Signals: Rising China... Unfit Children... Sesame Futures... and more

Vol. 1, No. 17 | July 7, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals: 

> The Challenges of a Rising China
> Children’s Fitness Levels Are Falling Fast
> Earthquake Prediction in Developing Countries
> Sesame: The Seed of the Future?

The Challenges of a Rising China

China is rising as a global economic power, but “it’s also a developing country with a postcolonial chip on its shoulder,” Thomas J. Christensen, director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, said at a June 25 Brookings Institution forum for his new book, The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power.

Noting that China’s military has grown faster than its economy, Christensen said security has become a major challenge that the U.S. diplomatic corps is not particularly well prepared to deal with. China’s military power is not yet a match for the United States, but it is potentially capable of creating disruptions for many U.S. allies and strategic partners in China’s neighborhood.

Global problems cannot be solved without China’s participation, said Christensen, who was deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs from 2006 to 2008. As a developing country (with approximately the same per capita GDP as Ecuador), China has no social safety net of its own and is neither prepared nor motivated to assist places like Greece.

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, “China is stronger overseas and weaker, less secure, at home,” Christensen said. “That changes how they behave.” Influencing China’s choices and actions on global issues, such as climate change or North Korea’s nuclear proliferation, will require a better understanding of its mind-set.

“Accept the Chinese’ strong nationalism, and praise China’s efforts in order to encourage its cooperation,” Christensen said. He recommended that the United States invite China to solve problems like North Korea; if they don’t step up, then turn to others. “That gets their attention and shows them it’s in their interest.”

Audio and transcript: Brookings Institution Events

Reference: The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power by Thomas J. Christensen, W.W. Norton, 2015, $27.95.

Signals: Asia, China, diplomacy, global problems

Children’s Fitness Levels Are Falling Fast

The least-fit kid 15 years ago could be among the fittest kids today, according to University of Essex researcher Gavin Sandercock. While obesity rates are down, as measured by body mass index (BMI), children ages 10–11 today are slower, weaker, and have less stamina than their counterparts in 1998.

Less than 5 percent of the 300 schoolchildren participating in the study were rated as obese, which suggested that today’s slimmer cohorts could perform better on fitness tests. This was not the case, Sandercock reports.

“Simply put, if you weigh less it is easier to run and turn so you should do better on our test,” Sandercock stated in a press release. “But despite finding a lower average BMI in the children measured in 2014 than in 2008 we found the children still couldn’t run as fast, showing they had even lower cardiorespiratory fitness.”

Like obesity, this lack of physical fitness is a symptom of inactivity, according to Sandercock. He recommends new measures that go beyond BMI indicators to assess children’s “physical literacy,” including such fundamental movement skills such as running, hopping, throwing, catching, and jumping.

Source: University of Essex

Signals: children, health, obesity

Earthquake Prediction in Developing Countries

Geological evidence from the past could provide an affordable method of predicting earthquakes in developing countries without access to extensive seismic monitoring.

Researchers at Australia’s James Cook University found evidence of land deformation and fluidization (quicksand-like displacement) in the ground at the site of a large Tanzanian earthquake 25,000 years ago. The amount of upward displacement was unprecedented in a continental setting, according to lead researcher Hannah Hilbert-Wolf.

“This could be a major concern for the growing urban population of East Africa, which has similar tectonic settings and surface conditions,” she said in a press statement.

Insights from the rock record on the timing and frequency of past geological events could enable researchers to predict how the ground will behave in future seismic events.

“We can now use this to evaluate how the ground would deform in a modern earthquake,” according to supervising researcher Eric Roberts. “This is important because the approach is inexpensive and can be used to model how structures might be affected by future events, providing a valuable tool in hazard assessment.”

As human populations grow, such powerful shakeups as the 1910 African earthquake will affect far more lives. Tanzania’s population in 1910 was 7.5 million, but by 2050 it is predicted to reach 130 million people living primarily in urban settings more susceptible to damage.

Source: James Cook University

Reference: “Giant Seismites and Megablock Uplift in the East African Rift: Evidence for Late Pleistocene Large Magnitude Earthquakes” by Hannah Louise Hilbert-Wolf and Eric M. Roberts, PLOS ONE (June 4, 2015), DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0129051

Signals: Africa, earthquakes, geology, hazard assessment

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Special Announcement

WorldFuture 2015, the annual conference of the World Future Society, will be held at the Hilton San Francisco Union Square on July 24-26, with an array of preconference Master Classes available July 23 and 24 and a postconference “Professional’s Toolkit” on July 25.

The conference theme this year is “Making the Future,” with tracks on Technology and Innovation, the Business of Foresight, Global Issues, Practicum, and Millennial/Youth Activities.

Among the speakers scheduled are Karl Albrecht, Joel Barker, David Bengston, Clem Bezold, Peter Bishop, Tsvi Bisk, Maree Conway, Jose Cordeiro, Cornelia Daheim, Jim Dator, Mike Dockry, Thomas Frey, Jerome C. Glenn, Ted Gordon, Linda Groff, Andrew Hines, James Lee, Thomas Lombardo, Michael Marien, Wendy McGuinness, Concepción Olavarrieta, Joe Pelton, Yvette Montero Salvatico, Wendy Schultz, Art Shostak, Rick Smyre, David Pearce Snyder, Paul Tinari, Mariana Todorova, Carrie Vanston, Richard Yonck, and Michael Zey.

WorldFuture 2015 is an opportunity to meet old friends and build new partnerships as you make tomorrow’s world today.

Details: World Future 2015

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Sesame: The Seed of the Future?

From tahini and falafel in the Middle East to hamburger buns and bagels in New York, sesame seeds are popular around the world. The seeds are rich in protein, minerals, and healthy oils, but the crop is difficult to harvest. Yields are low, with a high percentage of seeds unsuitable for consumption.

To boost their agricultural viability, researcher Zvi Peleg of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem screened more than 100,000 sesame seed variants. He developed a new cultivar that promises higher yields and better suitability for sustainable agriculture when used in rotation with other cereal crops.

Global sesame production is 4.4 million tons a year, but the new seed could contribute to a projected 5 to 10 percent growth value annually, Peleg suggests.

“The increase in global demand for sesame products as a health food has turned this highly domestic consumption item into an important export commodity for Israel,” Peleg said in a press statement.

Source: Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Signals: agriculture, food, innovation, sustainable farming

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Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome, as is feedback on Foresight Signals. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

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Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community.

__________

© 2015 AAI Foresight

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Signals: Cybermurder... City Night Lights... 24th Century Medicine... and more

Vol. 1, No. 5 | January 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight SIGNALS

> Has the First Cybermurder Already Happened?

> Satellites Reveal a Global Night-Light Gap

> Boldly Forecasting Emergency Medicine in the 24th Century

> Rooftop Resources Project: Report from Timothy Mack

> Futurists at Work, Foresight in the News

Has the First Cybermurder Already Happened?

The recent spate of attacks ranging from corporate theft to denial of service for gamers has brought new attention to cyberwarfare and cybercrime. The potential for even online murder was one of the forecasts by the Internet Organized Crime Threat Assessment (iOCTA) report. But it’s possible that a cybermurder has already taken place, observes foresight analyst Richard Yonck in his recent post on the Scientific American blog. 

“When hackers cause widespread power outages as they may have done in Brazil nearly a decade ago,” Yonck writes, “isn’t it likely that someone among the millions affected will die due to a lack of electricity? True, such deaths wouldn’t have been specifically targeted, but to any victims and their families that distinction is of little comfort.”

FBI futurist Marc Goodman, author of the forthcoming Future Crimes, adds that even six years ago, “terrorists were using search engines, like Google, to determine who shall live and who shall die,” as he recently noted on Tim Ferriss’s podcast. And technologies that can do more damage are now in more hands: 3-D printers can produce military weapons and bioterrorists can download the recipes for diseases from the Internet.

Indeed, the biggest potential threat from cybercrime is how easy it is becoming for more people to commit it, Yonck argues. We should therefore “give greater consideration to the negative and unanticipated consequences of our new technologies as early in their development as we possibly can, in order to better address their vulnerabilities and shortcomings,” he advises.

And Goodman reminds us that we can do more to protect ourselves from cybercrimes by using common sense: For instance, don’t open links or attachments in e-mails from unknown sources, keep your security software up to date, don’t use the same user names and passwords for all your accounts, and invest in a subscription to a virtual private network if you frequently use public Wi-Fi.

Sources: “Facing Up to Online Murder and Other Cybercrimes” by Richard Yonck, Scientific American Blog (December 3, 2014). “Marc Goodman, FBI Futurist, on High-Tech Crime and How to Protect Yourself,” The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast, December 9, 2014).

Image credits: Surian Soosay (Internet riot police), Tim Reckmann (Anonymous), via Flickr, Creative Commons. Collage by C. G. Wagner for AAI Foresight SIGNALS.

Signals: bioterrorism, cybercrime, hackers, security

Satellites Reveal a Global Night-Light Gap

Not only are American cities brighter at night than German cities are, but the night-light gap actually increases with city size: Larger U.S. cities emit more nighttime light per capita than smaller cities do, while larger German cities emit less.

These findings are the product of new high-resolution night imaging made possible by the European Space Agency’s NightPod instrument, deployed in 2012. Work conducted by the Remote Sensing section of the German Research Center for Geosciences also reveals significant differences in the world’s light sources: Airports and harbors generate most of the night light in megacities of the developing world, while sports stadiums and leisure centers light up the night in wealthier cities of Europe.

The brighter lights of bigger U.S. cities may be due to differences in the types of lamps used, in the architectural features of the cities, or in the amount of trees or other foliage available to block light traveling upward.

The findings also offer data on electricity use and suggest ways to improve lighting efficiency in the world’s cities: Installation of efficient LED lamps, for instance, could reduce future consumption—and minimize light pollution by directing less light upward into the night sky.

Source: GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, Helmholtz Center, Postsdam.

Reference:  C.C.M. Kyba, S. Garz, H. Kuechly, A. Sánchez de Miguel, J. Zamorano, F. Hölker (2015). “High-resolution imagery of Earth at Night: new sources, opportunities, and challenges.” Remote Sensing, 2015, 7(1), 1-23; doi:10.3390/rs70100001

Signals: astronomy, cities, efficiency, energy, imaging

Boldly Forecasting Emergency Medicine in the 24th Century

Humans will be living longer and healthier lives three centuries from now—at least until we’re called into battle against Klingons.

The 50-year-old Star Trek science-fiction franchise has inspired numerous innovations, from fax machines to flat-screen monitors. Now, a team of scholars in Vienna is speculating on how emergency medicine may evolve by analyzing more than 500 episodes from the various Star Trek series.

We’ll still die from cardiac arrests in the future, according to study leader David Hörburger of MedUni Vienna, but the causes will be more related to traumatic events, such as exposure to “energy weapons” and poisoning, rather than to general medical problems, such as arrhythmias.

The study also offers guidance for treatment of cardiac arrests; today, patients have a better chance of survival if they are already in the hospital, while those home alone have the worst survival rates. By contrast, cardiac arrest patients in Star Trek’s twenty-fourth century benefit from teleportation and the hand-held diagnostic “tricorder” device—fictional inventions that are already inspiring today’s medical innovators.

Source: Medical University of Vienna

Reference: D. Hörburger, J. Haslinger, H. Bickel, N. Graf, A. Schober, C. Testori, C. Weiser, F. Sterz, M. Haugk. (2014). “Where no guideline has gone before: Retrospective analysis of resuscitation in the 24th century.” Resuscitation (December: Volume 85, Issue 12, Pages 1790–1794) dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resuscitation.2014.10.008.

Signals: health, medicine, science fiction, Star Trek

Rooftop Resources Project: Report from Timothy Mack

The practical realities of building sustainable networks are coming to life in Oakland, California, under the stewardship of a nonprofit group called Bay Localize as part of its Rooftop Resources Project.

Working with PlaceWorks, a Berkeley design and planning consultancy, Bay Localize is utilizing GIS tools to conduct a search for Green Roof candidates that might host hydroponic gardens, photovoltaic panels, and rainwater-collection systems. Some roofs could be viable for more than one of these uses, although slanted roofs have not worked well for garden sites. (Energy generation requires the slant to be in the right direction.)

The project team then collects a deeper layer of data on the ranges of building use and construction, roof access and materials, structural integrity, and surrounding room for ground-level water-collection tanks. This data can be collected and collated using hand-held devices and then used to calculate gallons of water, kilowatts of electricity, and pounds of vegetables potentially produced by any one rooftop. Read more.

Timothy Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was excerpted from Foresight SIGNALS Blog. Image courtesy of Bay Localize.

Signals: collaboration, energy, gardens, green buildings, hydroponics, photovoltaics, sustainability, urban planning, water

Futurists at Work, Foresight in the News

  

Sci-Fi Author Named Chief Futurist: Magic Leap Inc. has tapped science-fiction author Neal Stephenson, who coined the concept of the “metaverse,” to help develop the technologies behind the company’s products, largely related to games and how users experience artificial worlds. “Neal is a true visionary and the very first to conceptualize a social, virtual world in a coherent way,” said Magic Leap founder, president, and CEO Rony Abovitz  in a press release. Stephenson responded wryly on the company’s blog: “‘Chief Futurist’ runs the risk of being a disembodied brain on a stick. I took the job on the understanding that I would have the opportunity to get a few things done.”

The Futurist Portfolio: South African investment banker Murray Legg believes U.S. companies will continue their momentum in 2015, with technology, health care, and industry delivering “great returns, likely into the low double digits,” he writes on his blog. His Futurist Portfolio comprises companies led by visionaries, “companies that are looking into the future and bringing solutions to market that address the challenges the middle of the bell curve aren’t entirely aware of as yet.” His picks include Naspers, Novo Nordisk, Google, Apple, Alibaba, Tesla, and Airbus. Read: “2015—My Stock Portfolio View,” Murray’s Blog (December 6, 2014).

A Futurist for the Birds? Environmental scientist Jessica Zelt’s work enlisting citizen scientists to produce a database of bird sightings is featured in Audubon magazine. Begun in 2008, the project to digitize the North American Bird Phenology Program now involves more than 2,500 volunteers transcribing handwritten reports as much as 100 years old. Unlocking this historic data promises to help scientists understand the effects of climate change on bird migration. Read: “Three Generations of Citizen Science: The Futurist” by Rachel Nuwer, Audubon (November-December 2014).

Send us your signals and stories! News about your work or other leads, tips, reviews, and ideas are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight SIGNALS with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

Foresight SIGNALS is a publication of AAI Foresight

 1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Signals: Peak Youth... Fish Forecasting... Rise and Fall of Intelligence... and more

Vol. 1, No. 4 | December 15, 2014 | AAI Foresight 

Inside Foresight SIGNALS

> Peak Youth: Preparing Now for an Aging Planet

> Fish Forecasting: New Methods for Monitoring Marine Life

> Book Note: The Rise and Fall of Intelligence

> Signals from the Foresight Community

Peak Youth: Preparing Now for an Aging Planet

The majority of countries around the world are graying, due to the so-called demographic dividend: Improved educational attainment and economic empowerment are lowering birthrates, and individuals are living longer, healthier lives.

As a result, we may soon reach “peak youth,” wherein the number and proportion of young people in the world are as high as they will ever be. Without investment in their futures, these young people could be burdens to society rather than assets, warns a new report from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA).

There are currently 1.8 billion humans ages 10 to 24, but those numbers are expected to drop as more countries benefit from the demographic dividend. Only six countries, five of which are in sub-Saharan Africa, are “youthening” rather than aging, but even these countries are expected to reverse the trend by 2020.

For societies to benefit from the demographic dividend, young people need opportunities to thrive; this means not just creating jobs for them, but also improving education and health, especially for girls, the report urges.

The time to make these investments in youth is now, UNFPA report editor Richard Kollodge told IRIN News: “Eventually a very young population will become a very old population, and you have to plan for that too. Unless steps are taken right now, then the opportunity for a demographic dividend will be squandered.”

Sources: IRIN News; State of World Population 2014 (UNFPA).

Signals: aging, birthrates, development, education, health, population, youth

Fish Forecasting: New Methods for Monitoring Marine Life

The cold waters off Peru and Chile are richly productive, yielding between 5% and 10% of the world’s fish. Researchers are now learning more about why this ecosystem, known as the Humboldt Current, is so productive, aiming to predict the impacts of environmental disturbances on these waters’ productivity.

Life in the Humboldt Current is nourished by the constant upwelling of more nutrient-rich waters from the deep, according to researchers from the Institute of Research for Development (IRD) in France. Using high-resolution sensors, they have modeled the circulation of oxygen content in these churning waters, monitoring how variations in the intensity of seasonal, low-oxygen currents from the equator affect the Humboldt’s ecosystem.

With additional modeling work, these studies will help improve forecasts of the health of important fish resources, particularly anchovy stocks.

Bioluminescence—the flashes of light generated by tiny marine organisms such as dinoflagellates—offers another unique tool for monitoring fish stocks, believes Dr. Charlotte Marcinko of Britain’s National Oceanography Centre. When fish move through the seas, the churning water disturbs the dinoflagellates and triggers the chemical reactions producing the telltale glow.

Modeling changes in the seasonal abundance of the bioluminescent organisms may better inform researchers monitoring the size and movements of fish populations.

Sources: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) and National Oceanography Centre.

Signals: ecosystems, fish, models, oceans, resources

Book Note: The Rise and Fall of Intelligence

Defense Department historian Michael Warner’s timely book The Rise and Fall of Intelligence: An International Security History (Georgetown University Press, 2014) offers an academic but accessible overview of a topic naturally veiled in secrecy and cloaked in misconceptions. The author eschews sensationalism, unlike the still-trending reactions to reactions to the so-called #TortureReport recently released by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (Executive Summary: PDF).

In fact, the details and findings of the SSCI report ought not to be a surprise, as the CIA inspector general’s own review of the “enhanced interrogation program,” which occurred at about the same time that the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal broke, was stomach-turning (and policy-questioning) in its own right: “Not a few American officials believed the legal rationale for those techniques could not be defended,” Warner writes.

Historically, what Warner refers to as the rise of intelligence is the long-term professionalizing of the endeavors of states … to advance or protect their own interests—vital for preventing wars or winning them efficiently. …

Now, the Information Revolution has generated vastly more intelligence and more entities anxious to use or abuse it, while overwhelming analysts. “The digital revolution compounded the [analysis] problem many times over,” Warner writes. Today, we are seeing the fall of intelligence and perhaps the end of secrets.

Adapted from Foresight SIGNALS Blog. Read the review. Purchase the book. 

Signals: governance, information, intelligence, security, torture, war, world affairs

Signals from the Foresight Community

Association of Professional Futurists: Nominations for Most Significant Futures Work for 2015 are open until January 31, 2015. The awards recognize the work of foresight professionals and others engaged in advancing our understanding of the future. The work may be text (e.g., books, dissertations, reports) or digital (Web sites, games, videos, software), produced between 2010 and the end of 2014. Winners will be announced at the APF Annual Reception in San Francisco on Saturday, July 25, 2015. Details: APF (Signal via Andy Hines) 

International Society for Information Studies: Call for papers— "The Global Brain and the Future Information Society," part of the IS4IS 2015 Summit Vienna to be held at the Vienna University of Technology, June 3-7, 2015. Featuring keynote speaker Francis Heylighen, director of the Global Brain Institute, the track aims to cover the multifaceted impacts of information technology on society. One-page abstracts with links and references should be submitted by February 15, 2015, through the conference submission page. Details: IS4IS 2015 Summit Vienna (Signal via Francis Heylighen)

Club of Amsterdam: The Future Now Show is a monthly video series exploring current affairs and the visions they inspire, and sparking discussions for strategies to shape the future. Recent webisodes have covered changing universities, political transition in the Middle East and North Africa, 3-D printing and medicine, climate change and food, and more. Tune in: The Future Now Show (Signal via Felix Bopp) 

Gordon Report: Despite an encouraging figure of 5.8% unemployment in the United States, all is not well for either job seekers or employers, according to the December 2014 issue of Imperial Consulting Corporation’s monthly newsletter. The official unemployment figure does not include individuals working part time but hoping for full-time jobs with benefits, nor those who have become too discouraged to continue seeking work. Meanwhile, employers are struggling to find workers with the high-level skills they need. This is a problem that employers may need to address more aggressively themselves by investing in training. Learn more or subscribe: Gordon Report (Signal via Edward Gordon) 

Send us your signals! News about your work or other leads, tips, and ideas are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor. 

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight SIGNALS with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

Foresight SIGNALS is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1