Foresight SIGNALS: productivity

Showing posts with label productivity. Show all posts

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Signals: GM Tobacco ... Hacking with the Fish ... and more

Vol. 1, No. 15 | June 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> GM Tobacco Could Boost Biorefineries

> Hackathon Seeks Sustainable Fishing Technologies

> Improving Productivity Requires Training Supervisors

> News for the Foresight Community

GM Tobacco Could Boost Biorefineries

Tobacco and genetically modified organisms are often viewed as enemies of human and environmental health. Soon, they may take on more heroic roles, thanks to a plan to use engineered tobacco as “green factories.”

Many countries, such as Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, have set ambitious environmental goals to decarbonize, which means finding substitutes for petroleum and the many industrial products on which they are based. Biorefineries to produce these alternative fuels and products require enzymes to break down biomass into sugars. But the enzymes are currently the most expensive part of the process.

To lower the costs, researchers at Bioforsk in Norway have their eye on tobacco, which has large leaves, is fast growing, and can be harvested several times a year. The researchers aim to insert genes into the tobacco to make the plants produce more enzymes, thus breaking down the cell walls of biomass more effectively.“

Many people are skeptical [of] GMOs, but in this case, we use tobacco plants with the help of biotechnology to produce valuable enzymes for industrial biorefinery,” says lead researcher Jihong Liu Clarke. I believe there are mainly benefits, because we produce cheap enzymes and use the tobacco plant in a health-friendly way.”

Source: Bioforsk, the Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research. Photo: Erling Fløistad

Signals: biorefineries, energy, GMOs, industrial products, tobacco

Hackathon Seeks Sustainable Fishing Technologies

The U.S. State Department is sponsoring a “Fishackathon” to encourage innovative approaches to sustainable fishing. Last year’s inaugural event united 150 volunteer technologists at five U.S. aquariums to build mobile phone apps for fishers in developing countries. This year’s event, June 7 and 8, invites coders, designers, and enthusiasts around the world to #codeforfish.

The efforts will focus on five key problem areas for sustainable fishing: tracking and monitoring fish catches, reporting illegal fishers, registering boats and licensing fishers, identifying fish species and educating others about their market value, and mapping fish stocks to better inform policy makers.

Examples of specific challenges presented to the Fishackathon participants:

Track aquaculture feed ingredients from the original source to the harvested product.
A tool to provide sourcing information and access to local, sustainable seafood.
An app to trace and determine a catch's origin within the Indian Ocean.

“The ‘hacks’ might approach the issues in a number of ways, but all center on finding innovative tools to either gather and synthesize data from the ground up, or disseminate information from the top down,” says Thomas Debass, deputy special representative for global partnerships at the Office of Global Partnerships in the U.S. State Department.

Source: “Five ways technology can help sustainable fishing,” Thomas Debass, Devex #innov8aid, The Development Innovators Blog (May 28, 2015). Details: fishackathon.co

Signals: fishing, innovation, sustainability

Call for papers! If you are working on a foresight analysis project, AAI Foresight would welcome the opportunity to publish your work in the Foresight Reports series. Please contact Cindy Wagner, consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com.

Improving Productivity Requires Training the Supervisors

Improving supervisors’ competence and reducing burdensome regulations are the keys to better productivity, according to a survey of small and medium-sized enterprises in Finland.

The costs of labor, particularly those associated with social security, were named the biggest obstacle to productivity, notes the study published by Lappeenranta University of Technology.

The new survey, a follow-up to 1997 research, revealed key changes in the sources of challenges over the past two decades. Previously, small and medium-sized businesses struggled with lack of resources, but now point to external factors such as legislation and their employees’ trade union activities.

Significantly, the companies surveyed also noted a lack of competence among supervisors as an obstacle for improving productivity. The researchers observe that, as productivity enables enterprises to thin out their workforces, the skills of supervisors take on more importance.

“Companies must see to facilitating the further education of their supervisors,” says senior researcher Sanna Pekkola. “Supervisors must also personally ensure that they have the required competence and maintain it. This requires a willing and active perspective with regard to further education and up-keeping one’s knowledge.”

Source: Lappeenranta University of Technology.

Signals: business, labor, management, productivity, training

News for the Foresight Community

In the News, CBS-San Francisco: Driverless cars are arriving ahead of schedule, and “the transformative impact is going to be vastly greater than we realize,” says Paul Saffo. While such vehicles may be safer for their occupants, they’ll also be massive data-collection machines—as susceptible to hacking as any other device, Saffo notes. Read more: “Why Driverless Cars Both Excite and Terrify Automotive Futurists“ (posted online May 20, 2015)
In the News, Fast Company: Robots and algorithms will replace jobs ranging from military troops to stock traders, says Graeme Codrington (TomorrowToday Global). But in 2025, humans will still be in hot demand for tasks requiring higher-level thinking and judgment, but they’ll be doing so “on demand” as freelancers or contractors. Joe Tankersley (Unique Visions) suggests a few new careers: “tribers” who can build ad hoc teams, urban artisan farmers and advisers, and end-of-life planners. Read more: “The Top Jobs in 10 Years Might Not Be What You Expect“ by Michael Grothaus, Fast Company (posted online May 18, 2015)
New book: The Future of Business edited by Rohit Talwar examines trends that will be affecting businesses over the next 10 to 20 years. More than 50 futurists contributed to the volume, including Maree Conway (“Foresight Infused Strategy”), Gray Scott (“Automation, Digitization, and Simulation”), and Dan Bubley (“Future of the Phone Call”). The book comes out June 11 and is available for preorder (discount coupon code rt1) at Fast Future Publishing.
New book: Lone Wolf Terrorism Prospects and Potential Strategies to Address the Threat, written by Ted Gordon, Yair Sharan, and Elizabeth Florescu, is based on a Real Time Delphi study conducted by The Millennium Project. The study explores the phenomenon of lone wolf attacks, including more than 100 case studies, as well as weapons that might be used in the future, emerging detection technologies, and defense strategies. Details: LoneWolfThreat.com
In Memoriam: Michael Michaelis (1919-2015). Former World Future Society board member Michael Michaelis died peacefully on May 19, less than a month before his 96th birthday. He lived in Chevy Chase, Maryland. After serving on the Advisory Council that led to the formation of the World Future Society, Michaelis was invited to become a founding board member in recognition of his vital connections with a vast array of thinkers and leaders in government, business, and academia. He also contributed two inspiring articles to The Futurist magazine during the organization’s formative years: “Building the World We Want” (June 1968) and “The Management of Change” (February 1971). A memorial is planned for fall 2015. Details: Washington Post, Legacy.com.

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Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Signals: Bamboo Bike... Charitable Incentives... Futurists At Work... and more

Vol. 1, No. 6 | January 15, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight SIGNALS

> Power Pedaling with Bamboo Bike

> Philanthropy and Productivity

> Why Some Fossil Fuels Need to Stay in the Ground

> Book Note: Toward a Freakier Mind-Set

> Futurists at Work, Foresight in the News

Power Pedaling with Bamboo Bike

A bamboo bicycle under development in Mexico promises to be tougher, lighter, and less prone to heat, and thus an innovative way to replace metal parts with natural materials. But wait, there’s more: The bamboo bike will also generate energy.

Pedaling a bike creates kinetic energy, so the goal of the Bambootec consortium is to capture that energy through circuits in the rims and run it to converters and regulators in the system’s core under the seat. The energy is converted to electricity—about 10 volts—which can recharge mobile devices and a smartphone battery, and power a navigation dashboard on the handlebars, connected via Bluetooth.

The team’s goals now are to accelerate the charging process and to develop the machinery to scale the bamboo bike up for mass production. Bambootec, located in Yucatán, is a participant in Cleantech Challenge Mexico, a contest that promotes the development of green enterprises.

Source: Investigación y Desarrollo [in Spanish].

Signals: appropriate technology, bicycles, green energy, Mexico, renewable resources, sustainability, transportation

Philanthropy and Productivity

Encouraging workers to give at the office may turn out to be a good way to boost their productivity. A study at Britain’s University of Southampton found that, when subjects could choose the amount of performance-based pay they would share with charity, their performance increased considerably.

“A lot of studies have shown how financial incentives, like bonuses and stock options, can improve performance,” said the study’s lead author, University of Southampton economist Mirco Tonin, in a press statement. “But our results provide empirical support for the growing recognition that some workers are also motivated by advancing social causes through their efforts.”

While financial incentives like bonuses are still more effective at motivating workers, the difference is not as wide as many believe, suggests the study, to be published in Management Science. Tonin concludes that “firms willing to introduce corporate giving programs may want to consider giving employees the opportunity to ‘opt in.’”

Reference: “Corporate Philanthropy and Productivity: Evidence from an Online Real Effort Experiment,” Mirco Tonin and Michael Vlassopoulos, Management Science, DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.1985

Signals: business, philanthropy, productivity

Why Some Fossil Fuels Need to Stay in the Ground

A large portion of the world’s untapped coal, oil, and natural gas needs to stay in the ground through 2050 in order to keep global warming from exceeding the internationally agreed limit of 2°C, warns a new study from University College London’s Institute for Sustainable Resources.

The study, published in the journal Nature, recommends that the Middle East leave 65% of its gas in the ground, and that 80% of the coal in China, Russia, and the United States remain undisturbed through the next 35 years, along with 260 billion barrels of petroleum reserves—the equivalent of all of Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves.

How do we avoid either an economic catastrophe or an environmental one? Energy companies (and their investors) should divert the search for more fossil fuels to more alternatives, according to the study’s co-author, environmental policy professor Paul Ekins.

“The greater global attention to climate policy … means that fossil fuel companies are becoming increasingly risky for investors in terms of the delivery of long-term returns,”says Ekins. “I would expect prudent investors in energy to shift increasingly towards low-carbon energy sources.”

Reference: C. McGlade and P. Ekins, “The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2°C,” Nature (January 7, 2015). DOI: 10.1038/nature14016

Signals: climate change, energy, fossil fuels, global warming, low-carbon fuels

Book Note: Toward a Freakier Mind-Set

Finding and interpreting signals or outliers in the landscape is part of the job for foresight professionals. It requires us to think differently about what we see, and even about what we seek, which may be why many of us self-identify as geeks or freaks.

In Think Like a Freak (Morrow, 2014), University of Chicago economist Steven D. Levitt and journalist Stephen J. Dubner share techniques for training your mind to think differently, a prerequisite for foresight.

The process is both rewarding and humbling. Why “humbling”? Because you’ll need to learn to say “I don’t know” more often (faking it could have higher social consequences), to think about problems as a child would (ask naïve questions; break things into smaller bits), and to permit yourself to quit when your efforts are futile: Let it go.

Think Like a Freak is well-populated with case studies for freaky thinking in business, which should prove of value to futurists and foresight professionals working with business trends and clients.

Excerpted from Foresight SIGNALS Blog. Read the review. More information.

Signals: business, creative thinking, Freakonomics, futurist methodologies, strategies, trends

Futurists at Work, Foresight in the News

Islam, Islamism, and Islamaphobia: “We have to liberate ourselves from the phobia of being accused of Islamaphobia,” strategic futurist Tsvi Bisk told Israeli television i24 News, responding to a series of lone-wolf terror attacks in France in December. The war, he said, is not on terrorism, which he described as a strategy (like a flanking maneuver), nor on Islam, but rather on Islamism—“a totalitarian ideology whose aim is to conquer the world.” However, he continued, “that does not mean one iota that you tolerate discrimination against law-abiding Muslims. In other words, it’s a two-pronged attack. You respect and integrate law-abiding Muslims and you uncompromisingly fight against radical Islamism. I don’t see why that’s such a crazy thing to think about.” Watch the interview. Contact Tsvi Bisk, Center for Strategic Futurist Thinking.

Futurist in Government: Bulgarian futures researcher and strategic planner Mariana Todorova is now a Member of Parliament, joining the National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria in November 2014. She previously served as an adviser to the president (2008-2014) and now has joined the Parliament’s committees for Education and Science and for Labor, Social, and Demographic Policy. Formerly an assistant professor at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, she has worked toward developing a new methodology of scientific forecasting that combines counterfactual analysis and scenario building. Details.

Redrawing the Global Language Map: A new, omnidisciplinary look at the present state and future of language is being planned by University of Kentucky geographer Stanley D. Brunn. The multivolume collection, tentatively titled The Changing World Language Map, proposes to cover the intersection of language and geography, with chapters contributed by scholars from all over the world and from different backgrounds. Scholars interested in contributing should contact Dr. Brunn at Brunn@uky.edu

Signal of the Month: Trees and Housing. In his monthly e-newsletter, financial adviser and futurist James Lee offers several wise tips for your 2015 financial resolutions; number 7 is saving for a new home. If your goal is to move to a better, safer neighborhood, Lee recommends going to Google Maps and looking for neighborhoods with more trees. “This is simple, but it works!” he writes in his January 9 newsletter for StratFi, The Forward View. Sign up for the free monthly e-newsletter at StratFi.

Send us your signals! News about your work or other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.