Signals: Living in (Smart) Glass Houses... and more

Vol. 1, No. 12 | April 16, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Living in a (Smart) Glass House

> Food Regulators Urged to Define “Natural”

> Marketing for a Better World: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> In Memoriam: Kenneth W. Harris

Living in a (Smart) Glass House

Colder winters and hotter summers are why living and working in glass-fronted buildings is not smart. These beautiful but energy-inefficient designs are costly for owners and waste tremendous amounts of energy.

Buildings account for a huge portion of overall energy consumption—some 40 percent in Germany, for instance. Fraunhofer Institute researchers in Dresden are now working with students and professors at Weissensee School of Art in Berlin to develop better materials for use in glass façades.

The team is constructing a demonstration model of thermally reactive fabric blinds based on a concept by design student Bára Finnsdottir. The design consists of a matrix of 72 flowerlike fabric components with shape-memory actuators integrated into them. As sunlight hits the façade, the pieces move noiselessly to shield the building from heat.

The researchers hope to have a commercially available system by mid-2017. Looking beyond smarter façades, they envision even better energy capabilities for the concept.

“It might be possible to store solar thermal energy and then release it when needed to heat the interior, for instance at night,” says André Bucht, department head at Fraunhofer IWU. “Another idea is to coat the flower fabric components with malleable, organic solar cells in order to generate electricity that can be used within the building.”

Source: Fraunhofer IWU. Image: © Bára Finnsdóttir, Weissensee School of Art Berlin.

Signals: architecture, design, energy

Food Regulators Urged to Define “Natural”

Food producers, consumers, and regulators all want to know what’s natural, and no one seems to agree. “Artificial” ingredients are a little easier to understand, such as added colors and flavors, but these additives cast suspicions on many food products that may actually be harmless.

With more genetically modified organisms creeping into the food supply, marketers have been put on the defensive to reassure consumers and regulators. Consumers have resorted to lawsuits to demand complete and accurate information on the stuff they stuff into their mouths.

“Though natural food lawsuits to date have disappointed, they encourage marketers to drop the claim of being natural or reformulate their products to avoid future lawsuits,” writes Ross D. Petty of Babson College in the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing. “Perhaps this will persuade the [Food and Drug Administration] or [Federal Trade Commission] to consider creating, finally, a definition for the meaning of natural.”

Source: American Marketing Association

Reference: Ross D. Petty, “‘Natural’ Claims in Food Advertising: Policy Implications of Filling the Regulatory Void with Consumer Class Action Lawsuits,” Journal of Public Policy & Marketing (In Press). DOI:10.1509/jppm.14.147 

Signals: consumers, food, GMO, marketing, regulation

Marketing for a Better World: Report from Timothy C. Mack

Psychology, behavioral economics, and even neuroscience are coming together with digital technology to change the mechanics of human decision making. The goal is to use feedback on consumers’ emotional reactions and to apply conditioning techniques (rewards) to promote the habits of pleasurable actions. Behavior engineering is flowering in such developments as Nir Eyal’s Habit Hook, driven by rapid advances in neuroscience and the emergence of continuous shopping.

But this approach isn’t just about reinforcing habitual consumption; it could also build habits that are actually good for you, such as encouraging more physical activity, getting more rest each night, or being more frugal. Nonprofit organizations could also use such benign behavior building techniques, benefiting from greater sharing of personal information and higher, more reactive transmissions speeds worldwide. Read more.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report is adapted from the Foresight Signals blog. Download his Foresight Report “The Future of Retail Marketing” (Spring 2015).

Signals: addiction, AI, marketing, neuroscience, psychology

In Memoriam: Kenneth W. Harris

The foresight community was saddened to learn of the death earlier this year of Ken Harris, who served the World Future Society and its National Capital chapter for many years. He was also a field editor on transportation for TechCast Global and a member of the Association for Professional Futurists and the Lifeboat Foundation, in addition to his work as a consultant for the Consilience Group.

Ken was an avid sports and fitness fan, enjoying golf, biking, weight training, and numerous other activities, about which he wrote eloquently for The Futurist.

“His interests and expertise ranged from transportation to the sports industry to health, and worked on fundraising and outreach programs,” said AAI Foresight managing consultant Tim Mack. “He was diligent, reliable and indefatigable in his support of the interests of the World Future Society, and he will be greatly missed.”

Ken devoted more than 30 years to federal civil service, working principally at the Federal Aviation Administration. His work in helping the FAA navigate the future of aviation and the economy segued to his post-federal consulting and volunteer work, including leading book discussion groups.

“Ken Harris was among the most dedicated World Future Society volunteers relentlessly advocating for and actively supporting the activities of the futures community,” said former board chair Ken Hunter. “He worked tirelessly to support the WFS chapters and people around the world developing local groups. He also served on many special project teams always contributing time, talent and professionalism to enterprise. It was a pleasure serving with Ken over the decades.”

Ken lived in Bethesda, Maryland, with his wife, Carolyn. At the time of this writing, a date for memorial services had not been set. Condolences may be posted in the comments here or emailed to AAI Foresight and will be forwarded to Carolyn Harris.

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

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© 2015 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

 

Signals: Cybermurder... City Night Lights... 24th Century Medicine... and more

Vol. 1, No. 5 | January 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight SIGNALS

> Has the First Cybermurder Already Happened?

> Satellites Reveal a Global Night-Light Gap

> Boldly Forecasting Emergency Medicine in the 24th Century

> Rooftop Resources Project: Report from Timothy Mack

> Futurists at Work, Foresight in the News

Has the First Cybermurder Already Happened?

The recent spate of attacks ranging from corporate theft to denial of service for gamers has brought new attention to cyberwarfare and cybercrime. The potential for even online murder was one of the forecasts by the Internet Organized Crime Threat Assessment (iOCTA) report. But it’s possible that a cybermurder has already taken place, observes foresight analyst Richard Yonck in his recent post on the Scientific American blog. 

“When hackers cause widespread power outages as they may have done in Brazil nearly a decade ago,” Yonck writes, “isn’t it likely that someone among the millions affected will die due to a lack of electricity? True, such deaths wouldn’t have been specifically targeted, but to any victims and their families that distinction is of little comfort.”

FBI futurist Marc Goodman, author of the forthcoming Future Crimes, adds that even six years ago, “terrorists were using search engines, like Google, to determine who shall live and who shall die,” as he recently noted on Tim Ferriss’s podcast. And technologies that can do more damage are now in more hands: 3-D printers can produce military weapons and bioterrorists can download the recipes for diseases from the Internet.

Indeed, the biggest potential threat from cybercrime is how easy it is becoming for more people to commit it, Yonck argues. We should therefore “give greater consideration to the negative and unanticipated consequences of our new technologies as early in their development as we possibly can, in order to better address their vulnerabilities and shortcomings,” he advises.

And Goodman reminds us that we can do more to protect ourselves from cybercrimes by using common sense: For instance, don’t open links or attachments in e-mails from unknown sources, keep your security software up to date, don’t use the same user names and passwords for all your accounts, and invest in a subscription to a virtual private network if you frequently use public Wi-Fi.

Sources: “Facing Up to Online Murder and Other Cybercrimes” by Richard Yonck, Scientific American Blog (December 3, 2014). “Marc Goodman, FBI Futurist, on High-Tech Crime and How to Protect Yourself,” The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast, December 9, 2014).

Image credits: Surian Soosay (Internet riot police), Tim Reckmann (Anonymous), via Flickr, Creative Commons. Collage by C. G. Wagner for AAI Foresight SIGNALS.

Signals: bioterrorism, cybercrime, hackers, security

Satellites Reveal a Global Night-Light Gap

Not only are American cities brighter at night than German cities are, but the night-light gap actually increases with city size: Larger U.S. cities emit more nighttime light per capita than smaller cities do, while larger German cities emit less.

These findings are the product of new high-resolution night imaging made possible by the European Space Agency’s NightPod instrument, deployed in 2012. Work conducted by the Remote Sensing section of the German Research Center for Geosciences also reveals significant differences in the world’s light sources: Airports and harbors generate most of the night light in megacities of the developing world, while sports stadiums and leisure centers light up the night in wealthier cities of Europe.

The brighter lights of bigger U.S. cities may be due to differences in the types of lamps used, in the architectural features of the cities, or in the amount of trees or other foliage available to block light traveling upward.

The findings also offer data on electricity use and suggest ways to improve lighting efficiency in the world’s cities: Installation of efficient LED lamps, for instance, could reduce future consumption—and minimize light pollution by directing less light upward into the night sky.

Source: GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, Helmholtz Center, Postsdam.

Reference:  C.C.M. Kyba, S. Garz, H. Kuechly, A. Sánchez de Miguel, J. Zamorano, F. Hölker (2015). “High-resolution imagery of Earth at Night: new sources, opportunities, and challenges.” Remote Sensing, 2015, 7(1), 1-23; doi:10.3390/rs70100001

Signals: astronomy, cities, efficiency, energy, imaging

Boldly Forecasting Emergency Medicine in the 24th Century

Humans will be living longer and healthier lives three centuries from now—at least until we’re called into battle against Klingons.

The 50-year-old Star Trek science-fiction franchise has inspired numerous innovations, from fax machines to flat-screen monitors. Now, a team of scholars in Vienna is speculating on how emergency medicine may evolve by analyzing more than 500 episodes from the various Star Trek series.

We’ll still die from cardiac arrests in the future, according to study leader David Hörburger of MedUni Vienna, but the causes will be more related to traumatic events, such as exposure to “energy weapons” and poisoning, rather than to general medical problems, such as arrhythmias.

The study also offers guidance for treatment of cardiac arrests; today, patients have a better chance of survival if they are already in the hospital, while those home alone have the worst survival rates. By contrast, cardiac arrest patients in Star Trek’s twenty-fourth century benefit from teleportation and the hand-held diagnostic “tricorder” device—fictional inventions that are already inspiring today’s medical innovators.

Source: Medical University of Vienna

Reference: D. Hörburger, J. Haslinger, H. Bickel, N. Graf, A. Schober, C. Testori, C. Weiser, F. Sterz, M. Haugk. (2014). “Where no guideline has gone before: Retrospective analysis of resuscitation in the 24th century.” Resuscitation (December: Volume 85, Issue 12, Pages 1790–1794) dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resuscitation.2014.10.008.

Signals: health, medicine, science fiction, Star Trek

Rooftop Resources Project: Report from Timothy Mack

The practical realities of building sustainable networks are coming to life in Oakland, California, under the stewardship of a nonprofit group called Bay Localize as part of its Rooftop Resources Project.

Working with PlaceWorks, a Berkeley design and planning consultancy, Bay Localize is utilizing GIS tools to conduct a search for Green Roof candidates that might host hydroponic gardens, photovoltaic panels, and rainwater-collection systems. Some roofs could be viable for more than one of these uses, although slanted roofs have not worked well for garden sites. (Energy generation requires the slant to be in the right direction.)

The project team then collects a deeper layer of data on the ranges of building use and construction, roof access and materials, structural integrity, and surrounding room for ground-level water-collection tanks. This data can be collected and collated using hand-held devices and then used to calculate gallons of water, kilowatts of electricity, and pounds of vegetables potentially produced by any one rooftop. Read more.

Timothy Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was excerpted from Foresight SIGNALS Blog. Image courtesy of Bay Localize.

Signals: collaboration, energy, gardens, green buildings, hydroponics, photovoltaics, sustainability, urban planning, water

Futurists at Work, Foresight in the News

  

Sci-Fi Author Named Chief Futurist: Magic Leap Inc. has tapped science-fiction author Neal Stephenson, who coined the concept of the “metaverse,” to help develop the technologies behind the company’s products, largely related to games and how users experience artificial worlds. “Neal is a true visionary and the very first to conceptualize a social, virtual world in a coherent way,” said Magic Leap founder, president, and CEO Rony Abovitz  in a press release. Stephenson responded wryly on the company’s blog: “‘Chief Futurist’ runs the risk of being a disembodied brain on a stick. I took the job on the understanding that I would have the opportunity to get a few things done.”

The Futurist Portfolio: South African investment banker Murray Legg believes U.S. companies will continue their momentum in 2015, with technology, health care, and industry delivering “great returns, likely into the low double digits,” he writes on his blog. His Futurist Portfolio comprises companies led by visionaries, “companies that are looking into the future and bringing solutions to market that address the challenges the middle of the bell curve aren’t entirely aware of as yet.” His picks include Naspers, Novo Nordisk, Google, Apple, Alibaba, Tesla, and Airbus. Read: “2015—My Stock Portfolio View,” Murray’s Blog (December 6, 2014).

A Futurist for the Birds? Environmental scientist Jessica Zelt’s work enlisting citizen scientists to produce a database of bird sightings is featured in Audubon magazine. Begun in 2008, the project to digitize the North American Bird Phenology Program now involves more than 2,500 volunteers transcribing handwritten reports as much as 100 years old. Unlocking this historic data promises to help scientists understand the effects of climate change on bird migration. Read: “Three Generations of Citizen Science: The Futurist” by Rachel Nuwer, Audubon (November-December 2014).

Send us your signals and stories! News about your work or other leads, tips, reviews, and ideas are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight SIGNALS with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

Foresight SIGNALS is a publication of AAI Foresight

 1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Building Sustainable Networks: Rooftop Resources Project

By Timothy C. Mack

The practical realities of building sustainable networks are coming to life in Oakland, California, under the stewardship of a nonprofit group called Bay Localize as part of its Rooftop Resources Project.

As a builder of engagement networks, this nonprofit partners with city governments and local communities to assess resources and meet sustainability challenges. These challenges include mitigating the effects of climate instability and energy costs while equipping local leaders with tools and models that are flexible enough to use in a variety of settings. 

Working with PlaceWorks, a Berkeley design and planning consultancy, Bay Localize is utilizing GIS tools to conduct a search for Green Roof candidates that might host hydroponic gardens, photovoltaic panels, and rainwater-collection systems. Some roofs could be viable for more than one of these uses, although slanted roofs have not worked well for garden sites. (Energy generation requires the slant to be in the right direction.)

The project team then collects a deeper layer of data on the ranges of building use and construction, roof access and materials, structural integrity, and surrounding room for ground-level water-collection tanks. This data can be collected and collated using hand-held devices and then used to calculate gallons of water, kilowatts of electricity, and pounds of vegetables potentially produced by any one rooftop.

Concerning food production, hydroponics is showing promise as a strategy to lower roof load; rainwater harvesting usually requires room for at least a 1,000-gallon cistern. After initial assessments, built using a data-management tool known as ArcGIS, the project estimated potential yields of at least 25% of the total power usage of the neighborhood under study and more than enough food production to meet the needs of the 7,000 people living there.

This PlaceWorks approach has been recognized for its potential by the American Planning Association, American Society of Landscape Architects, and Association of Environmental Professionals.

Timothy Mack is the Managing Principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This post originally appeared on the AAI Foresight Blog.