Nanotech and Cancer

By Timothy C. Mack

One of the most encouraging trends in medicine in recent years is the growth of systemic approaches to problem solving, much like approaches in foresight. In other words, a range of factors often affect an outcome, each requiring a solution that must work effectively in combination with other related solutions.

A critical example of this multiple-problem challenge is improving chemotherapy delivery in cancer treatment. Historically, the challenge has been to target drugs accurately at cancer cells; the powerful drugs may often cause damage to surrounding healthy tissue. The body may also treat these medical interventions as intruders, attacking and disabling them through human immune mechanisms. Moreover, even drug packages that actually reach the targeted tumor may be entangled in the dense outer structures of a malignant mass, and thus unable to reach and fully affect its critical internal structures.

Recently, researchers have used nanotech to create protective vehicles and delivery mechanisms that now appear to overcome these obstacles. For example, a team at the University of Tokyo has developed nano-level sheaths out of glycol that can contain drug packages 200 times smaller than a red-blood cell. Called polymeric micelles, these drug-delivery packages can penetrate tumors by slipping through the irregular tumor surface; their smooth and neutral coating prevents antibody defenses from activating. After delivering drugs to their targets, the packages then dissolve in the high-acid cores of cancer tumors.

There is hope that these nanotech sheaths can be now combined with cancer-seeking antibodies already developed and may also offer the ability to slip through the blood-brain barrier, which has continued to resist traditional drug delivery. As is often the case in new and converging technological developments, each of these developments is likely to further accelerate advances in related technology solutions.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. 

Source: Horacio Cabral and Kazunori Kataoka, “Progress of Drug-Loaded Polymeric Micelles into Clinical Studies,” Journal of Controlled Release (September 28, 2014), Volume 190, pages 465-476.

Image: Rhoda Baer, National Cancer Institute

Signals: Energy for Mars... Deforestation and Species Loss... Customers Too Engaged? and more

Vol. 1, No. 10 | March 18, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Harvesting Energy on Mars

> Deforestation and Species Loss in the Amazon

> Can Customers Be Too Engaged?

> Jumping Technology Categories: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> News for the Foresight Community

Harvesting Energy on Mars

A major technological hurdle to colonizing Mars is providing a sustainable source of energy for travelers and inhabitants. Researchers at Northumbria University are developing an engine that can harvest energy from carbon dioxide, which is apparently abundant on Mars in the form of dry ice. The breakthrough also means that a ticket to Mars need not be one way, according to scientists.

The technique, described in the journal Nature Communications, exploits a phenomenon known as the Leidenfrost effect, which produces energy when a liquid comes in contact with a surface much hotter than the liquid’s boiling point. With solid carbon dioxide (dry ice), the Leidenfrost effect creates a vapor, which the Northumbria team believes can be captured to power an engine with significantly less friction.

“One thing is certain, our future on other planets depends on our ability to adapt our knowledge to the constraints imposed by strange worlds, and to devise creative ways to exploit natural resources that do not naturally occur here on Earth,” said co-author Rodrigo Ledesma-Aguilar in a press statement.

Source: Northumbria University

Reference: Gary G. Wells, Rodrigo Ledesma-Aguilar, Glen McHale, and Khellil Sefiane, “A sublimation heat engine,” Nature Communications 6, Article number: 6390, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7390

Signals: energy harvesting, Mars

Deforestation and Species Loss in the Amazon

A third of the Amazon is approaching a tipping point in deforestation that will accelerate species loss. By 2030, these endangered areas could lose 31 percent to 44 percent of species, predicts a team of Cambridge University researchers.

Historically, just one or two species is lost for every 10 percent loss of forest coverage; however, when an area dips below a threshold of 43 percent of forest coverage, species loss accelerates to two to eight species per 10 percent forest loss.

Pressure on land use comes largely from agriculture, as farmers work to meet the demands of growing (and increasingly affluent) human populations. In Brazil, individual landowners are required to retain 80% forest cover, but this is rarely achieved, according to the researchers. A more successful approach might be to consider entire landscapes rather than individual farms, and to promote practices that stop deforestation above the threshold.

The research supports a new approach to environmental legislation in Brazil and the tropics, said study leader Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero in a press statement. “We need to move from thinking in terms of compliance at a farm scale to compliance at a landscape scale if we are to save as many species as we can from extinction,” he concluded.

Source: University of Cambridge. Image: Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero

Reference: Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero, Toby A. Gardner, Isabel Rosa, Silvio Frosini de Barros Ferraz, and William J. Sutherland, “Thresholds of species loss in Amazonian deforestation frontier landscapes,” Conservation Biology, 2015 (Vol. 29, issue 1).  DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12446

Signals: agriculture, Amazon, biodiversity, deforestation, species loss

Can Customers Be Too Engaged?

Increasing audience engagement has long been a mantra in brand promotion, but a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research suggests that some audience members may be too engaged for a brand’s good.

Using the popular American reality TV series America’s Next Top Model as a case study, researchers Marie-Agnès Parmentier (HEC Montréal) and Eileen Fischer (York University) examined how social media enabled and encouraged fans to interact with the show and with other fans. Though the show encouraged this engagement, its consequences were often out of the producers’ control.

Thanks to their engagement, many fans felt encouraged to persistently and passionately offer their advice regarding things they didn’t like about the show (change of format, new judges, etc.). The unintended consequence was to contribute to a negative image of the show among other fans. The researchers conclude that the most enthusiastic fans may have thus inadvertently contributed to the show’s declining popularity.

The lesson for brands: Beware of what you wish for. “Ironically, fans may contribute to the destabilization of a brand even as they are trying to help prevent this,” write Parmentier and Fischer. “While fans can be conducive to brand value creation or co-creation, they can equally contribute to value co-destruction.”

Reference: Marie-Agnès Parmentier and Eileen Fischer, “Things Fall Apart: The Dynamics of Brand Audience Dissipation,” Journal of Consumer Research, February 2015 (Vol. 41, No. 5). DOI: 10.1086/678907

Signals: audience engagement, brands, marketing, social media

Jumping Technology Categories: Report from Timothy C. Mack

In Silicon Valley, the blessing (or curse) of vast disposable resources appears to be leading a number of companies out of the arena of computer software and hardware development into such terra incognita as Google’s self-driving, electric-powered car.

Google already has five years of R&D invested in this self-driving car project. However, how well would Google find its way in an entirely new marketplace with technology of a distinctly new level? As Mashable writer Lance Ulanoff notes, there are as many as 6,000 parts in an automobile, and there is a much higher standard for drivability and driver safety than is required for software and hardware.

The price points involved in such a quantum shift are quite intimidating, considering both the overhead investment per unit and the volume of units that would need to be sold to make the numbers work.

As I have observed elsewhere, the liability issues for self-driving cars are likely to take years and maybe even decades to sort out. Unintended consequences arise from even small shifts in direction. The outcomes of such an adventure are difficult to estimate, but they are likely to be substantial and messy. Read more

Timothy C. Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was excerpted from the Foresight Signals Blog. Image: Google Blog

News for the Foresight Community

• Book: The Great Transition. Earth Policy Institute President Lester Brown’s latest book, The Great Transition: Shifting From Fossil Fuels to Solar and Wind Energy
(W.W. Norton, 2015), is now available for pre-order. Co-authored with EPI researchers Janet Larsen, J. Matthew Roney, and Emily E. Adams, The Great Transition documents the global movement toward the energy choices that are leading to a new economy. As the costs of solar and wind power fall, their spread will accelerate. Read Chapter 1, Changing Direction. Order the book. 

• Conference: Tackling Wicked Problems. The World Conference of Futures Research 2015, to be held June 11-12, 2015, in Turku, Finland, will explore how the study of the future can be used to address today’s most perplexing problems. Among the featured speakers at “Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems” will be Thomas Lombardo of the Center for Future Consciousness; Kerstin Cuhls, scientific manager at Fraunhofer ISI; and Sirkka Heinonen of the  Finland Futures Research Centre at the University of Turku. Details.

• Call for Papers: Innovation and Degrowth. A special issue of Prometheus: Critical Studies in Innovation will explore the concept of sustainable degrowth as an alternative approach to human progress that decouples innovation and economic growth. Guest editors for the issue are Steffen Roth, ESC Rennes School of Business, France; Miguel Pérez-Valls, University of Almeria, Spain; and Jari Kaivo-oja, University of Turku, Finland. Submission details.

---

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

---

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Designer: Lisa Mathias

lisa@lisamathiasdesign.net

Jumping Technology Categories

By Timothy C. Mack

Over the years, I have written concerning the unexpected consequences for companies of moving into technologies completely new to them, encouraged by their success in other, unrelated arenas. The illusion that success is a quality that travels with its recipient to new endeavors is a form of hubris that seems most endemic to areas like Silicon Valley in California. There, the blessing (or curse) of vast disposable resources appears to be leading a number of companies out of the arena of computer software and hardware development into such terra incognita as Google’s self-driving, electric-powered car.

Vox’s Timothy B. Lee has observed that the data being collected for a number of years by the Google Street View program—which has built the detailed 3-D maps of streets worldwide that could guide such a car—and a corporate “moon shot” culture that encourages broad-based engineering endeavors provide some baseline for such an undertaking. But even breakthrough innovations in batteries and power management would be within the range of possibility.

Google already has five years of R&D invested in this self-driving car project. However, how well would Google find its way in an entirely new marketplace with technology of a distinctly new level? As Mashable writer Lance Ulanoff notes, there are as many as 6,000 parts in an automobile (although battery power does reduce that number a bit), and there is a much higher standard for drivability and driver safety than is required for software and hardware. Finally, this undertaking would require a whole new universe of suppliers and logistics.

The price points involved in such a quantum shift are quite intimidating, considering both the overhead investment per unit and the volume of units that would need to be sold to make the numbers work. While overseas production is an option (perhaps with partners), that choice could become a political football within the United States.

Competitors like Apple are in fact entering the automotive market, but by working from existing strengths, such as the CarPlay dashboard interface, says Lee. While Apple has been hiring from within the auto industry to better understand that marketplace and technology, moving from the Apple Store model to the automobile showroom floor is also tough to imagine. Google does not even have brick and mortar sales structures, meaning sales might have to go entirely digital. Then what happens to the automobile test drive?

New technology and the tight integration of hardware and software is a compelling story, as Apple demonstrates. But self-driving software for conventional cars is also compelling, and this latter approach more closely matches Google’s history of building products that run on other people’s devices.

Note: As I have observed elsewhere, the liability issues for self-driving cars are likely to take years and maybe even decades to sort out. Unintended consequences arise from even small shifts in direction. The outcomes of such an adventure are difficult to estimate, but they are likely to be substantial and messy.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc.

Further reading: Is Apple building a self-driving vehicle or is it not?

“Apple really seems to be building an Apple Car. That's not as crazy as it sounds,”

Timothy B. Lee, Vox (updated February 19, 2015).

“6 reasons why Apple is not building a car,” Lance Ulanoff, Mashable (February 18, 2015).

Images:  Google Blog; Apple.

Signals: Wave Energy... Unequal Inequality... Craft Villages... and more

Vol. 1, No. 9 | March 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Wave Energy Gears Up

> Income Inequality Is Unequal in Europe

> “Craft Villages” May Succumb to Globalization

> Battery Challenges in Coming Years: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> Announcements from AAI Foresight

Wave Energy Gears Up

Harvesting the power of the oceans to produce cheap electricity has long been a dream of green engineering. So far, however, wave energy has been hampered by the inconsistencies of waves themselves, which vary in timing and height, making it difficult to create a reliable conversion system.

Now, a Swedish company, CorPower Ocean, reports that its new wave system can anticipate the sizes of incoming waves so that it can capture the entire spectrum of wave energy. As a result, the company claims, it can generate five times more energy than current state-of the-art systems and for a third of the cost.

The CorPower system also benefits from a “cascade” gear, designed at Sweden’s Royal Institute of Technology (KHT), which efficiently converts linear motion into rotation. Its numerous small pinions and wheels enable the device to handle heavy loads and high velocities.

The company plans to install a half-scale pilot version of the technology in November 2015 in cooperation with the multinational electric utility company Iberdrola.

Source: KHT Royal Institute of Technology. Images: Courtesy of CorPower Ocean.

Signals: electricity, energy, green engineering

Income Inequality Is Unequal in Europe

The income gap widened in two-thirds of the European Union between 2006 and 2011, but inequality decreased in at least eight EU countries, notably Portugal and Greece, according to a study by the University of Barcelona.

Hardest hit by income inequality were Spain, Cyprus, Hungary, and Slovakia, but the gap was due mostly to increased unemployment rather than to changes in income levels among the employed populations. Further analysis of post-recession data will shed light on the impacts “of precarious forms of work, for instance part-time jobs, on wage inequality,” researcher Raúl Ramos said in a press statement.

In many cases, governments have attempted to combat wage inequality by increasing the minimum wage; however, the real purchasing power of these wages were reduced by the recession. The study also found that policies aimed at improving competition helped reduce inequality in annual wages.

Source: University of Barcelona. Details: Wage and Income Inequality in the European Union

Signals: economics, European Union, inequality

“Craft Villages” May Succumb to Globalization

The twin forces of globalization and urbanization offer both opportunities and challenges for rural villages. In Vietnam, a system of specialized “craft villages” has offered rice farmers off-season employment and security for centuries; while modernized production technologies and newly opened markets gave them a boost in the 1980s, new threats to their existence have recently emerged.

Vietnam has thousands of craft villages—more than 500 surrounding Hanoi alone—each specializing in a particular craft, such as artworks, textiles, woven goods, or religious objects. These ancient village systems self-organize into related clusters to enhance productivity and labor resources. They now provide work for almost 20% of the rural population of working age, with far better incomes than from agricultural work, according to studies led by Sylvie Fanchette of Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD).

The craft village system began to flourish with improved productivity and access to export markets, but new competition quickly entered in the form of foreign manufacturers seeking cheap labor, the IRD researchers note. The influx of heavy industry has also led to competition for the agricultural land that the craft villages rely on.

As the craft villages succumb to globalization and urbanization, the skills developed and handed down by generations of craft workers may disappear, as well.

Source: IRD. Image: Michael Foley Photography, via Flickr (Creative Commons).

Signals: crafts, culture, globalization, industrialization, urbanization, Vietnam

Battery Challenges in Coming Years: Report from Timothy C. Mack

Electric vehicles (EVs) continue to climb in attractiveness, with the Tesla Model S winning acceleration comparisons hands down. Their environmental advantages are clear, but the cost and recharge requirements of automobile batteries continue to stand in the path of broad market acceptance of EVs.

A good deal of battery science is now proceeding on trial and error; when those innovations work, the reason why is still often unclear, as BusinessWeek writer Steve LeVine explains in his new book, The Powerhouse (Viking, 2015). In fact, it may be likely that more progress in battery technology can be achieved incrementally through engineering or manufacturing approaches (or even by lightly tweaking the chemistry of battery materials), rather than through dramatic new breakthroughs—which may include unforeseen pitfalls down the road.

Futurists may often become enamored by the promise of a new technology and its transformative potential while not giving the practical side of technology adoption enough thought, especially potential operational obstacles. This is particularly true in the new materials arenas, where nanotech and composite materials are literally creating new science and the rules of the game are still being discovered.  Read more 

Timothy C. Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was excerpted from the Foresight Signals Blog. Image: Tesla Motors, via Facebook.

Signals: batteries, electric vehicles, materials engineering, transportation

Announcements from AAI Foresight

* New Logo! Thanks go to graphic artist Lisa Mathias for our spiffy new logo for this newsletter! Formerly the art director of the World Future Society, Lisa is also a gifted studio artist. Visit her graphics portfolio at Lisa Mathias Design and her fine art portfolio at LisaMathias.com.

* “Foresight Reports” Publication Project Launched. AAI Foresight has released its first industry forecast white paper, “The Future of Retail Marketing,” to introduce a series of semiannual publications for the firm’s clients. The reports, which will initially be free of charge, will be available to logged-in visitors at the AAI Foresight Web site.

The goal of Foresight Reports is to demonstrate the application of sound foresight techniques to improve the analysis of a key issue affecting our future, be it an economic sector or an ecosystem. The papers will largely be invited by AAI Foresight or written by members of its established consulting partners, but we will also consider submissions. Please contact Tim Mack or Cindy Wagner for details.

---

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

---

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Battery Challenges in Coming Years

By Timothy C. Mack

Electric vehicles (EVs) continue to climb in attractiveness, with the Tesla Model S winning acceleration comparisons hands down. Their environmental advantages are clear, but the cost and recharge requirements of automobile batteries continue to stand in the path of broad market acceptance of EVs. Breakthroughs in this area are announced regularly; however, any celebrations might be followed by an “Oops!” announcement, or the “breakthrough” may gain no real momentum and just fade away quietly.

While lithium ion battery technology continues to show promise, some of the mechanics of how these batteries actually work remains a mystery, as a small change in configuration can produce large, unexpected, and often negative results. Certain battery materials may start out very promising, but, for reasons not yet understood, diminish in effectiveness over time, as BusinessWeek writer Steve LeVine explains in his new book, The Powerhouse: Inside the Invention of a Battery to Save the World (Viking, 2015). The chemical and physical interactions of these new materials have the nature of a just-discovered continent—where the dynamics are not completely clear.

A good deal of battery science is now proceeding on trial and error; when those innovations work, the reason why is still often unclear. In fact, it may be likely that more progress in battery technology can be achieved incrementally through engineering or manufacturing approaches (or even by lightly tweaking the chemistry of battery materials), rather than through dramatic new breakthroughs—which may include unforeseen pitfalls down the road.

The adoption of EVs remains a very small portion of the car market as a whole. This is in part because even the most extravagant industry projections of 200 miles on a single change fall significantly short of the 350-mile average range for a tank of gasoline. And the $35,000 hoped-for price of a bargain Tesla is still $20,000 more than a low-end gasoline car.

However, the spirit of discovery continues to thrive. LeVine reports that work at Argonne National Laboratory is making new advances with previously problematic technology by using lower voltages and new additives in trace amounts. But it is still a tough business for technology startups. As one former executive of an innovative (but now bankrupt) battery company recently said, “Energy storage is a game [best] played by big players, because there are so many things that can go wrong in a battery.”

Note: Futurists may often become enamored by the promise of a new technology and its transformative potential while not giving the practical side of technology adoption enough thought, especially potential operational obstacles. This is particularly true in the new materials arenas, where nanotech and composite materials are literally creating new science and the rules of the game are still being discovered.

While taking a “wait and see” approach sometimes tries the patience, it is preferable to issuing a rather noticeable public retraction for technological promises that can’t be kept.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc.

Images courtesy of Tesla Motors (via Facebook) and Argonne National Laboratory (via Flickr).

Signals: "Octobot" ... Norway's Warming Fossils... Top Futurist Think Tanks... and more

Vol. 1, No. 8 | February 17, 2015 | AAI Foresight 

Inside Foresight SIGNALS

> Octobot: Octopus-Inspired Robot Could Accelerate Ocean Exploration

> Why Global Warming Has Archaeologists Scrambling

> Growing Pains for Solar Power: Report from Timothy C. Mack

> Futurists and Foresight in the News: Ranking the Think Tanks

Octobot: Octopus-Inspired Robot Could Accelerate Ocean Exploration

Darting through water like a child’s deflating balloon flies through the air, a new octopus-inspired robot promises to accelerate ocean research and development.

Most underwater vehicles are streamlined to reduce drag, but the octobot developed at University of Southampton draws inspiration from cephalopods, which expand their bodies with water that they then quickly expel in order to propel themselves.

Scaling up the size of the prototype robots could enable oceanographers to equip them with instrumentation or other payloads.

Source:  University of Southampton

Reference: Gabriel Weymouth (University of Southampton), Vignesh Subramaniam (Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology), and Michael Triantafyllou (MIT), “Ultra-fast escape maneuver of an octopus-inspired robot,” Bioinspiration and Biomimetics (Vol. 10, No. 1), published February 2, 2015. doi:10.1088/1748-3190/10/1/016016

Signals: biomimicry, engineering, oceanography, robotics

Why Global Warming Has Archaeologists Scrambling

Ancient arrowheads, wooden shafts, and even shoes are starting to turn up in a once-frozen landscape, but archaeologists in Norway are not necessarily rejoicing. As ancient snow patches begin to melt—the ice and snow that protected such artefacts for millennia—there may be little time to sort and preserve these pieces of the past.

Today’s Norway is too hot in the summer and dry in the winter for permanent snow patches and glaciers to form, and those that are there now have survived in small dots tucked away from the sun’s heat and the wind’s power. As the climate changes, however, these small, ancient snow patches are disappearing at an alarming rate, according to scientists at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology.

Geologists are using georadar to measure the thickness of glaciers and snow patches, as well as GPS technologies to track movement (glaciers are moving masses of ice and snow, while the snow patches are stationary).

The researchers have found that some of Norway’s oldest snow patches—5,000 years—are actually glaciers and are now thinning. This makes them more vulnerable to the elements and more likely to disappear, leaving whatever they once protected also exposed and vulnerable.

The loss of the snow patches will also have an effect on wildlife such as reindeer, the scientists warn.

Details: Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Signals: archaeology, climate change, ecosystems, geology

Growing Pains for Solar Power: Report from Timothy C. Mack

The Kauai Island Utility Cooperative in the Hawaiian Islands would seem to be the poster child for the increasing market penetration of solar power. KIUC has quintupled utility-scale solar capacity over the past year, but the path to the cutting edge has not been an easy one.

As MIT Technology Review contributing editor Peter Fairley recently reported, KIUC’s growth problems are related to power fluctuations and the need for back-up generators powered by diesel or gasoline, as well as to the failure of the utility’s lead-acid battery banks. KIUC is trying again with lithium-ion batteries, which are now rated for four to six times as many cycles and can absorb any excess solar power generation that might occur, Fairley reports.

The lesson here is that foresight tools will always have a useful role in accurate technology assessment and adoption analysis, especially concerning the systemic impacts of new technology applications in new settings and configurations.

Timothy C. Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc. This report was adapted from the Foresight SIGNALS Blog. Image: Courtesy of Kauai Island Utility Cooperative.

Futurists and Foresight in the News: Ranking the Think Tanks

Future-oriented think tanks dominated what has become like the Academy Awards for public policy analysis. When the 2014 edition of the Global Go To Think Tank Index Report was released in January by University of Pennsylvania’s Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, U.S.-based Brookings Institution took home the prize as the top think tank in the world, followed by the U.K.’s Chatham House.

Prepared by program director James McGann, the report highlights challenges and trends facing think tanks worldwide, including decreased funding from private and public donors, along with donors’ focus on short-term issues, and growing competition from advocacy groups for the attention of both policy makers and the public.

Though most think tanks have an implicit mission to improve the future, some groups, like the RAND Corporation and The Millennium Project, have been pioneers in developing and applying foresight techniques in their analysis of issues critical to the future. Among the future-oriented think tanks honored in the 2014 report are:

* RAND Corporation: #7 in Top Think Tanks Worldwide and #6 in U.S.; #1 in Best Transdisciplinary Research Program; #2 in Defense and National Security; #2 in Education Policy; #2 in Domestic Health Policy; #3 in Social Policy; #4 in Global Health Policy; #4 in Science and Technology; #5 in Energy and Resource Policy; #6 in International Economic Policy; #6 in Most Significant Impact on Public Policy; #7 in Domestic Economic Policy; #9 in Foreign Policy and International Affairs; #19 in International Development; #30 in Environment

* Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars: #10 in Top Think Tanks Worldwide and #5 in the U.S.; #2 in Transdisciplinary Research Program; #4 in International Development; #8 in Foreign Policy and International Affairs; #14 in Most Significant Impact on Public Policy; #27 in Defense and National Security; #5 in Think Tanks to Watch

* Pew Research Center: #7 in Top Think Tanks in the United States, also earning high rankings for use of media (#1), use of the Internet (#3), and advocacy campaign (#7).

* World Resources Institute: #15 in Top Think Tanks in the United States; #1 in Environment; #2 in Energy and Resource Policy; #9 in Transdisciplinary Research Program

* Resources for the Future: #34 in Top Think Tanks in the United States; #9 in Energy and Resource Policy; #11 in Environment; #18 Best New Idea or Paradigm

* Hudson Institute: #31 in Top Think Tanks in the United States; #41 in Foreign Policy and International Affairs; #58 in International Development; #65 in Defense and National Security

* Worldwatch Institute: #35 in Top Think Tanks in the United States; #3 in Environment

* Information Technology & Innovation Foundation: #49 in Top Think Tanks in the United States; #2 in Science and Technology

* Canada 2020: #30 in Top Think Tanks in Canada and Mexico and #59 in Think Tanks to Watch

* Institucion Futuro (Spain): #137 in Top Think Tanks Worldwide and #72 in Western Europe

* The Millennium Project: #6 in Best New Idea or Paradigm. The report did not specify a particular new idea or paradigm, but The Millennium Project has recently developed the Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS), which certainly merits note.

The Best New Idea or Paradigm by a Think Tank was one of several special achievement categories added in 2013 (along with best conference, best collaboration, best use of social networks, and others), giving the peer nominators and reviewers more opportunities to highlight outstanding work by the world’s cadre of professional thinkers.

Source: Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program

Signals: institutions, public policy, think tanks

---

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.  

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight SIGNALS with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

---

Foresight SIGNALS is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

The Solar Power Industry and Its Growing Pains

By Timothy C. Mack

The Kauai Island Utility Cooperative in the Hawaiian Islands would seem to be the poster child for the increasing market penetration of solar power. KIUC has quintupled utility-scale solar capacity over the past year and soon may approach 80% of peak power generation for solar on the island, as MIT Technology Review contributing editor Peter Fairley recently reported.

However, the path to the cutting edge has not been an easy one, underlining that basic futurist warning not to overlook the unintended consequences and systemic weak spots of technological innovation.

KIUC’s growth-related problems are grounded in that perennial challenge of renewable energy, the curse of power fluctuation, Fairley notes. Even in high sun-day settings like Hawaii, there are always a few clouds that pass by, sending power outputs dropping in less than a minute by 70% to 80%. The result is alternating current (AC) levels that fall below 60 hertz, which may damage customer equipment or even trigger a local blackout.

Naturally, utilities have installed diesel or gasoline-fired generators to take up that frequency droop, as well as large battery banks. But those generators ultimately wear out from frequent heavy use. They also pump petro-carbons into the atmosphere while continuing to consume petroleum, instead of largely replacing them with clean, renewable power.

On the battery side, the 4.5 megawatt bursts of replacement power needed to offset AC disruptions soon wore KIUC’s lead-acid battery banks out: They failed in one-quarter of the lifetime promised by the supplier. As Fairley reports, the utility is trying again with lithium-ion batteries, which are now rated for four to six times as many cycles and can absorb any excess solar power generation that might occur.

Judging from the subsequent (and related) bankruptcy of KIUC’s initial battery supplier, it is clear that performance projections for new applications are always an iffy business.

Note: It appears that foresight tools will always have a useful role in accurate technology assessment and adoption analysis, especially concerning the systemic impacts of new technology applications in new settings and configurations. In this case, the economic imperative to meet local energy needs on one side, and to make sales quotas on the other, led development partners to underestimate the challenges of such a massive conversion to renewables.

Balancing of normative optimism about desired outcomes with realistic assessment of possible shortfalls is essential for effective technology upgrades, and the cross-assessment of opportunities and potential threats is a central part of responsible foresight.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc.