Vol. 1, No. 11 | April
1, 2015 | AAI Foresight
Inside Foresight Signals
> Adaptation and Its Consequences
> From Natural Gas to Biogas
> Contingency Exercises Urged for Power Companies
> Nanotech and Cancer: Report from Timothy C. Mack
> News for the Foresight Community
Adaptation and Its Consequences
The efforts that societies put into adapting to climate
change may in themselves put even more pressure on the environment, warns a
study led by Carlo Fezzi of the
University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences.
The researchers used computer models based on data since the
1970s to predict how climate change would alter agricultural practices in
Britain, and how those changes would in turn affect river water quality. They
found that, though moderate increases in temperature could boost agricultural
productivity and allow for more livestock in the eastern uplands and midlands,
the increased intensity in farming and herding would generate more runoff of
nitrates and phosphates in rivers and streams.
Similarly, other industries that are forced to adapt to
climate change, such as energy, forestry, fisheries, and even health services,
will also have to beware of the “knock on” effects of adaptation, the
researchers warn.
“We need to take into account not only the direct impact of
climate change, but also how people will respond to such change—the impact of
adaptation,” Fezzi said in a press statement. “Climate change is a long-term
process and science allows us to anticipate its impact on both the environment
and society. This should encourage the development of forward-looking policies.”
Source: University of East Anglia. Reference: Carlo Fezzi et al., “The
environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality,”
Nature Climate Change (March 2015),
pp. 255-260. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2525.
Image: Graeme Law, via Flickr
(Creative Commons license).
Signals: adaptation,
agriculture, climate change
From Natural Gas to Biogas
Pilgrim’s, a chicken-processing plant in Mexico, has been able
to purify fats, waste, and other residues to produce a biogas capable of
replacing natural gas as its energy source. And Xaquixe, a pottery and glass-art
maker, has generated biogas from pig and cow manure, providing energy for its operations.
The two companies were participants in pilot projects to
demonstrate techniques developed by Mexico’s Center for Research and
Technological Development in Electrochemistry (CIDETEQ), in partnership with specialists
from the University of Brandenburg in Germany.
The biogas generated is a mixture of methane, carbon
dioxide, nitrogen, and water vapor, as well as potentially harmful compounds
like hydrogen sulfide. As such, the biogas must be properly assessed and
treated before it can be used.
Distillers of mescal, a liquor similar to tequila, may also benefit
from the process, using biogas to replace firewood.
Details (in Spanish): Investigación
y Desarrollo.
Signals: bioprocessing,
energy, recycling
Contingency Exercises Urged for Power Companies
A hacking attack on a power distribution company isn’t just
the IT department’s problem, and in a crisis, everyone needs to be prepared,
warn Maria Line and Nils Brede Moe of the research
consortium SINTEF.
In Norway, the power industry has been too “laid back,”
despite experiencing the country’s first attack in the summer of 2014. Line and
Moe observed contingency exercises with three power-distribution companies and
found them largely unprepared for a variety of scenarios.
“One of the companies we talked to had an agreement simply
to call and rely on its supplier if a crisis occurred,” Line said in a press
statement. “And even then, the supplier didn't take part in the exercise.”
Based on their observations, Line and Moe recommend that as
many employees as possible participate in contingency exercises, especially
including upper management who would be the key decision makers if the call
must be made to shut down a plant.
Frequent scenario exercises are also important, but the same
exercises should not be repeated; rather, new contingencies must continually be
imagined and prepared for, the researchers conclude.
Signals: emergency
management, hackers, IT, power distribution, scenario planning, utilities
Nanotech and Cancer: Report from Timothy C. Mack
One of the most encouraging trends in medicine in recent
years is the growth of systemic approaches to problem solving, such as in improving
chemotherapy delivery in cancer treatment.
Historically, the challenge has been to target drugs
accurately at cancer cells; the powerful drugs may often cause damage to
surrounding healthy tissue. The body may also treat these medical interventions
as intruders, attacking and disabling them through human immune mechanisms.
Recently, researchers
have used nanotech to create protective vehicles and delivery mechanisms that
now appear to overcome these obstacles. After delivering drugs to their
targets, these vehicles dissolve in the high-acid cores of cancer tumors. As is
often the case in new and converging technological developments, developments such
as this are likely to further accelerate advances in related technology
solutions. Read more.
Timothy C. Mack
is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report is excerpted from the
Foresight Signals blog. Image: Rhoda
Baer, National Cancer Institute.
Signals: cancer, medicine,
nanotechnology
News for the Foresight Community
• Honors: Young Futurists of 2015. Influential media company The Root has named
25 young African Americans to its 2015 Young Futurists list honoring social activism and academic
and entrepreneurial achievements of students ages 16 to 22. Among this year’s
honorees is Allyson Carpenter, 18, of Howard University, who became the
youngest elected official in Washington, D.C. The
Root covers news, opinion, and culture from an African American
perspective.
• Petition: Open Letter on AI. The Boston-based
Future of Life Institute has posted an open letter on research priorities for
artificial intelligence, aiming to ensure “that increasingly capable AI systems
are robust and beneficial.” Among the dozens of signatories to the letter are
theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking,
SpaceX and Tesla Motors founder Elon
Musk, Google research director Peter
Norvig, philosophy professor Nick
Bostrom, io9 contributing editor George
Dvorsky, and science-fiction author David
Brin. Details: Future of Life. Download PDF: Research
Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence.
• Signal of the Month:
DEAL. The jobs outlook in the United States faces a new DEAL: the combined
forces of Demographics, Education, Automation, and Longevity (The Gordon Report, March 2015). Baby boomers
will be living longer, and they’ll need to be replaced in the workforce. If
they wish to continue working, they’ll need appropriate training, as automation
takes over many low-skill and middle-skill jobs. Signal courtesy of Edward E. Gordon, president of Imperial
Consulting Corporation.
Send us your signals!
News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner,
consulting editor.
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© 2015 AAI Foresight
Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI
Foresight
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