Signals: Obesity and the Knowledge Worker ... We Are One ... and more

Vol. 2, No. 1 | November 3, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Obesity and the Knowledge Worker

> Combining 3D Printing and Clean Energy

> Hot Topic: Travel, Tourism, and Technology

> News from AAI Foresight: New Website ... We Are One!

> Mack Report: Coal’s Future Impacts

Obesity and the Knowledge Worker

You’re a highly skilled knowledge worker of the Information Age, with decision-making authority over your equally skilled employees. Feeling good about yourself? Hang on.

Research has shown that having a high level of control over your job can mitigate the stresses involved that contribute to obesity. But a team of Australian researchers now observes that different types of job control—skill discretion and decision authority—have different effects: Skilled workers with freedom to use those skills had lower body mass index and smaller waist size, while workers required to make a lot of decisions had bigger waist size.

With a global population of overweight people approaching 2 billion, researchers are pursuing a wide range of factors behind the growing epidemic. “When looking at the wide system of factors that cause and maintain obesity, work stress is just a small part of a very large and tangled network of interactive factors,” said lead author Christopher Bean, a health psychology PhD candidate from the University of Adelaide, in a press statement.

Reference: Christopher G. Bean, Helen R. Winefield, Charli Sargent, and Amanda D. Hutchinson, “Differential associations of job control components with both waist circumference and body mass index,” Social Science & Medicine, Volume 143 (October 2015), published by Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.08.034.

Signals: health, information age, knowledge workers, obesity, stress, work

Combining 3D Printing and Clean Energy

Additive manufacturing processes (aka 3D printing) have come a long way from rapid prototyping. A project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory merges building and vehicle construction with clean energy systems to create a possible solution to the challenges of the modern electric grid, such as intermittent outages and the impacts of extreme weather.

For its Additive Manufacturing Integrated Energy (AMIE) demonstration, ORNL and partners printed both a natural-gas-powered hybrid electric vehicle and a solar-powered building, connecting them to create an integrated energy system. The intermittent power from the building’s 3.2-kilowatt solar array is balanced with supplemental power from the vehicle via the system’s central control.

“Working together, we designed a building that innovates construction and building practices and a vehicle with a long enough range to serve as a primary power source,” said ORNL’s Roderick Jackson, who led the AMIE demonstration project. “Our integrated system allows you to get multiple uses out of your vehicle.”

Details: Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Image: Carlos Jones, courtesy of ORNL.

Signals: construction, energy, 3D printing

Hot Topic: Travel, Tourism, Traffic, and Technology

Advances in transportation technology over the past 50 years have enabled people to travel farther than ever, and to spend less time doing so. While investment in transportation has expanded employment and leisure opportunities, the total number of trips that people take has remained stable since 1965, according to Britain's latest National Transportation Survey, reported in the journal Significance.

Many current advances in transportation technologies go largely unseen, as in Fraunhofer IAO’s UR:BAN research initiative to create safer and more efficient streets in tomorrow’s cities. The project combines cognitive assistance technologies, networked traffic systems, and human factors research that will help predict what drivers, pedestrians, and others will do, preventing accidents and optimizing travel.

Other technologies affecting travel trends include smartphones, wearable devices, and social networking that have converged to create the booming sharing economy as exemplified by Airbnb, Couchsurfing, Nightswapping, and others, writes Singapore futurist Harish Shah.

“As these Sharing Economy models gradually converge with other developments also driven by technological evolution, they will very much impact the way the conventional hospitality industry players will have to do business,” Shah writes. Up next: telepresence robotics and 4D virtual reality that eliminate the need to travel altogether.

But technology is not the only force driving change in travel trends. As TechCast Global observes in its case study of Las Vegas, stresses in both the climate and the economy could lead desert-bound cities in the dust.

“Ten years from now, [Las Vegas] may have been evacuated and overrun by desert,” TechCast reports. “This gaudy entertainment capital faces serious challenges in the coming decades. They could be even worse in the years beyond 2035.”

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News from AAI Foresight: New Website … We Are One!

This fall, AAI Foresight introduced an all-new website designed by Lisa Mathias. The site is designed to improve user navigation and integration with AAI’s publications and projects. As is the future itself, the site is a work-in-progress, so please browse and send us your feedback.

Plus, Foresight Signals celebrates its first birthday with this edition! Highlights of the past year include:

• 10 Consumer Trends in Latin America
• Peak Youth: Preparing Now for an Aging Planet
• Has the First Cybermurder Already Happened?
• Living in a (Smart) Glass House
• The Challenges of a Rising China
• Hot Topic: World Population in 2100

Also beginning with this edition (Volume 2, Number 1), Foresight Signals will be published monthly. It will still be free, and it will still cover a variety of stories for and about the foresight community. Share your stories, news, feedback, and signals with us and your fellow foresight professionals. Log in to comment here or write to consulting editor Cindy Wagner at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com.

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Mack Report: Coal’s Future Impacts

As coal-based energy declines, it will take other enterprises down with it, writes AAI Foresight Managing Principal Timothy C. Mack in his latest blog, “Coal and the Cascading Consequences of Change.”

Clean coal was long considered the wave of the future, but the U.S. government’s cancellation of the FutureGen project, which would have used oxy-combustion (considered the least-cost approach to clean coal), means more coal companies will fold.

One of the businesses affected by this decline is coal transportation, which often relies on waterways, Mack observes: “While water transport reductions largely impact inland waterway regions, systemic change is seldom confined, but cascades outwards, often producing unexpected negative impacts at the same time that industries such as renewable power grow.”

Read “Coal and the Cascading Consequences of Change.”

Signals: coal, energy, transportation

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

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© 2015 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Harnessing the Skills of Senior Workers

By Timothy C. Mack

Problems such as poverty, global health, basic education, and environmental quality are systemic in nature, have both political and technical dimensions, and tend to require cross-sector and cross-profession collaboration. But there is a knowledge gap in developing and implementing viable solutions.

For example, an aging but healthier population includes accomplished leaders who are increasingly interested in public service. Many in this group seek meaningful contributions rather than income, but there is an absence of established pathways. The opportunity this population presents has not been addressed by higher education.

In the past, American universities have tackled major challenges not by incremental change but by founding new graduate and professional schools to educate experienced leaders who wish to tackle societal and global problems in their next phase of life. Such “schools for advanced institutional leadership” could offer more than retraining for new careers. For example, they could focus on honing the knowledge required to lead social institutions and address global challenges.

This approach sounds very similar to that long taken by the foresight community: working across disciplines, taking a systems view of problems, and being willing to craft innovation solutions, including applying new technologies.

The above is a summary of a proposal by Rosabeth Moss Kanter and her colleagues titled “Moving Higher Education to its Next Stage.” Since the time of publication as a working paper in 2005 by the Harvard Business School, this approach has appeared in a number of forms at such leading institutions as Stanford University, state social programs, and nonprofits. In the decade since its publication, the concept has moved beyond the resources and mindset of developed countries and transformed itself beyond the university setting.

Despite its broad appeal, this approach views senior workers as a fully developed resource that stands ready for direction and a few new skills. What thought-leaders have ignored are the financial, health, and even psychological challenges facing this population. Stated in another way, the biggest challenge is not what the nation needs from seniors but what they need from the nation (or the larger community). Should we commit to harnessing a resource that by its nature is diminishing at an increasing rate?

By this observation, I do not mean that the volume of the resource is diminishing. On the contrary, demographic forces are driving the growth of volume of senior workers and will continue to do so for decades to come. What I am referring to is the natural decline of productivity of individual workers as their age increases. Of course, there are some extraordinary exceptions, and technology, exercise, and diet (and even genetic manipulation) continue to provide counterforces to this march of the impact of time. But the ROI formula raises the most concern. Why continue to invest in worker resources that by their nature are more often moving out of the workforce rather than into it?

There are two answers to this crucial question. First, when handled with care, engaged and utilized populations are more robust in term of personal productivity, including their transmission of valuable experience and honed skill sets. Second, the overall social costs are lower for the care of older populations who are healthier, both mentally and physically. These social costs are just beginning to be measured and understood, and in countries such as Japan, they are a growing cause for political and policy-making concern.

To summarize: The tools and insights of foresight have significant utility and relevance in addressing coming social, economic, and political challenges, such as the plight and potential of growing elderly populations worldwide. Policy makers at all levels should be aware that any set of solutions to these problems will generate as many new challenges as easing of demographic pressures.

The fact that this issue falls into the “wicked problem” category should not in any way diminish the moral and social necessity to find solutions. As has often been observed, aging may be put off with a range of strategies, but this is not epidemiology. The “disease” of old age may be mitigated, but never cured. And it is always fatal.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc.

Reference: “Moving Higher Education to Its Next Stage: A New Set of Societal Challenges, a New Stage of Life, and a Call to Action for Universities” by Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Rakesh Khurana, and Nitin Nohria. Harvard Business School Working Paper 06-21, November 2005.

Signals: Minor Infections, Major Problems... Waterless Recycling... Autonomous Autos... and more

Vol. 1, No. 7 | February 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight 

Inside Foresight SIGNALS

> Minor or Hidden Infections May Accelerate Mortality

> Dry Innovation for Plastics Recycling

> Liability and the Self-Driving Car: Report from Timothy Mack

> Scholarly Researchers Embrace Skepticism

> Futurists and Foresight in the News

Minor or Hidden Infections May Accelerate Mortality

If you escaped that horrific flu or other infection that’s been going around in your neighborhood, school, or workplace, you may count yourself lucky. Maybe you only got a mild infection, or felt well and kept on working just as effectively as ever. The bad news is that such hidden or mild, untreated infections could be shortening your life.

In studies of migratory birds with mild malaria infections, researchers at Sweden’s Lund University discovered that the cumulative effects of chronic infections shortened the birds’ telomeres—the caps on chromosomes that protect DNA—accelerating the aging process.

“The small, non-measureable effects of the chronic disease appear to underlie the accelerated shortening of the telomeres. When the telomeres get too short, this has a fatal effect and causes premature death,” said Lund researcher Dennis Hasselquist of the Department of Biology, a member of the research team. “If this is a general mechanism for any type of mild, chronic infection, which is quite possible, it will mean our study is of major interest to understand the impact that mild illnesses can have on other organisms, including humans.”

Reference: M. Asghar, D. Hasselquist, B. Hansson, P. Zehtindjiev, H. Westerdahl, S. Bensch, “Hidden costs of infection: Chronic malaria accelerates telomere degradation and senescence in wild birds,” Science (January 23, 2015), Vol. 347, No. 6220, pp. 436-4381. DOI: 10.1126/science.1261121 

Signals: aging, health, longevity, telomeres

Dry Innovation for Plastics Recycling

Water-intensive processes for recycling plastic waste could one day be replaced with new techniques that don’t require liquids. A dry recycling process developed by Ak Inovex of Mexico also promises to reduce energy consumption, use less space, and cut costs.

Using customizable machinery, the process can work with any type of plastic material, such as Styrofoam and polystyrene, to produce small plastic beads or pellets. Rather than dehydrating the original materials at high heat and then cooling them with water, Ak Inovex uses a patent-pending process of cooling through contact with special walls.

The company now plans to add biodetergents to the cleaning process for the recycled plastic products, thus keeping water use and costs at the lowest possible levels. Ak Inovex was a participant in Cleantech Challenge Mexico, a contest to promote the development of green companies. (See also “Power Pedaling with Bamboo Bike,” Foresight SIGNALS, Vol. 1, no. 6.)

Source: Investigación y Desarrollo [in Spanish].

Signals: green technology, innovation, Mexico, plastics, recycling, water

Liability and the Self-Driving Car: Report from Timothy Mack

The auto industry is clearly convinced that the question of autonomous vehicles is “not if, but when.” But the potential impacts on the industry, such as liability issues, are less clear.

Motor Trend analyst Frank Markus notes a number of relatively clear benefits of a working national autonomous-vehicle system, such as reduced accidents, increased mobility for nondrivers, reduced fuel consumption, and more intelligent driving patterns. 

But one of the most interesting questions regards autonomous and driver-controlled vehicles sharing the same roadways: If there are far fewer accidents, there will still be accidents, but probably fewer insurers to cover them. Who is responsible when accidents happen? Who pays? Rather than owners of autonomous vehicles taking out insurance (and paying premiums), would it fall on manufacturers to indemnify their products?

One possibility is public/private special compensation funds to underwrite unintended consequences. Owners of older, non-autonomous cars might be required to financially subsidize the rollout of presumably safer autonomous vehicles and road systems. Of course, manufacturers’ liability remains a toss-up in any court of law.

Timothy Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was adapted from the Foresight SIGNALS Blog. Image credit: Sam Churchill, via Flickr (Creative Commons license).

Signals: AI, autonomous vehicles, insurance, law, transportation

Scholarly Researchers Embrace Skepticism

A journal devoted to exploring the philosophical concept of skepticism has now been included in Scopus, a database of peer-reviewed literature that covers nearly 22,000 titles by 5,000 publishers worldwide. Scopus offers researchers wide access to tools to facilitate tracking, analysis, and visualization of research.

Brill’s International Journal for the Study of Skepticism, edited by Diego E. Machuca (CONICET, Argentina) and Duncan H. Pritchard (University of Edinburgh), publishes articles and organizes symposiums on all aspects of skeptical thought and current problems, including debates on epistemology, metaethics, and the philosophy of religion, among many other topics.

“The journal is fully committed to the highest standards of clarity and rigor, and serves as a forum for debate and exchange of ideas among leading international philosophers and scholars,” according to its mission statement.

Brill is an international academic publisher based in Lieden, the Netherlands, covering Middle East and Islamic Studies, Asian Studies, Classical Studies, History, Biblical and Religious Studies, Language and Linguistics, Biology, International Law, and more.

Details: Brill press release. Follow @Scopus on Twitter.

Signals: academic publishing, philosophy, research, skepticism

Futurists and Foresight in the News

Global Strategic Foresight Community: The World Economic Forum has established a new future-oriented interest group comprising leaders and stakeholders in government, industry, and the foresight profession. Among the participants are The Art of the Long View author Peter Schwartz of Salesforce.com, The Millennium Project founder Jerome C. Glenn, NATO strategic analyst Stephanie Babst, and Julius Gatune of the African Centre for Economic Transformation. The GSFC will “provide a peer network to compare and contrast insights as well as to positively shape future-related industry, regional and global agendas.” Details 

Survey on New Approaches in Foresight: Futurists around the world often develop new methodologies, which may affect outcomes in their foresight work. To better understand these new approaches and their impacts on science, technology, and innovation policy around the world, particularly Southeast Asia, The Future Impacts Consulting firm invites Foresight SIGNALS readers to participate in a brief survey (deadline February 6). Details: Contact Cornelia Daheim, daheim@future-impacts.de 

Technolife 2035: The English-language version of Teknoelämää 2035 by Finnish futurists Elina and Kari Hiltunen is now in progress and should be available soon. Elina’s previous book, Foresight and Innovation: How Companies are Coping with the Future, available in both Finnish and English, offers unique foresight tools that she has developed, such as the TrendWiki, Futures Windows, Strategic Serendipity, and the Futuropoly board game. Details 

Earth Policy Institute to Close: Leading environmental policy expert Lester R. Brown has announced his plans to retire from the think tank he founded in 2001. EPI will close by July this year, and the English-language versions of its principal publications will be housed at Rutgers University, Brown’s alma mater, in the new Lester R. Brown Reading Room. Brown’s career, spanning more than half a century, was devoted to measuring the planet’s resources and assessing its well-being, and issuing urgent warnings on such problems as climate change, overpopulation, and unsustainable consumption of resources. Details 

Frances Segraves, Former Futurist Staff Editor: We sadly report the passing of our friend and former colleague, pioneering newspaper journalist Frances Segraves, on January 14. She was 87. Frances was a staff editor for The Futurist magazine and the World Future Society Bulletin, retiring at the end of 1998. Before joining WFS to work with her longtime friends Ed and Sally Cornish, Frances was one of the first female reporters in the 1950s to cover hard news stories, working for The Frederick News, The Baltimore Sun, Bethlehem Globe-Times, and The Washington Star. She was also an activist in the anti-war and civil rights movements in the 1960s and 1970s. Details 

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

http://www.aaiforesight.com/blog

Feel free to share Foresight SIGNALS with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

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Foresight SIGNALS is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1