Foresight SIGNALS: cybercrime

Showing posts with label cybercrime. Show all posts

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Signals: "We Are Technology" ... The Futurist Leader ... Life in 2050 ... and more

Vol. 1, No. 18 | July 21, 2015 | AAI Foresight

News for the Foresight Community:

> Podcast: Futuristic Now

> New Book: The Futurist Leader

> Essay Contest: Life in the Year 2050

> In the News: Patrick Tucker on C-Span

> Foresight Report: IT Revolution, Aerospace, and Society

> Mack Report: Personal Responsibility for the Future

Podcast: Futuristic Now

Techno-philosopher Gray Scott, editorial director of the Serious Wonder online futurist journal, has launched a new podcast series titled Futuristic Now. In the weekly series, he will offer his analysis and reflections about the implications of such developments as replicants, cyborgs, and sexbots.

In the first episode, “We Are Technology,” Scott discusses the digital evolution of humanity. “To understand the future of technology, we need to begin with one fundamental truth: Technology is natural,” he says. But “technology has yet to fully reveal itself to us.”

Technology will keep evolving until it becomes conscious, he says. “It may take 50 years or a thousand years, but it will happen. And when it does, we will stand face to face with our digital reflection.”

Listen: Futuristic Now, episode one

Signals: artificial intelligence, cyborgs, evolution, technology, transhumanism

New Book: The Futurist Leader

The Association for Talent Development has published Kedge principal and managing director Yvette Montero Salvatico’s new book, The Futurist Leader (June 2015, $24.95 paperback or PDF), as part of its “TD at Work” series.

To master the challenges of an ever-shifting business landscape, leaders must embrace strategic foresight, which will enable them to recognize emerging patterns before they become threats—or opportunities. The workbook provides guidance and a framework that will help organizations and their leaders put strategic foresight into practice.

Details: ATD Publications

Signals: business, leadership, strategic foresight

Essay Contest: Life in the Year 2050

What will daily life be like 35 years from now? What will you wear, where will you live, where will you go on vacation, and how will you get there?

The 2050 Club is seeking creative, forward-looking essays (deadline July 31), offering a grand prize of $250 and “Cool Kids” prizes of $100 for entrants under age 16 (submitted by their parents).

Details, Vote on submissions: 2050 Club on Facebook

Signals: creativity, futurism, youth, visions

In the News: Patrick Tucker on C-Span

The nearly simultaneous cyber failures at United Airlines and the New York Stock Exchange earlier this month, along with news of a major hack at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, brought Defense One’s technology editor Patrick Tucker to the studios of C-Span’s Washington Journal on July 12.

While the UA and NYSE failures were unintentional technological glitches and quickly resolved, the OPM hack is gravely concerning, affecting as many as 21.5 million people. The hackers targeted the information provided by individuals who had gone through or applied for security clearance, which means that any information that was given about, for instance, personal contacts in other countries, is now in the hands of hackers. This makes U.S. intelligence assets (i.e., agents) vulnerable, Tucker pointed out.

All three of these failures were predictable, Tucker said. The problems result from the massive demands modern society now makes on technologies, such as imposing complex new software on top of legacy systems that cannot accommodate it.

While the OPM hack “was preventable,” Tucker said, “that’s the thing that hindsight gives us—the knowledge that something was preventable.” We should have been expecting such a sophisticated malware attack, and we should have been protecting ourselves from it. “You have to assume that data that has been collected is going to get out.”

View: Patrick Tucker on U.S. cyber threats, Washington Journal (July 12, 2015)

Signals: complexity, cybercrime, government, security, software, technology

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Calling All Conference Goers!

Are you attending Worldfuture 2015 this week in San Francisco? Please send us your reports and photos from the event!

We also want to hear about any other conferences, exhibitions, or experiences that you’d like to share with the wider foresight community.

Contact: Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com, or Tim Mack, managing principal, at tcmack333@gmail.com

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Foresight Report: IT Revolution, Aerospace, and Society

AAI Foresight is pleased to announce the publication of “Emerging Impacts of the IT Revolution upon Technology, Aerospace, and Society: Creating Problems and Enabling Solutions” by Dennis M. Bushnell, chief scientist at NASA Langley Research Center.

In the report, the third in AAI Foresight’s series of Foresight Reports, Bushnell reflects on the multiplying effects of converging technological revolutions, which the information technology revolution in particular has enabled. As a result, the world is avowedly technologically “flat.”

These technologies offer the promise of accelerating our exploration and development off planet, including Mars. And while they force society to confront the challenges of technological unemployment, developments such as “tele-everything” and 3-D printing manufacturing will also enhance individual independence, he says.

Download: “IT Revolution, Aerospace, and Society” by Dennis M. Bushnell, Foresight Report (Summer 2015), PDF.

Signals: communications, computing, information technology, Mars, space, 3-D printing

Report from Tim Mack: Personal Responsibility for the Future

In his latest blog for AAI Foresight, managing principal Tim Mack reflects on the changing nature of the questions he’s being asked about the future. In describing audience reaction to a speech he prepared shortly before retiring as president of the World Future Society, he writes:

“Although a few questions did relate to the content of my presentation, the majority of audience inquiries keyed off of the speaker introduction, which mentioned that I was retiring in a few months to an island in Puget Sound, north of Seattle. The myriad of questions all had an “end times” feel to them, including how I was preparing for catastrophic weather, resource shortfalls, civil unrest, and so on.”

Wondering whether such questions stem from disillusionment with public problem solving—and acceptance of more personal responsibility for larger issues—Mack invites readers to join him in a dialogue about whether “concern about the future [is] growing while confidence in our ability to affect its course declines.”

Read “TakingPersonal Responsibility for Larger Issues” by Tim Mack, Foresight Signals Blog, posted July 20, 2015.

Signals: catastrophe planning, dialogue, public policy, responsibility, values

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

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Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

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Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

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Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

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Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Signals: Cybermurder... City Night Lights... 24th Century Medicine... and more

Vol. 1, No. 5 | January 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight SIGNALS

> Has the First Cybermurder Already Happened?

> Satellites Reveal a Global Night-Light Gap

> Boldly Forecasting Emergency Medicine in the 24th Century

> Rooftop Resources Project: Report from Timothy Mack

> Futurists at Work, Foresight in the News

Has the First Cybermurder Already Happened?

The recent spate of attacks ranging from corporate theft to denial of service for gamers has brought new attention to cyberwarfare and cybercrime. The potential for even online murder was one of the forecasts by the Internet Organized Crime Threat Assessment (iOCTA) report. But it’s possible that a cybermurder has already taken place, observes foresight analyst Richard Yonck in his recent post on the Scientific American blog.

“When hackers cause widespread power outages as they may have done in Brazil nearly a decade ago,” Yonck writes, “isn’t it likely that someone among the millions affected will die due to a lack of electricity? True, such deaths wouldn’t have been specifically targeted, but to any victims and their families that distinction is of little comfort.”

FBI futurist Marc Goodman, author of the forthcoming Future Crimes, adds that even six years ago, “terrorists were using search engines, like Google, to determine who shall live and who shall die,” as he recently noted on Tim Ferriss’s podcast. And technologies that can do more damage are now in more hands: 3-D printers can produce military weapons and bioterrorists can download the recipes for diseases from the Internet.

Indeed, the biggest potential threat from cybercrime is how easy it is becoming for more people to commit it, Yonck argues. We should therefore “give greater consideration to the negative and unanticipated consequences of our new technologies as early in their development as we possibly can, in order to better address their vulnerabilities and shortcomings,” he advises.

And Goodman reminds us that we can do more to protect ourselves from cybercrimes by using common sense: For instance, don’t open links or attachments in e-mails from unknown sources, keep your security software up to date, don’t use the same user names and passwords for all your accounts, and invest in a subscription to a virtual private network if you frequently use public Wi-Fi.

Sources: “Facing Up to Online Murder and Other Cybercrimes” by Richard Yonck, Scientific American Blog (December 3, 2014). “Marc Goodman, FBI Futurist, on High-Tech Crime and How to Protect Yourself,” The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast, December 9, 2014).

Image credits: Surian Soosay (Internet riot police), Tim Reckmann (Anonymous), via Flickr, Creative Commons. Collage by C. G. Wagner for AAI Foresight SIGNALS.

Signals: bioterrorism, cybercrime, hackers, security

Satellites Reveal a Global Night-Light Gap

Not only are American cities brighter at night than German cities are, but the night-light gap actually increases with city size: Larger U.S. cities emit more nighttime light per capita than smaller cities do, while larger German cities emit less.

These findings are the product of new high-resolution night imaging made possible by the European Space Agency’s NightPod instrument, deployed in 2012. Work conducted by the Remote Sensing section of the German Research Center for Geosciences also reveals significant differences in the world’s light sources: Airports and harbors generate most of the night light in megacities of the developing world, while sports stadiums and leisure centers light up the night in wealthier cities of Europe.

The brighter lights of bigger U.S. cities may be due to differences in the types of lamps used, in the architectural features of the cities, or in the amount of trees or other foliage available to block light traveling upward.

The findings also offer data on electricity use and suggest ways to improve lighting efficiency in the world’s cities: Installation of efficient LED lamps, for instance, could reduce future consumption—and minimize light pollution by directing less light upward into the night sky.

Source: GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, Helmholtz Center, Postsdam.

Reference: C.C.M. Kyba, S. Garz, H. Kuechly, A. Sánchez de Miguel, J. Zamorano, F. Hölker (2015). “High-resolution imagery of Earth at Night: new sources, opportunities, and challenges.” Remote Sensing, 2015, 7(1), 1-23; doi:10.3390/rs70100001

Signals: astronomy, cities, efficiency, energy, imaging

Boldly Forecasting Emergency Medicine in the 24th Century

Humans will be living longer and healthier lives three centuries from now—at least until we’re called into battle against Klingons.

The 50-year-old Star Trek science-fiction franchise has inspired numerous innovations, from fax machines to flat-screen monitors. Now, a team of scholars in Vienna is speculating on how emergency medicine may evolve by analyzing more than 500 episodes from the various Star Trek series.

We’ll still die from cardiac arrests in the future, according to study leader David Hörburger of MedUni Vienna, but the causes will be more related to traumatic events, such as exposure to “energy weapons” and poisoning, rather than to general medical problems, such as arrhythmias.

The study also offers guidance for treatment of cardiac arrests; today, patients have a better chance of survival if they are already in the hospital, while those home alone have the worst survival rates. By contrast, cardiac arrest patients in Star Trek’s twenty-fourth century benefit from teleportation and the hand-held diagnostic “tricorder” device—fictional inventions that are already inspiring today’s medical innovators.

Source: Medical University of Vienna

Reference: D. Hörburger, J. Haslinger, H. Bickel, N. Graf, A. Schober, C. Testori, C. Weiser, F. Sterz, M. Haugk. (2014). “Where no guideline has gone before: Retrospective analysis of resuscitation in the 24th century.” Resuscitation (December: Volume 85, Issue 12, Pages 1790–1794) dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resuscitation.2014.10.008.

Signals: health, medicine, science fiction, Star Trek

Rooftop Resources Project: Report from Timothy Mack

The practical realities of building sustainable networks are coming to life in Oakland, California, under the stewardship of a nonprofit group called Bay Localize as part of its Rooftop Resources Project.

Working with PlaceWorks, a Berkeley design and planning consultancy, Bay Localize is utilizing GIS tools to conduct a search for Green Roof candidates that might host hydroponic gardens, photovoltaic panels, and rainwater-collection systems. Some roofs could be viable for more than one of these uses, although slanted roofs have not worked well for garden sites. (Energy generation requires the slant to be in the right direction.)

The project team then collects a deeper layer of data on the ranges of building use and construction, roof access and materials, structural integrity, and surrounding room for ground-level water-collection tanks. This data can be collected and collated using hand-held devices and then used to calculate gallons of water, kilowatts of electricity, and pounds of vegetables potentially produced by any one rooftop. Read more.

Timothy Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was excerpted from Foresight SIGNALS Blog. Image courtesy of Bay Localize.

Signals: collaboration, energy, gardens, green buildings, hydroponics, photovoltaics, sustainability, urban planning, water

Futurists at Work, Foresight in the News

Sci-Fi Author Named Chief Futurist: Magic Leap Inc. has tapped science-fiction author Neal Stephenson, who coined the concept of the “metaverse,” to help develop the technologies behind the company’s products, largely related to games and how users experience artificial worlds. “Neal is a true visionary and the very first to conceptualize a social, virtual world in a coherent way,” said Magic Leap founder, president, and CEO Rony Abovitz in a press release. Stephenson responded wryly on the company’s blog: “‘Chief Futurist’ runs the risk of being a disembodied brain on a stick. I took the job on the understanding that I would have the opportunity to get a few things done.”

The Futurist Portfolio: South African investment banker Murray Legg believes U.S. companies will continue their momentum in 2015, with technology, health care, and industry delivering “great returns, likely into the low double digits,” he writes on his blog. His Futurist Portfolio comprises companies led by visionaries, “companies that are looking into the future and bringing solutions to market that address the challenges the middle of the bell curve aren’t entirely aware of as yet.” His picks include Naspers, Novo Nordisk, Google, Apple, Alibaba, Tesla, and Airbus. Read: “2015—My Stock Portfolio View,” Murray’s Blog (December 6, 2014).

A Futurist for the Birds? Environmental scientist Jessica Zelt’s work enlisting citizen scientists to produce a database of bird sightings is featured in Audubon magazine. Begun in 2008, the project to digitize the North American Bird Phenology Program now involves more than 2,500 volunteers transcribing handwritten reports as much as 100 years old. Unlocking this historic data promises to help scientists understand the effects of climate change on bird migration. Read: “Three Generations of Citizen Science: The Futurist” by Rachel Nuwer, Audubon (November-December 2014).

Send us your signals and stories! News about your work or other leads, tips, reviews, and ideas are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.