By Timothy
C. Mack
It is
beyond the scope of this blog to discuss the globe in 2030 on a
country-by-country basis, but one dramatic shift in employment opportunities is
likely to center on the continent of Africa. Between now and 2030, population growth
rates in Africa will be greater than for any other country, including China (which
has in fact reversed its growth trends through its political one-child
policies). Africa is expected to quadruple in population over the next 90
years, with its greatest economic and political growth likely in North Africa.
Much has
been written about the rise of Asia and the fact that Asia’s share of global
exports in 2030 would total 39 percent of the world total (or double that of
today). And certainly the rise of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India,
China) can almost be certain to continue. But what of the less-discussed possibilities for the powerhouses of 2030?
One
regional development arena seldom considered is the northern portion of the
continent of Africa. This is not a total surprise, as it has been strongly
asserted that developing countries as a whole will account for 57 percent of
global GDP by 2030. Africa is expected to quadruple in population by 2100, with
its greatest economic and political growth likely in North Africa, specifically
in Nigeria, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. To
date, what has brought the highest levels of economic return in these countries
has been privatization, and with China as Africa’s largest investor and trading
partner, this is likely to continue to enhance African gains.
At
present, only 25 percent of Africans are connected to the Internet (50 percent
in cities) but Africa will have the largest working-age population in the world
by 2035. What is critical is education and skill-building
for this massive workforce, so that these new workers will be designing or
inventing new technologies rather than merely repairing and servicing them.
Microsoft’s
two-year-old MySkills4Afrika
program involves an ongoing initiative staffed by on-leave
Microsoft employees (on two- to three-week engagements) who act as technology skills
tutors across Africa. They teach subjects ranging from software development to
marketing, with the goals of both business development and workforce leadership
training. To quote a Microsoft regional director,
“We’re investing in the continent,” aiming to meet the UN development goals for
Africa. This program will continue through 2016.
That continent’s
economic and political growth will be driven by the substantial oil, mineral,
and other resource reserves of sub-Saharan Africa, but it would also need to be
enabled by stable governmental and resource management structures (including
better management of the basics of food, water, and electricity). A 2013 McKinsey
Global Institute in Africa report on the impact of Internet and e-commerce
technologies suggests that Africa is now approaching tipping points in its
financial systems, its education structures, health systems, retail
infrastructure, agriculture, and governmental effectiveness. This means that
some or all of these sectors are on the edge of positive growth of a dramatic
nature.
Sources:
Max Fisher,
“The Amazing, Surprising,
Africa-Driven Demographic Future of the Earth, in 9 charts,” Washington Post (July 16, 2013).
Susan Lund,
James Manyika, and Sree Ramaswamy, “Preparing for a New World of Work,” McKinsey Quarterly (November 2012).
