Inside Foresight Signals:
> News from AAI Foresight: Inclusive Foresight for
Finland
> In the News: Ian Pearson Predicts Smarter Bathrooms
> Publication: What
Works, Sohail Inayatullah
> Special Report: 3D Printed Housing, Randall Mayes
News from AAI
Foresight: Inclusive Foresight for Finland
In the latest Foresight Report published by AAI Foresight, one
of Finland’s leading practitioners of government foresight, Ulla Rosenström of the Office of the
Prime Minister, describes the challenges of uniting widely dispersed futures
thinkers and incorporating the viewpoints of their various constituencies. She
provides an overview of the major national foresight programs and academic work
in Finland, as well as lessons learned over recent years that may be adapted in
other countries.
Drawn from an interview with
Nicolas Balcom Raleigh, an international master’s degree student in
futures studies at the University of Turku, “Inclusive Foresight for Finland”
is free report available to download from
www.aaiforesight.com/foresight-reports.
Previous Foresight Reports have covered retail marketing trends and forecasts,
strategies for managing wildfire, and the impacts of IT on other technology
revolutions, including space exploration.
Signals: Finland, futures studies,
governance
In the News: Ian
Pearson Predicts Smarter Bathrooms
Within the next 10 years, mirrors with thin organic LED displays
and high-resolution cameras, connected to the Internet, will offer you quick
health check-ups in your own bathroom. They’ll even perform retina scans and
link you directly to your doctor for analysis and treatment strategies. These
are a few of the forecasts prepared by futurologist
Ian Pearson of
Futurizon for U.K. retailer
Bathrooms.com,
reported by the
Daily Mail.
Signals: health, interior
design, lifestyles, technology
Publication: What Works
Futures scholar
Sohail
Inayatullah has published a new text offering best practices in the
application of foresight analysis.
What
Works: Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight illustrates the transition
from theory to method to outcome of futures principles in organizations,
institutions, cities, and nations. The book may be ordered in print or PDF from
the
Metafuture Bookstore.
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Special
Report: 3D Printed Housing. Will It Transform an Industry, or Will It Destroy
the Economy?
By
Randall Mayes
Abstract:
Given the rapidly growing global population, more affordable and sustainable
housing is urgently needed. Traditional housing construction is
labor-intensive, expensive, takes months to complete, depletes natural
resources, and adds to pollution. But 3D printing technology could address the
need for sustainable and affordable housing both here on Earth and to fashion
extraterrestrial habitats. Although the overall impact on society appears
beneficial, 3D-printed housing could have negative effects on the economy.
s we move closer to 2050, the
global population is rising from its current level of 7 billion to a projected
9 billion. Traditional housing construction is labor intensive, expensive, and
usually takes months to complete. The process also frequently depletes natural
resources and generates greenhouse gases.
But now, builders, and
schools of architecture and engineering are exploring new ways to provide
affordable and quality housing combined with sustainable building practices to
accommodate Earth’s growing population.
Over the past century,
traditional prefabricated housing has provided some positive impacts, but has
not delivered a solution. Factory built prefabricated homes are not necessarily
less expensive than traditional homes since they can range from mobile homes to
multimillion dollar mansions depending on the quality of their components and
square footage.
Life cycle analysis studies
reveal that the primary savings from traditional prefabricated construction
come from reduced energy costs, since the trucks that haul pre-fabricated parts
to the building site are less polluting than the waste produced by older building
methods. Despite these benefits, delivery costs and customizations can offset
the savings from prefabrication.
Three-dimensional printing is
one of the emerging technologies that could have transformative properties for
life in the future. While 3D printed teeth and ceramics have been around for a
while, researchers are now experimenting with other body parts, food, cars, and
airplanes.
Three-dimensional printing
could help provide a solution for the need of more affordable and sustainable
housing. It has the potential to provide higher quality construction at lower
costs, with less carbon dioxide emissions, and reduced energy demands; possibly
a win-win for everyone. And not just houses on Earth! Taxpayer money is even
now supporting research for 3D printed buildings on other planets and the Moon.
But how, exactly, do you
print a house?
How
3D Printed Housing Works
Three-dimensional printing,
or additive manufacturing, is a process of making three dimensional solid
objects from a digital file. In an additive process, the object is created by
applying successive layers of material until the entire object is created.
While still in the early
stages of development, consumers will soon have several choices for obtaining
3D printed houses.
- Prefabricated 3D Printing Using a movable two by
three-and-a-half meter 3D printer, DUS Architects in Amsterdam are
producing individualized modular components in a factory and transporting
them to a building site. The components of the thirteen-room Canal House
are composed of recycled bioplastics.
- DIY Prefabricated 3D Printing The open source website
WikiHouse.com, which is currently under construction, could potentially
enable aspiring homebuilders with access to a 3D printer and a building
site to design their own home, download and print various components, and
assemble it. This method is described as an open source modular LEGO
system. But, despite the claim that you need only minimal skills and
training, it is unlikely that a majority of the population will ever choose
to print components and assemble their own homes.
- Contour Crafting On-Site Construction Contour Crafting, is a
prototype method developed by Behrokh Khoshnevis, a professor of
Industrial Engineering at the University of Southern California. It offers
a streamlined process for construction from acquiring raw materials to
final product assembly using CAD-CAM (computer automated design and
manufacturing) software similar to what is used in manufacturing ceramics.
Khoshnevis has also developed software to embed electrical, plumbing and
air conditioning/heating ductwork conduits in the structure during the 3D
printing process.
At the building site, robotic
arms with nozzles move horizontally on two tracks. In a process similar to
decorating a cake, the nozzle deposits fast-drying, fiber-reinforced concrete
in layers two to three inches deep. The robotic arms can place preprinted beams
over spaces for windows, doors, and for supports for a second story.
With Contour
Crafting, structures are not limited to traditional rectangular shapes but
can include customized orders such as curved walls. CAD-CAM construction can
also design stronger structures at no added cost to better withstand
seismic activity. Contour Crafting-tested walls have 10,000 PSI (pounds per square
inch) strength compared to 3,000 PSI for traditional walls.
Using Contour Crafting,
WinSun Decoration Design Engineering in China claims to be able to build 10
prefabricated 2,000 sq. ft. houses in a single day at a cost of roughly $5,000
per unit. An array of four 3D printers squirts out a cement and recycled
construction materials mixture with the texture of toothpaste. In the future, WinSun hopes to
use this technology to construct skyscrapers. The global project development
and construction group Skanska has also announced that they plan on using 3D
printed concrete for commercial building.
Infrastructural
Hurdles
In order for any new type of
construction to reach market saturation, it will have to overcome numerous
bureaucratic and political challenges.
Building
Codes. Typically,
building inspectors show up in stages over a period of several months. But in
theory 3D printing could soon make it possible to construct a house in less
than 24 hours. Anticipating this problem, Khoshnevis is working on a way to
embed sensors in the walls of a 3D-printed house that would enable continuous
real time visual inspections to ensure that all software-produced materials are
performing to code.
Trade
Unions. With
existing prefabrication projects, trade unions have been known to stall
construction with law suits. It is likely that trade associations will also
fight any changes resulting from 3D printing construction that could negatively
affect their workers. This possibility could seriously detract from 3D printing’s
potential benefits in the field of home construction.
Impacts
upon Society
Like any emerging technology,
the impact 3D printed housing has on society can be both positive and negative.
It can improve the quality of life by making higher quality shelter easier and
more affordable, but it can also be disruptive and contribute to potential
economic wildcards that would be highly transformative.
- Shift in Labor Force. According to the
International Labor Organization construction employs nearly 110 million people
worldwide, “plays a major role in combating the high levels of unemployment and
in absorbing surplus labor from the rural areas.” With 3D construction, window
and door installers, and machinery maintenance workers would still have steady
employment. But Contour Crafting and automated installation systems would
affect or displace construction and drywall workers, carpenters, architects,
and electrical and plumbing subcontractors.
- Worker Safety. Construction is
currently more dangerous for workers than mining or agriculture, resulting in
10,000 deaths a year. But 3D printing could dramatically reduce the rate of on
the job injuries and also reduce exposure to hazardous chemicals.
- Displaced Natural Disaster Victims. The speed of Contour Crafting, should
make it perfect for building emergency shelters for victims of natural
disasters such as Hurricane Katrina which displaced 1.5 million people and
destroyed 200,000 homes in the New Orleans area.
- Space Colonies. With plans now being made
to colonize the Moon and Mars, on-site 3D printing could provide a practical
solution for Lunar and Martian buildings. Transporting building materials from
Earth would take a long time and be very expensive.
Constructing buildings on the
Moon will pose a special challenge to engineers. Researchers are now
investigating the feasibility of telerobotic 3D printing using local building
materials such as moon rocks. This type of construction would make use of solar
energy to power the robot printers and generate electricity for the resulting
houses.
The lunar soil is composed of
abrasive fine particles as the result of meteorites having pulverizing the
surface. Since this abrasive soil is harmful to humans and destructive to the
moving parts of machinery, researchers are investigating the use of Moon rocks
to construct dust barriers.
The Moon has one-sixth the
gravity of the Earth. Consequently its atmosphere is almost a vacuum. Similar
to an airplane cabin, dwellings on the Moon will require pressurization and a
source of breathable air to provide suitable habitation for humans. As a
result, builders will need to be careful to use materials that are rigid enough
to withstand the pressure differences.
The thin atmosphere
surrounding the Moon and Mars provides less protection from solar radiation
than on Earth. Even with a space suit, humans are prone to cancer with several
hours of exposure. Consequently, any dwelling will require shade walls and
radiation shields.
With funding from NASA, Khoshnevis
is attempting to address the challenges for extraterrestrial dwellings using
Contour Crafting. At NASA’s research facility in Arizona for a simulation, he
is constructing Lunar and Martian habitats using 3D printed cement.
Wild
Card: Equity in Jeopardy
While 3D printing may provide
a solution for building space colonies, here on Earth it could wreak real havoc
on the economy. “The printing press led to increased literacy, more accurate
news, and increased threats to government and religious authority. These help
make democracy and capitalism possible,” according to blogger Jeffrey Joslin.
But, he goes on to add, “While the printing press gave birth to capitalism, the
3D printer could be the invention that kills it.”
For comparison purposes, it
is unclear exactly how much a house will cost to build using Contour Crafting.
Like traditional home building, it may vary widely among regions. Besides land,
finished 3D printed homes will also require doors, windows, heat and AC heat
pumps, hot water heaters, paint, porches, sidewalks, and driveways. But even if
3D printing reduced the costs of building by 50 percent, could banks withstand
the financial stress such a revolution in construction might cause?
According to 20th-century
economist Joseph Schumpeter, “creative destruction” (or the replacement of old
ways of doing things by new ones) is built into the capitalist economic system.
While the planned obsolescence for most products and services is typically a
decade or less, for housing, it can be 50-100 years or more. Any dramatic
decrease in the cost of building a home will thus result in a dramatic decrease
in the value of the average home. It is unlikely that homebuyers will be
willing to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for a house that Contour Crafting
can build for tens of thousands of dollars.
With the drastic cut in
traditional home values and trillions of dollars in mortgage debt, the housing
and mortgage industries, as well as many homeowners, would suffer significant
financial losses. Those with traditional homes would lose equity and could owe
more on their home than it is worth. Assuming that the infrastructural barriers
are overcome leading to market saturation but that proactive measures are not
taken to stabilize the housing market, it is uncertain if the global economy
could rebound.
To ensure that the economy does not collapse with
the market saturation of 3D printed housing, the government and the finance
industry will need to take proactive steps. One possible instrument is
insurance. In the automobile industry, buyers can purchase GAP Insurance for protection from accidents. GAP
Insurance covers the difference between the actual value of a vehicle
and the balance still owed on the financing. For housing, the insurance could
include a maximum loss limit which would protect consumers, banks, and the
mortgage industry.
Randall Mayes is Field
Editor for Space and Energy
& Environment at TechCast Global, www.techcastglobal.com, and author of
Revolutions: Paving the Way for the
Bioeconomy (Logos Press, 2012). He may be contacted at
randy.mayes@duke.edu.
Sources
Michael
Maiello, “It’s A Great Time Not to Own a House: The 3D-Printed Housing Market
is About to Kill a Bunch of Banks and Make Houses Actually Affordable,” Esquire, January 24, 2014.
Michael
Molitch-Hou, “The World’s First 3D Printed House Begins Construction,”
January 22, 2014.
Mike
Shedlock, “3D Printer Builds 10 Small Houses a Day for $5,000 Each. Global
Economic Trend Analysis,” April 30, 2014.
Rohit Talwar (editor), The Future of Business, Fast Future
Publishing, 2015.
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