Foresight SIGNALS

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Coal and the Cascading Consequences of Change

By Timothy C. Mack

Much has been said about clean coal, and how it is a “wave of the future.” Clean coal refers to reducing or neutralizing greenhouse gas emissions at the burn point, but regardless of China’s continuing commitment to coal-powered electrical plants, the United States has a natural gas glut and increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. As well, mountaintop leveling, destructive chemical processing, and byproduct disposal challenges continue to complicate any solutions that billion-dollar U.S. projects such as the recently canceled FutureGen might have produced.

In FutureGen, oxy-combustion would have been used in combination with carbon storage to capture at least 90 percent of carbon emissions. Oxy-combustion refers to burning coal with a mix of oxygen and carbon dioxide instead of just ambient air. The United States has identified this approach as the least-cost approach to cleaning up existing coal-fired facilities and capturing CO₂ for geologic storage. But the continued use of coal in any form is the central problem as its cost effectiveness continues to decline.

Coal companies continue to go out of business, but they are not going alone. One industry, sometimes overlooked, that they are negatively impacting is coal transport. With nearly 90 gigawatts of U.S. coal-fired capacity (33 percent of the present total) now scheduled to be retired by 2020 and a 35 percent reduction in coal prices since 2012—plus four major coal company bankruptcies in 2015 alone—industries such as coal barge transport (handling 20 percent of the total) will continue to be dramatically affected by this shift.

Future Impact

The process here is a reversal of the economic development multiplier dynamic, which measures the positive impact of new jobs on regional communities. While water transport reductions largely impact inland waterway regions, systemic change is seldom confined, but cascades outwards, often producing unexpected negative impacts at the same time that industries such as renewable power grow. But renewables need only to transport their resulting electricity, which is in a major paradigm shift from coal—an industry that has been a major part of energy production for well over a century.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc.

Sources:

Tina Casey, “No Future For Clean Coal: $1 Billion Plug Pulled On FutureGen,” CleanTechnica.com February 6, 2015.

Dale Dupont, “Coal Hard Facts: Coal Movements in US Continue to Shrink,” WorkBoat, October 2015.

Images: DOE/wikimedia; MoToMo/Flickr

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Signals: Living in (Smart) Glass Houses... and more

Vol. 1, No. 12 | April 16, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Living in a (Smart) Glass House

> Food Regulators Urged to Define “Natural”

> Marketing for a Better World: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> In Memoriam: Kenneth W. Harris

Living in a (Smart) Glass House

Colder winters and hotter summers are why living and working in glass-fronted buildings is not smart. These beautiful but energy-inefficient designs are costly for owners and waste tremendous amounts of energy.

Buildings account for a huge portion of overall energy consumption—some 40 percent in Germany, for instance. Fraunhofer Institute researchers in Dresden are now working with students and professors at Weissensee School of Art in Berlin to develop better materials for use in glass façades.

The team is constructing a demonstration model of thermally reactive fabric blinds based on a concept by design student Bára Finnsdottir. The design consists of a matrix of 72 flowerlike fabric components with shape-memory actuators integrated into them. As sunlight hits the façade, the pieces move noiselessly to shield the building from heat.

The researchers hope to have a commercially available system by mid-2017. Looking beyond smarter façades, they envision even better energy capabilities for the concept.

“It might be possible to store solar thermal energy and then release it when needed to heat the interior, for instance at night,” says André Bucht, department head at Fraunhofer IWU. “Another idea is to coat the flower fabric components with malleable, organic solar cells in order to generate electricity that can be used within the building.”

Source: Fraunhofer IWU. Image: © Bára Finnsdóttir, Weissensee School of Art Berlin.

Signals: architecture, design, energy

Food Regulators Urged to Define “Natural”

Food producers, consumers, and regulators all want to know what’s natural, and no one seems to agree. “Artificial” ingredients are a little easier to understand, such as added colors and flavors, but these additives cast suspicions on many food products that may actually be harmless.

With more genetically modified organisms creeping into the food supply, marketers have been put on the defensive to reassure consumers and regulators. Consumers have resorted to lawsuits to demand complete and accurate information on the stuff they stuff into their mouths.

“Though natural food lawsuits to date have disappointed, they encourage marketers to drop the claim of being natural or reformulate their products to avoid future lawsuits,” writes Ross D. Petty of Babson College in the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing. “Perhaps this will persuade the [Food and Drug Administration] or [Federal Trade Commission] to consider creating, finally, a definition for the meaning of natural.”

Source: American Marketing Association

Reference: Ross D. Petty, “‘Natural’ Claims in Food Advertising: Policy Implications of Filling the Regulatory Void with Consumer Class Action Lawsuits,” Journal of Public Policy & Marketing (In Press). DOI:10.1509/jppm.14.147

Signals: consumers, food, GMO, marketing, regulation

Marketing for a Better World: Report from Timothy C. Mack

Psychology, behavioral economics, and even neuroscience are coming together with digital technology to change the mechanics of human decision making. The goal is to use feedback on consumers’ emotional reactions and to apply conditioning techniques (rewards) to promote the habits of pleasurable actions. Behavior engineering is flowering in such developments as Nir Eyal’s Habit Hook, driven by rapid advances in neuroscience and the emergence of continuous shopping.

But this approach isn’t just about reinforcing habitual consumption; it could also build habits that are actually good for you, such as encouraging more physical activity, getting more rest each night, or being more frugal. Nonprofit organizations could also use such benign behavior building techniques, benefiting from greater sharing of personal information and higher, more reactive transmissions speeds worldwide. Read more.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report is adapted from the Foresight Signals blog. Download his Foresight Report “The Future of Retail Marketing” (Spring 2015).

Signals: addiction, AI, marketing, neuroscience, psychology

In Memoriam: Kenneth W. Harris

The foresight community was saddened to learn of the death earlier this year of Ken Harris, who served the World Future Society and its National Capital chapter for many years. He was also a field editor on transportation for TechCast Global and a member of the Association for Professional Futurists and the Lifeboat Foundation, in addition to his work as a consultant for the Consilience Group.

Ken was an avid sports and fitness fan, enjoying golf, biking, weight training, and numerous other activities, about which he wrote eloquently for The Futurist.

“His interests and expertise ranged from transportation to the sports industry to health, and worked on fundraising and outreach programs,” said AAI Foresight managing consultant Tim Mack. “He was diligent, reliable and indefatigable in his support of the interests of the World Future Society, and he will be greatly missed.”

Ken devoted more than 30 years to federal civil service, working principally at the Federal Aviation Administration. His work in helping the FAA navigate the future of aviation and the economy segued to his post-federal consulting and volunteer work, including leading book discussion groups.

“Ken Harris was among the most dedicated World Future Society volunteers relentlessly advocating for and actively supporting the activities of the futures community,” said former board chair Ken Hunter. “He worked tirelessly to support the WFS chapters and people around the world developing local groups. He also served on many special project teams always contributing time, talent and professionalism to enterprise. It was a pleasure serving with Ken over the decades.”

Ken lived in Bethesda, Maryland, with his wife, Carolyn. At the time of this writing, a date for memorial services had not been set. Condolences may be posted in the comments here or emailed to AAI Foresight and will be forwarded to Carolyn Harris.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Signals: The Consequences of Adaptation... and more

Vol. 1, No. 11 | April 1, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Adaptation and Its Consequences

> From Natural Gas to Biogas

> Contingency Exercises Urged for Power Companies

> Nanotech and Cancer: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> News for the Foresight Community

Adaptation and Its Consequences

The efforts that societies put into adapting to climate change may in themselves put even more pressure on the environment, warns a study led by Carlo Fezzi of the University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences.

The researchers used computer models based on data since the 1970s to predict how climate change would alter agricultural practices in Britain, and how those changes would in turn affect river water quality. They found that, though moderate increases in temperature could boost agricultural productivity and allow for more livestock in the eastern uplands and midlands, the increased intensity in farming and herding would generate more runoff of nitrates and phosphates in rivers and streams.

Similarly, other industries that are forced to adapt to climate change, such as energy, forestry, fisheries, and even health services, will also have to beware of the “knock on” effects of adaptation, the researchers warn.

“We need to take into account not only the direct impact of climate change, but also how people will respond to such change—the impact of adaptation,” Fezzi said in a press statement. “Climate change is a long-term process and science allows us to anticipate its impact on both the environment and society. This should encourage the development of forward-looking policies.”

Source: University of East Anglia. Reference: Carlo Fezzi et al., “The environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality,” Nature Climate Change (March 2015), pp. 255-260. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2525. Image: Graeme Law, via Flickr (Creative Commons license).

Signals: adaptation, agriculture, climate change

From Natural Gas to Biogas

Pilgrim’s, a chicken-processing plant in Mexico, has been able to purify fats, waste, and other residues to produce a biogas capable of replacing natural gas as its energy source. And Xaquixe, a pottery and glass-art maker, has generated biogas from pig and cow manure, providing energy for its operations.

The two companies were participants in pilot projects to demonstrate techniques developed by Mexico’s Center for Research and Technological Development in Electrochemistry (CIDETEQ), in partnership with specialists from the University of Brandenburg in Germany.

The biogas generated is a mixture of methane, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and water vapor, as well as potentially harmful compounds like hydrogen sulfide. As such, the biogas must be properly assessed and treated before it can be used.

Distillers of mescal, a liquor similar to tequila, may also benefit from the process, using biogas to replace firewood.

Details (in Spanish): Investigación y Desarrollo.

Signals: bioprocessing, energy, recycling

Contingency Exercises Urged for Power Companies

A hacking attack on a power distribution company isn’t just the IT department’s problem, and in a crisis, everyone needs to be prepared, warn Maria Line and Nils Brede Moe of the research consortium SINTEF.

In Norway, the power industry has been too “laid back,” despite experiencing the country’s first attack in the summer of 2014. Line and Moe observed contingency exercises with three power-distribution companies and found them largely unprepared for a variety of scenarios.

“One of the companies we talked to had an agreement simply to call and rely on its supplier if a crisis occurred,” Line said in a press statement. “And even then, the supplier didn't take part in the exercise.”

Based on their observations, Line and Moe recommend that as many employees as possible participate in contingency exercises, especially including upper management who would be the key decision makers if the call must be made to shut down a plant.

Frequent scenario exercises are also important, but the same exercises should not be repeated; rather, new contingencies must continually be imagined and prepared for, the researchers conclude.

Source: SINTEF via AlphaGalileo

Signals: emergency management, hackers, IT, power distribution, scenario planning, utilities

Nanotech and Cancer: Report from Timothy C. Mack

One of the most encouraging trends in medicine in recent years is the growth of systemic approaches to problem solving, such as in improving chemotherapy delivery in cancer treatment.

Historically, the challenge has been to target drugs accurately at cancer cells; the powerful drugs may often cause damage to surrounding healthy tissue. The body may also treat these medical interventions as intruders, attacking and disabling them through human immune mechanisms.

Recently, researchers have used nanotech to create protective vehicles and delivery mechanisms that now appear to overcome these obstacles. After delivering drugs to their targets, these vehicles dissolve in the high-acid cores of cancer tumors. As is often the case in new and converging technological developments, developments such as this are likely to further accelerate advances in related technology solutions. Read more.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report is excerpted from the Foresight Signals blog. Image: Rhoda Baer, National Cancer Institute.

Signals: cancer, medicine, nanotechnology

News for the Foresight Community

• Honors: Young Futurists of 2015. Influential media company The Root has named 25 young African Americans to its 2015 Young Futurists list honoring social activism and academic and entrepreneurial achievements of students ages 16 to 22. Among this year’s honorees is Allyson Carpenter, 18, of Howard University, who became the youngest elected official in Washington, D.C. The Root covers news, opinion, and culture from an African American perspective.

• Book: The Naked Future. Technology journalist Patrick Tucker’s 2014 book The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? is now out in paperback! (Current, 2015, $16.) The cloth edition released last year was named Amazon’s book of the month for March: “Tucker has penned a big data book that can be understood by both technophiles and luddites alike,” wrote Amazon reviewer Kevin Nguyen. And Ray Kurzweil, author of How to Create a Mind, called it “Thought-provoking, eye-opening, and highly entertaining.” Patrick Tucker is the technology reporter/editor with Defense One; follow him on Twitter, @DefTechPat.

• Petition: Open Letter on AI. The Boston-based Future of Life Institute has posted an open letter on research priorities for artificial intelligence, aiming to ensure “that increasingly capable AI systems are robust and beneficial.” Among the dozens of signatories to the letter are theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking, SpaceX and Tesla Motors founder Elon Musk, Google research director Peter Norvig, philosophy professor Nick Bostrom, io9 contributing editor George Dvorsky, and science-fiction author David Brin. Details: Future of Life. Download PDF: Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence.

• Signal of the Month: DEAL. The jobs outlook in the United States faces a new DEAL: the combined forces of Demographics, Education, Automation, and Longevity (The Gordon Report, March 2015). Baby boomers will be living longer, and they’ll need to be replaced in the workforce. If they wish to continue working, they’ll need appropriate training, as automation takes over many low-skill and middle-skill jobs. Signal courtesy of Edward E. Gordon, president of Imperial Consulting Corporation.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net

Designer: Lisa Mathias

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Signals: Energy for Mars... Deforestation and Species Loss... Customers Too Engaged? and more

Vol. 1, No. 10 | March 18, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Harvesting Energy on Mars

> Deforestation and Species Loss in the Amazon

> Can Customers Be Too Engaged?

> Jumping Technology Categories: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> News for the Foresight Community

Harvesting Energy on Mars

A major technological hurdle to colonizing Mars is providing a sustainable source of energy for travelers and inhabitants. Researchers at Northumbria University are developing an engine that can harvest energy from carbon dioxide, which is apparently abundant on Mars in the form of dry ice. The breakthrough also means that a ticket to Mars need not be one way, according to scientists.

The technique, described in the journal Nature Communications, exploits a phenomenon known as the Leidenfrost effect, which produces energy when a liquid comes in contact with a surface much hotter than the liquid’s boiling point. With solid carbon dioxide (dry ice), the Leidenfrost effect creates a vapor, which the Northumbria team believes can be captured to power an engine with significantly less friction.

“One thing is certain, our future on other planets depends on our ability to adapt our knowledge to the constraints imposed by strange worlds, and to devise creative ways to exploit natural resources that do not naturally occur here on Earth,” said co-author Rodrigo Ledesma-Aguilar in a press statement.

Source: Northumbria University

Reference: Gary G. Wells, Rodrigo Ledesma-Aguilar, Glen McHale, and Khellil Sefiane, “A sublimation heat engine,” Nature Communications 6, Article number: 6390, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7390

Signals: energy harvesting, Mars

Deforestation and Species Loss in the Amazon

A third of the Amazon is approaching a tipping point in deforestation that will accelerate species loss. By 2030, these endangered areas could lose 31 percent to 44 percent of species, predicts a team of Cambridge University researchers.

Historically, just one or two species is lost for every 10 percent loss of forest coverage; however, when an area dips below a threshold of 43 percent of forest coverage, species loss accelerates to two to eight species per 10 percent forest loss.

Pressure on land use comes largely from agriculture, as farmers work to meet the demands of growing (and increasingly affluent) human populations. In Brazil, individual landowners are required to retain 80% forest cover, but this is rarely achieved, according to the researchers. A more successful approach might be to consider entire landscapes rather than individual farms, and to promote practices that stop deforestation above the threshold.

The research supports a new approach to environmental legislation in Brazil and the tropics, said study leader Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero in a press statement. “We need to move from thinking in terms of compliance at a farm scale to compliance at a landscape scale if we are to save as many species as we can from extinction,” he concluded.

Source: University of Cambridge. Image: Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero

Reference: Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero, Toby A. Gardner, Isabel Rosa, Silvio Frosini de Barros Ferraz, and William J. Sutherland, “Thresholds of species loss in Amazonian deforestation frontier landscapes,” Conservation Biology, 2015 (Vol. 29, issue 1). DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12446

Signals: agriculture, Amazon, biodiversity, deforestation, species loss

Can Customers Be Too Engaged?

Increasing audience engagement has long been a mantra in brand promotion, but a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research suggests that some audience members may be too engaged for a brand’s good.

Using the popular American reality TV series America’s Next Top Model as a case study, researchers Marie-Agnès Parmentier (HEC Montréal) and Eileen Fischer (York University) examined how social media enabled and encouraged fans to interact with the show and with other fans. Though the show encouraged this engagement, its consequences were often out of the producers’ control.

Thanks to their engagement, many fans felt encouraged to persistently and passionately offer their advice regarding things they didn’t like about the show (change of format, new judges, etc.). The unintended consequence was to contribute to a negative image of the show among other fans. The researchers conclude that the most enthusiastic fans may have thus inadvertently contributed to the show’s declining popularity.

The lesson for brands: Beware of what you wish for. “Ironically, fans may contribute to the destabilization of a brand even as they are trying to help prevent this,” write Parmentier and Fischer. “While fans can be conducive to brand value creation or co-creation, they can equally contribute to value co-destruction.”

Reference: Marie-Agnès Parmentier and Eileen Fischer, “Things Fall Apart: The Dynamics of Brand Audience Dissipation,” Journal of Consumer Research, February 2015 (Vol. 41, No. 5). DOI: 10.1086/678907

Signals: audience engagement, brands, marketing, social media

Jumping Technology Categories: Report from Timothy C. Mack

In Silicon Valley, the blessing (or curse) of vast disposable resources appears to be leading a number of companies out of the arena of computer software and hardware development into such terra incognita as Google’s self-driving, electric-powered car.

Google already has five years of R&D invested in this self-driving car project. However, how well would Google find its way in an entirely new marketplace with technology of a distinctly new level? As Mashable writer Lance Ulanoff notes, there are as many as 6,000 parts in an automobile, and there is a much higher standard for drivability and driver safety than is required for software and hardware.

The price points involved in such a quantum shift are quite intimidating, considering both the overhead investment per unit and the volume of units that would need to be sold to make the numbers work.

As I have observed elsewhere, the liability issues for self-driving cars are likely to take years and maybe even decades to sort out. Unintended consequences arise from even small shifts in direction. The outcomes of such an adventure are difficult to estimate, but they are likely to be substantial and messy. Read more

Timothy C. Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was excerpted from the Foresight Signals Blog. Image: Google Blog

News for the Foresight Community

• Book: The Great Transition. Earth Policy Institute President Lester Brown’s latest book, The Great Transition: Shifting From Fossil Fuels to Solar and Wind Energy
(W.W. Norton, 2015), is now available for pre-order. Co-authored with EPI researchers Janet Larsen, J. Matthew Roney, and Emily E. Adams, The Great Transition documents the global movement toward the energy choices that are leading to a new economy. As the costs of solar and wind power fall, their spread will accelerate. Read Chapter 1, Changing Direction. Order the book.

• Conference: Tackling Wicked Problems. The World Conference of Futures Research 2015, to be held June 11-12, 2015, in Turku, Finland, will explore how the study of the future can be used to address today’s most perplexing problems. Among the featured speakers at “Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems” will be Thomas Lombardo of the Center for Future Consciousness; Kerstin Cuhls, scientific manager at Fraunhofer ISI; and Sirkka Heinonen of the Finland Futures Research Centre at the University of Turku. Details.

• Call for Papers: Innovation and Degrowth. A special issue of Prometheus: Critical Studies in Innovation will explore the concept of sustainable degrowth as an alternative approach to human progress that decouples innovation and economic growth. Guest editors for the issue are Steffen Roth, ESC Rennes School of Business, France; Miguel Pérez-Valls, University of Almeria, Spain; and Jari Kaivo-oja, University of Turku, Finland. Submission details.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net

Designer: Lisa Mathias

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Signals: Wave Energy... Unequal Inequality... Craft Villages... and more

Vol. 1, No. 9 | March 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Wave Energy Gears Up

> Income Inequality Is Unequal in Europe

> “Craft Villages” May Succumb to Globalization

> Battery Challenges in Coming Years: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> Announcements from AAI Foresight

Wave Energy Gears Up

Harvesting the power of the oceans to produce cheap electricity has long been a dream of green engineering. So far, however, wave energy has been hampered by the inconsistencies of waves themselves, which vary in timing and height, making it difficult to create a reliable conversion system.

Now, a Swedish company, CorPower Ocean, reports that its new wave system can anticipate the sizes of incoming waves so that it can capture the entire spectrum of wave energy. As a result, the company claims, it can generate five times more energy than current state-of the-art systems and for a third of the cost.

The CorPower system also benefits from a “cascade” gear, designed at Sweden’s Royal Institute of Technology (KHT), which efficiently converts linear motion into rotation. Its numerous small pinions and wheels enable the device to handle heavy loads and high velocities.

The company plans to install a half-scale pilot version of the technology in November 2015 in cooperation with the multinational electric utility company Iberdrola.

Source: KHT Royal Institute of Technology. Images: Courtesy of CorPower Ocean.

Signals: electricity, energy, green engineering

Income Inequality Is Unequal in Europe

The income gap widened in two-thirds of the European Union between 2006 and 2011, but inequality decreased in at least eight EU countries, notably Portugal and Greece, according to a study by the University of Barcelona.

Hardest hit by income inequality were Spain, Cyprus, Hungary, and Slovakia, but the gap was due mostly to increased unemployment rather than to changes in income levels among the employed populations. Further analysis of post-recession data will shed light on the impacts “of precarious forms of work, for instance part-time jobs, on wage inequality,” researcher Raúl Ramos said in a press statement.

In many cases, governments have attempted to combat wage inequality by increasing the minimum wage; however, the real purchasing power of these wages were reduced by the recession. The study also found that policies aimed at improving competition helped reduce inequality in annual wages.

Source: University of Barcelona. Details: Wage and Income Inequality in the European Union

Signals: economics, European Union, inequality

“Craft Villages” May Succumb to Globalization

The twin forces of globalization and urbanization offer both opportunities and challenges for rural villages. In Vietnam, a system of specialized “craft villages” has offered rice farmers off-season employment and security for centuries; while modernized production technologies and newly opened markets gave them a boost in the 1980s, new threats to their existence have recently emerged.

Vietnam has thousands of craft villages—more than 500 surrounding Hanoi alone—each specializing in a particular craft, such as artworks, textiles, woven goods, or religious objects. These ancient village systems self-organize into related clusters to enhance productivity and labor resources. They now provide work for almost 20% of the rural population of working age, with far better incomes than from agricultural work, according to studies led by Sylvie Fanchette of Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD).

The craft village system began to flourish with improved productivity and access to export markets, but new competition quickly entered in the form of foreign manufacturers seeking cheap labor, the IRD researchers note. The influx of heavy industry has also led to competition for the agricultural land that the craft villages rely on.

As the craft villages succumb to globalization and urbanization, the skills developed and handed down by generations of craft workers may disappear, as well.

Source: IRD. Image: Michael Foley Photography, via Flickr (Creative Commons).

Signals: crafts, culture, globalization, industrialization, urbanization, Vietnam

Battery Challenges in Coming Years: Report from Timothy C. Mack

Electric vehicles (EVs) continue to climb in attractiveness, with the Tesla Model S winning acceleration comparisons hands down. Their environmental advantages are clear, but the cost and recharge requirements of automobile batteries continue to stand in the path of broad market acceptance of EVs.

A good deal of battery science is now proceeding on trial and error; when those innovations work, the reason why is still often unclear, as BusinessWeek writer Steve LeVine explains in his new book, The Powerhouse (Viking, 2015). In fact, it may be likely that more progress in battery technology can be achieved incrementally through engineering or manufacturing approaches (or even by lightly tweaking the chemistry of battery materials), rather than through dramatic new breakthroughs—which may include unforeseen pitfalls down the road.

Futurists may often become enamored by the promise of a new technology and its transformative potential while not giving the practical side of technology adoption enough thought, especially potential operational obstacles. This is particularly true in the new materials arenas, where nanotech and composite materials are literally creating new science and the rules of the game are still being discovered. Read more

Timothy C. Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was excerpted from the Foresight Signals Blog. Image: Tesla Motors, via Facebook.

Signals: batteries, electric vehicles, materials engineering, transportation

Announcements from AAI Foresight

* New Logo! Thanks go to graphic artist Lisa Mathias for our spiffy new logo for this newsletter! Formerly the art director of the World Future Society, Lisa is also a gifted studio artist. Visit her graphics portfolio at Lisa Mathias Design and her fine art portfolio at LisaMathias.com.

* “Foresight Reports” Publication Project Launched. AAI Foresight has released its first industry forecast white paper, “The Future of Retail Marketing,” to introduce a series of semiannual publications for the firm’s clients. The reports, which will initially be free of charge, will be available to logged-in visitors at the AAI Foresight Web site.

The goal of Foresight Reports is to demonstrate the application of sound foresight techniques to improve the analysis of a key issue affecting our future, be it an economic sector or an ecosystem. The papers will largely be invited by AAI Foresight or written by members of its established consulting partners, but we will also consider submissions. Please contact Tim Mack or Cindy Wagner for details.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner