling vast quantities of information, and they amply reward foresight and good guesses,” Bailey writes. “The problem with government planning is government power.”

Returning to the idea of a Secretary of the Future, however, let’s look at another possibility: that foresight in government would not be about power or prediction, but about ongoing cross-agency and cross-sector discussions of possible futures and their consequences. This was the basis for such foresight-oriented government entities as the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, the Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future, and then-Senator Al Gore Jr.’s 1990 proposal for a White House-based office to study critical trends. (“The Critical Trends Assessment Act: Futurizing the United States Government,” The Futurist, March-April 1990.)

Former Gore adviser Leon Fuerth outlined such a scenario of ongoing futures discussions in a 2013 article for The Futurist. Fuerth and co-author Evan Faber described ways for government workers below the cabinet level and across agencies to confer and inform each other on emerging trends and their potential consequences—thus fulfilling the goal of  helping “politicians think harder about how today’s actions might play out in 10, 20, 50 years.”

Comment: Shortly after his inauguration, President George W. Bush spoke at a trade association dinner I attended. During the meet-and-greet, I was able to blurt out a challenge to the new president: “We’d like to see more foresight in government!” He responded, without irony: “So would I. It would be a miracle.” —CGW

Sources:  David Brancaccio and Katie Long, “What  If We Had a Secretary of the Future?” Marketplace, posted March 1, 2016. Ronald Bailey, “A U.S. Department of the Future Is a Really Bad Idea,” Reason, posted March 18, 2016.

Reference: Leon Fuerth and Evan Faber, “Anticipatory Governance: Winning the Future,” The Futurist, July-August 2013. PDF available on request.

Image: Alle/Flickr (Creative Commons).

Signals: foresight, futurists, government

Relaunches: World Future Society, Communities of the Future

Two venerable futures organizations have recently relaunched themselves, with new missions and new websites:

* World Future Society, http://www.wfs.org, founded in 1966 by Edward Cornish, invites futurists to “Be a part of our ambitious and exciting plans as we build a community of future-focused leaders who connect across the globe and explore areas of shared interest.” The Society's annual conference this year, themed “A Brighter Future IS Possible,” will serve as a 50th anniversary summit on the organization's future. (Signal courtesy of Jerome C. Glenn.)

* Communities of the Future, http://communitiesofthefuture.org/, founded in 1989 by Rick Smyre, unites futurists at the local level to share visions and resources to actively manage the multifaced changes affecting their communities. As Smyre steps away from being the central driver of COTF's activities, he invites friends and colleagues to participate in building COTF 2.0. (Signal courtesy of Peter Bishop.)

Blog Report: $100 Trillion Toilet Paper

In January 2009, Zimbabwe issued its largest-denomination bank note, a one-hundred-trillion-dollar bill. Soon after, it was not enough to buy a single square of bathroom tissue.

The hyperinflation Zimbabwe was experiencing is an example of a wild card—a low probability, high impact event or condition. Unfortunately, writes environmental futurist David N. Bengston, traditional planning typically focuses on continuous change rather than on potentially life-altering events. In the case of Zimbabwe's hyperinflation, life savings were wiped out, real assets were hoarded, and foreign investment evaporated.

“On the plus side,” Bengston notes, “hyperinflation is good for people who are in debt because they can pay it off with worthless cash. But a complete breakdown of the economy is a steep price to pay for clearing your debt!”

Read: “The Strange Case of the Hundred Trillion Dollar Toilet Paper” by David N. Bengston, Foresight Signals Blog, posted April 1, 2016.

Signals: economics, inflation, wild cards, Zimbabwe

More Services, Fewer Jobs? AI and Automation's Impacts

By Timothy C. Mack

Research and development in artifical intelligence and automation may focus on solving human problems or on developing machine learning; both focuses have potential impacts on creating or eliminating jobs.

On issues of agency, the researchers ask what problems need to be solved and how can AI or robotics solve them. For example, in the delivery of health services, how do you reach remote locations where costs are too high for the lowest income populations? Perhaps digital response and assessment can save lives where human doctors are not available or practical. Similarly, in elementary school settings with insufficient availability of human teachers, could a responsive program serve to tutor struggling students in a personalized way? In these examples, the digital agency is shaped so that the AI function is specific-task oriented.

The other side of this coin is the focus on machine learning, such as by the Google DeepMind project. Its most recent deep learning approaches are self-structured—that is, they are not preprogrammed. The 2015 Deep Q project let a reinforcement-learning program teach itself how to play older Atari video games, with the result that it not only learned very quickly but it surpassed the game creators in developing unique strategies. In this setting, the agency was intentionally independent and somewhat unbounded (except for the focus on video games).  Accordingly, the focus is expansion of AI learning capability (general intelligence).

So the question becomes how these two paths will affect the course of work worldwide in the future. And the clear answer is the old saw, “It’s complicated.” This means that outcomes will be shaped by the dialogues between these viewpoints: targeted problem solving and general capacity building. The spread between these viewpoints is driven not so much by Luddite fears of job replacement by the grandchild of automation in some form of thinking versus acting, but instead by more elemental fears of species replacement with AI as the next and better generation (whether it be augmented humans or digital avatars). It is very likely that both concerns about unbounded AI independence and the drive for efficiency and effectiveness will produce a mix of outcomes as we move forward.

Not only will AI continue to replace humans in many areas, but we will also see digital agents of all sorts assisting humans in areas such as law, medicine, journalism, and so on to improve outcomes. Medical services to groups and regions not served before, reductions in traffic fatalities from assisted-driving software, and better legal representation in an always high-stress field are among many examples ahead.

How we'll manage the cultural and policy impacts is more a political and social question than a technical one, but the policy issues are making themselves felt through the AI R&D world as well. The result, as it plays out, will be fascinating.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc.

Signals: AI, artificial intelligence, automation, education, jobs, work

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