Foresight SIGNALS: May 2015

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Signals: GM Tobacco ... Hacking with the Fish ... and more

Vol. 1, No. 15 | June 2, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> GM Tobacco Could Boost Biorefineries

> Hackathon Seeks Sustainable Fishing Technologies

> Improving Productivity Requires Training Supervisors

> News for the Foresight Community

GM Tobacco Could Boost Biorefineries

Tobacco and genetically modified organisms are often viewed as enemies of human and environmental health. Soon, they may take on more heroic roles, thanks to a plan to use engineered tobacco as “green factories.”

Many countries, such as Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, have set ambitious environmental goals to decarbonize, which means finding substitutes for petroleum and the many industrial products on which they are based. Biorefineries to produce these alternative fuels and products require enzymes to break down biomass into sugars. But the enzymes are currently the most expensive part of the process.

To lower the costs, researchers at Bioforsk in Norway have their eye on tobacco, which has large leaves, is fast growing, and can be harvested several times a year. The researchers aim to insert genes into the tobacco to make the plants produce more enzymes, thus breaking down the cell walls of biomass more effectively.“

Many people are skeptical [of] GMOs, but in this case, we use tobacco plants with the help of biotechnology to produce valuable enzymes for industrial biorefinery,” says lead researcher Jihong Liu Clarke. I believe there are mainly benefits, because we produce cheap enzymes and use the tobacco plant in a health-friendly way.”

Source: Bioforsk, the Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research. Photo: Erling Fløistad

Signals: biorefineries, energy, GMOs, industrial products, tobacco

Hackathon Seeks Sustainable Fishing Technologies

The U.S. State Department is sponsoring a “Fishackathon” to encourage innovative approaches to sustainable fishing. Last year’s inaugural event united 150 volunteer technologists at five U.S. aquariums to build mobile phone apps for fishers in developing countries. This year’s event, June 7 and 8, invites coders, designers, and enthusiasts around the world to #codeforfish.

The efforts will focus on five key problem areas for sustainable fishing: tracking and monitoring fish catches, reporting illegal fishers, registering boats and licensing fishers, identifying fish species and educating others about their market value, and mapping fish stocks to better inform policy makers.

Examples of specific challenges presented to the Fishackathon participants:

Track aquaculture feed ingredients from the original source to the harvested product.
A tool to provide sourcing information and access to local, sustainable seafood.
An app to trace and determine a catch's origin within the Indian Ocean.

“The ‘hacks’ might approach the issues in a number of ways, but all center on finding innovative tools to either gather and synthesize data from the ground up, or disseminate information from the top down,” says Thomas Debass, deputy special representative for global partnerships at the Office of Global Partnerships in the U.S. State Department.

Source: “Five ways technology can help sustainable fishing,” Thomas Debass, Devex #innov8aid, The Development Innovators Blog (May 28, 2015). Details: fishackathon.co

Signals: fishing, innovation, sustainability

Call for papers! If you are working on a foresight analysis project, AAI Foresight would welcome the opportunity to publish your work in the Foresight Reports series. Please contact Cindy Wagner, consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com.

Improving Productivity Requires Training the Supervisors

Improving supervisors’ competence and reducing burdensome regulations are the keys to better productivity, according to a survey of small and medium-sized enterprises in Finland.

The costs of labor, particularly those associated with social security, were named the biggest obstacle to productivity, notes the study published by Lappeenranta University of Technology.

The new survey, a follow-up to 1997 research, revealed key changes in the sources of challenges over the past two decades. Previously, small and medium-sized businesses struggled with lack of resources, but now point to external factors such as legislation and their employees’ trade union activities.

Significantly, the companies surveyed also noted a lack of competence among supervisors as an obstacle for improving productivity. The researchers observe that, as productivity enables enterprises to thin out their workforces, the skills of supervisors take on more importance.

“Companies must see to facilitating the further education of their supervisors,” says senior researcher Sanna Pekkola. “Supervisors must also personally ensure that they have the required competence and maintain it. This requires a willing and active perspective with regard to further education and up-keeping one’s knowledge.”

Source: Lappeenranta University of Technology.

Signals: business, labor, management, productivity, training

News for the Foresight Community

In the News, CBS-San Francisco: Driverless cars are arriving ahead of schedule, and “the transformative impact is going to be vastly greater than we realize,” says Paul Saffo. While such vehicles may be safer for their occupants, they’ll also be massive data-collection machines—as susceptible to hacking as any other device, Saffo notes. Read more: “Why Driverless Cars Both Excite and Terrify Automotive Futurists“ (posted online May 20, 2015)
In the News, Fast Company: Robots and algorithms will replace jobs ranging from military troops to stock traders, says Graeme Codrington (TomorrowToday Global). But in 2025, humans will still be in hot demand for tasks requiring higher-level thinking and judgment, but they’ll be doing so “on demand” as freelancers or contractors. Joe Tankersley (Unique Visions) suggests a few new careers: “tribers” who can build ad hoc teams, urban artisan farmers and advisers, and end-of-life planners. Read more: “The Top Jobs in 10 Years Might Not Be What You Expect“ by Michael Grothaus, Fast Company (posted online May 18, 2015)
New book: The Future of Business edited by Rohit Talwar examines trends that will be affecting businesses over the next 10 to 20 years. More than 50 futurists contributed to the volume, including Maree Conway (“Foresight Infused Strategy”), Gray Scott (“Automation, Digitization, and Simulation”), and Dan Bubley (“Future of the Phone Call”). The book comes out June 11 and is available for preorder (discount coupon code rt1) at Fast Future Publishing.
New book: Lone Wolf Terrorism Prospects and Potential Strategies to Address the Threat, written by Ted Gordon, Yair Sharan, and Elizabeth Florescu, is based on a Real Time Delphi study conducted by The Millennium Project. The study explores the phenomenon of lone wolf attacks, including more than 100 case studies, as well as weapons that might be used in the future, emerging detection technologies, and defense strategies. Details: LoneWolfThreat.com
In Memoriam: Michael Michaelis (1919-2015). Former World Future Society board member Michael Michaelis died peacefully on May 19, less than a month before his 96th birthday. He lived in Chevy Chase, Maryland. After serving on the Advisory Council that led to the formation of the World Future Society, Michaelis was invited to become a founding board member in recognition of his vital connections with a vast array of thinkers and leaders in government, business, and academia. He also contributed two inspiring articles to The Futurist magazine during the organization’s formative years: “Building the World We Want” (June 1968) and “The Management of Change” (February 1971). A memorial is planned for fall 2015. Details: Washington Post, Legacy.com.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Signals: Smart Cities... Emotion Detection... and more

Vol. 1, No. 14 | May 19, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Data Sharing for Smarter Cities

> Emotion Detection and Ad Design

> On the AAI Foresight Blog: Bengston, Mack

> News for the Foresight Community

Data Sharing for Smarter Cities

An organic waste recycling depot on one side of town is close to overflowing. A biogas plant on the other side of town is running on empty and needs biomass right away. Today, this is a scenario of two problems. Tomorrow, a Smart Urban Services project would turn both problems into solutions.

A pilot project in Reutlingen, Germany, demonstrates how sensors and an integrated platform can connect these and other urban infrastructure facilities, such as traffic management. The data would not just be available to a central authority, but would be shared by local communities, companies, and residents, according to Inka Woyke, head of the Service Management team at Fraunhofer IAO.

This connectivity doesn’t just benefit individual services, Woyke says. Smart Urban Services will offer municipalities a competitive advantage for attracting businesses and employees by creating more efficient—and livable—cities.

Partnering with Fraunhofer IAO in the Smart Urban Services consortium are the Institute for Human Factors and Technology Management IAT at the University of Stuttgart, Input Consulting GmbH, and the cities of Chemnitz and Reutlingen.

Source: Fraunhofer IAO. More information: Smart Urban Services. Image: Tim RT Photography, via Flickr (Creative Commons).

Signals: data, infrastructure, smart cities

Emotion Detection and Ad Design

Enrique León Villeda is an emotion detector. He is also a Mexican computer specialist living in Spain, who’s developed software that reads your emotions in real time as you encounter specific products or images.

The algorithm he designed collects sensory data such as heart rate, which is transmitted to a mobile phone or computer via Bluetooth. Analysts can compare a shopper’s emotional reactions to different images in order to produce more positive reactions (i.e., more receptive) to messages and images designed for stores. The project was developed by Tecnalia, a European center for applied research and innovation.

Villeda’s previous work with affective computing included a vest that determined emotional responses to changes in light and temperature. Working in Ireland, he also analyzed political speeches to discover emotional reactions to phrases uttered by a candidate.

Source, story and images: Investigación y Desarrollo [in Spanish].

Signals: advertising, emotions, marketing

On the AAI Foresight Blog

> Notes from an environmental futurist: The journey from science fiction to futurism is a natural one for many of today’s foresight professionals, observes Dave Bengston. But additional reading in nonfiction—particularly the environmental warnings found in Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, E.F. Schumacher’s Small Is Beautiful, and other works—took him on a unique new path. Read “How to Become an Environmental Futurist in 50 Years.” Download Bengston’s AAI Foresight Report “A World on Fire” (co-written with Bob Olson).

> Why savings aren’t saving China: Many developing nations protect their citizens’ futures via safety nets such as social security systems. Traditionally lacking such protections, the Chinese have become such big savers that they are stifling economic growth. Tim Mack describes what the Chinese government is doing to alter consumers’ paths to the future. Read “China’s Savings Culture inTurmoil.”

News for the Foresight Community

> In the news, Huffington Post: Media futurist and filmmaker Jason Silva, host of the National Geographic channel’s Brain Games series, spoke with HuffPo correspondent Marianne Schnall on what technologies such as the smartphone have done to our brains—and our humanity. “The brain ... witnesses the world through limited information it gets through the senses and it fills in the blanks,” Silva says. “Our smartphone is literally a mind-expanding substance. It allows us to transcend our limitations and our perceptions and expand our world.” Read “Interview With Futurist Jason Silva, Host of Brain Games” (April 20, 2015). Watch the interview at AOL. Image: ThisIsJasonSilva.com

> In the news, CBS: Science correspondent Michael Casey asked technology futurist Gray Scott why he considers himself a techno-optimist. They discussed the prospects of such developments as artificially intelligent assistants in our homes and why we fear the things we make—which are actually reflections of ourselves. Scott is founder of Serious Wonder, a multifaceted technology-arts-philosophy media site. Read “Maybe artificial intelligence won't destroy us after all” by Michael Casey, CBS News (posted May 14, 2015).

> Free webinars: TechCast Global has launched a webinar series offering insights by expert foresight panels, led by Bill Halal and Owen Davies. The first session, on April 30, provided an introduction to forecasting methodologies. The May 7 webinar focused on cybersecurity, AI, and the predictions market. The next webinar is scheduled for June 18, featuring Millennium Project co-founder and director Jerome C. Glenn on The Age of Consciousness: Technology Is Driving the World Beyond Knowledge. Details: TechCast Global.

> Teach the Future: A fundraising campaign to bring free futures-education resources to classrooms is halfway to its goal, according to Peter Bishop, executive director of Teach the Future. The project is also recruiting teachers for the summer program. Learn more at Teach the Future’s new website. Donate at Start Some Good before 6:00 p.m. Pacific time May 24.

> The editor has landed: AAI Foresight consulting editor Cindy Wagner is sharpening her red pencil. On May 11, she joined the editorial staff of Scrap, the award-winning publication of the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI). She will continue to produce Foresight Signals twice a month. Check out Scrap.

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Feel free to share Foresight Signals with your networks and to submit any stories, tips, or “signals” of trends emerging on the horizon that we can share with other stakeholders and the foresight community. And if you’re interested in becoming a blogger for FS, please contact Cindy Wagner, our consulting editor, at CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

Saturday, May 16, 2015

China's Savings Culture in Turmoil

By Timothy C. Mack

It has long been a given that the Chinese commitment to saving 40 percent or even more of gross family income would be a continuing element of that nation’s economic profile. While consumer spending is skyrocketing in many developing countries, Chinese citizens have tended to tie their wealth up in savings and real estate, in part because of the lack of social safety nets that are offered by many developed countries.

Now, in response to slowing national growth, the Chinese government is introducing pension systems and universal medical insurance, in hope of freeing up funds in savings and encouraging spending.

Past reforms allowing consumer lending by Web companies are taking on a life of their own. Companies such as Alibaba encourage savings by offering higher interest rates on deposits than many traditional government banks do, thus further complicating the situation.

As well, the Chinese government recently moved to establish local land markets, which would allow farmers to lease farm lands that were formerly owned by rural collectives. This would enable them to earn private income and, together with changes in banking rules, is a sign of transformation under way in a historically change-resistant nation.

Note: An important factor to note here is that ultimate outcomes are shaped by the intersection of public and private sectors—a new phenomenon in China. While long-awaited land reforms have finally arrived, they are seen as piecemeal measures, the ultimate effects of which are difficult to gauge.

Timothy C. Mack is managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc., Experts in Strategic Foresight. Images: teflSearch, Swire via Flickr (Creative Commons).

Source: Alexandra Stevenson, “As Growth Slows, China Pins Hopes on Consumer Spending,” New York Times (January 19, 2015).

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

How to Become an Environmental Futurist in Only 50 Years

By David N. Bengston

As it was for many futurists, science fiction was my “gateway drug” to the world of alternative futures. I was hooked by age nine or ten. We always had stacks of sci-fi lying around the house because my mother was a member of a science fiction book-of-the-month club. I devoured everything I could get my hands on.

In high school, I kept up with science fiction but also started reading my father’s environmental and futures books—classics like Silent Spring, Small Is Beautiful, Limits to Growth, The Coming of Post-Industrial Society, and The Year 2000. Dad was a market researcher who was always looking for emerging trends and issues. He was also an active member of the local chapter of the nascent World Future Society in the late 1960s and early 1970s. It was through my dad’s copies of The Futurist magazine that I first became aware of people who called themselves futurists.

After trying out a couple of college majors in the mid-1970s, I created an individually designed BS degree in futures studies. With advice and encouragement from several University of Minnesota faculty members and inspiration from Minnesota futurists Earl Joseph, Art Harkins, and Joel Barker, my program included three components:

social and technological change (mostly courses in cultural anthropology, sociology, and the history of technology),
economics, and
math and statistics.

I planned to go on in the new master’s program in Futures Studies at the University of Houston-Clear Lake.

But a funny thing happened on my way to becoming a futurist. An outstanding economics professor got me interested in the “dismal science.” I ended up pursuing a master’s in environmental economics instead of heading to Clear Lake, Texas, and eventually received a PhD in forest economics.

Forestry was fascinating, in part because of the long-term perspective: The long growing cycle of trees has compelled foresters to plan decades and even hundreds of years ahead, in contrast to the short-term view of most fields. Foresters are futurists without knowing it—they’re crypto-futurists.

After grad school, I was fortunate to land a job in the mid-1980s as an economist with the research branch of the U.S. Forest Service. This turned out to be the perfect job for me, working with talented and dedicated scientists, forestry professionals, planners and policy makers on a wide range of interesting projects. I had left futures studies behind, but over the years I often dabbled in projects on the edge of futures.

About five years ago, I was looking through some of my old futures books—never had been able to part with them—and a light bulb went off in my head: Maybe I could shift my research into environmental futures.

My project leader in Forest Service R&D was extremely supportive. She sent me to the five-day short course in strategic foresight at the University of Houston taught by Peter Bishop, rekindling my youthful aspiration to be a futurist. With strong support from the director of our research station, the first futures research group in the history of the agency was formed—the Strategic Foresight Group—with project leader Rich Birdsey and two other stellar colleagues.

In the first couple of years of this new mission, I thought of myself as a “future futurist,” not quite there yet. But after attending and presenting at the World Future Society conferences, working with several leading futurists on foresight projects, and starting to publish in futures journals, I can finally call myself an environmental futurist—after just 50 years!

David N. Bengston, environmental futurist for the U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Strategic Foresight and Rapid Response Group, is co-author (with Robert L. Olson) of the AAI Foresight Report “A World on Fire.” E-mail dbengston@fs.fed.us.

Friday, May 1, 2015

Signals: Nature's own GMOs ... and more

Vol. 1, No. 13 | May 5, 2015 | AAI Foresight

Inside Foresight Signals

> Sweet Potatoes Genetically Modified by Nature

> Calculating Cost Efficiency of Plug-in Hybrids

> A World on Fire: New Report from AAI Foresight

> News for the Foresight Community

Sweet Potatoes Genetically Modified by Nature

Nature has taken a hand in modifying itself: Sweet potatoes around the world have been found to contain the “foreign” DNA of the bacterium Agrobacterium, according to researchers at Ghent University and the International Potato Institute.

The scientists searching the genome of sweet potato cultivars used several methods to identify the Agrobacterium sequence, concluding that its presence was not the result of contamination. In fact, it may have been there for thousands of years. The sequence is active in the sweet potato genome, meaning that it offered farmers a positive trait for domestication.

The findings demonstrate that genetic modification is a natural process; humans attempting to master the craft “have the advantage that we know exactly which characteristic we add to the plant,” said Lieve Gheysen, professor of applied molecular genetics and one of the researchers involved in the study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Details: Ghent University.

Reference: Tina Kyndt, Dora Quispe, Hong Zhai, Robert Jarret, Marc Ghislain, Qingchang Liu, Godelieve Gheysen, and Jan F. Kreuze, “The genome of cultivated sweetpotato contains Agrobacterium T-DNAs with expressed genes: an example of a naturally transgenic food crop,” with manuscript tracking number 2014-19685RR in PNAS online Early Edition (EE) in the week of April 20, 2015. The paper will be on the cover of PNAS issue 18.

Signals: agriculture, food, GMO

Calculating Cost Efficiency of Plug-in Hybrids

A question most car buyers would want to know before purchasing a plug-in hybrid vehicle is how much energy (and money) it will save them. The answer is: It’s complicated. How often do you drive, in what kind of conditions, how far, when do you recharge—and just what kind of driver are you, anyway? The answers to these questions create a huge number of parameters for engineers to calculate, often requiring a month of study to resolve.

Researchers at Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden, have now devised a method using a convex optimization algorithm to calculate cost efficiency far more quickly.

“The operating cost of a plug-in hybrid depends on many different variables, such as the way you drive, how you charge the battery, and how far you drive between charges,” says lead researcher Mitra Pourabdollah. Her thesis shows how the algorithm may be used as a tool for researchers to enter in different variables and quickly see their effects. This rapid feedback early in the design stage promises to produce cost savings down the entire production line.

“Dramatic time savings at this stage will allow more opportunities to consider other aspects of the design of the drivetrain and gain a broader perspective,” Pourabdollah says.

Source: Chalmers University of Technology.

Signals: design, hybrid vehicles

A World on Fire: New Report from AAI Foresight

AAI Foresight Inc. is pleased to announce the publication of its second Foresight Report, “A World on Fire” by futurists Robert L. Olson (Institute for Alternative Futures) and David N. Bengston (U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Strategic Foresight and Rapid Response Group).

The report summarizes the findings of a Foresight Panel convened in 2013 to address the growing incidence of wildland fires worldwide and to propose new strategies for managing them. The panel comprised seven foresight professionals—Peter C. Bishop, Jamais Cascio, James Dator, Elizabeth Hand, Michael Marien, Jonathan Peck, and David Rejeski—and two U.S. Forest Service experts on wildfire management—Sarah McCaffrey (Northern Research Station) and John Phipps (Rocky Mountain Research Station).

“The bottom line of the panelists’ thinking is that, as conditions change over time, the existing fire suppression approach will fail across the whole range of plausible future conditions, whereas the emerging fire resilience approach works in all those conditions,” the authors write. They concluded that a new paradigm for wildland fire management is needed that, rather than fighting a war on fire—a war on nature—proceeds from a better relationship with nature. The focus should thus be on resilience rather than combat.

Foresight Reports aim to reveal the methodology of professional futurist analysis and not just predict the future or prescribe actions. “A World on Fire” describes the process that the Foresight Panel undertook and the distinctive characteristics of the scenarios that panelists weighed in their discussions, which took place over a six-month period.

“A World on Fire” is available to Foresight Signals readers as a free PDF download, as is AAI Foresight’s first report, “The Future of Retail Marketing” by Timothy C. Mack. Visit AAI Foresight Reports

Signals: fire management, foresight, futurists, resilience

News for the Foresight Community

• Publication: The Future of Foresight Professionals. The journal Futures has now published “The future of foresight professionals: Results from a global Delphi study” by Jay Gary and Heiko A. von der Gracht. The study drew on the insights of 142 experts participating in three rounds of Delphi polling over three years to produce “a framework to weigh the pros and cons of formalizing a foresight profession.” The study was published online in March and in print this month. Access the report: Science Direct, DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.005

• Book release party: The Great Transition. Retiring Earth Policy Institute President Lester Brown and two of his co-authors, Janet Larsen and Matthew Roney, described key trends in investment in renewable energy technologies at a book release party in Washington, D.C., on April 24. The event was also an opportunity to congratulate Brown and the EPI team on their inspiring work over the years; the Institute will close at the end of June, as reported previously in Foresight Signals. Order The Great Transition. Read The Great Transition Celebration on the Earth Policy Institute blog.

• Textbook: CLA 2.0. An anthology on causal layered analysis is now available in paperback or PDF. Prepared by Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojević, CLA 2.0: Transformative Research in Theory and Practice shows the latest developments in the layered analysis approach to effecting transformation. Details Metafuture.org

• Expert Interview of the Month: Timothy C. Mack. “The only way you can figure out what's going on is to have a network,” AAI Foresight managing principal Tim Mack tells TechCast Global. “It's not just enough to have a few guys that know enough—you really need more than just a bunch of information; you need a bunch of different perspectives to see where the crossovers are.” Read more TechCast Gobal

Send us your signals! News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner, consulting editor.

Want more signals from AAI Foresight? Check out the blog! Log in to add comments.

Foresight Signals is a publication of AAI Foresight

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Managing Principal: Timothy C. Mack

tcmack333@gmail.com | 202-431-1652

Webmaster and IT Consultant: Tom Warner

tomwarner13@gmail.com

Consulting Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner

CynthiaGWagner@gmail.com | Twitter: @CynWag1

A World on Fire: New Report from AAI Foresight

AAI Foresight Inc.

1619 Main Street, #1172

Freeland, WA 98249

http://www.aaiforesight.com/

Contact: Timothy C. Mack, Managing Principal

Email tcmack333@gmail.com Mobile: 202-431-1652

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

A World on Fire: New Report from AAI Foresight

Freeland, WA — May 1, 2015. Megafires are on the rise worldwide, due not only to climate change but also to approaches to combatting fires that paradoxically increase their likelihood, according to a new report published by AAI Foresight Inc. Wildland fire managers need a new paradigm that proceeds from building a better relationship with nature rather than perpetually fighting a war on it. The focus should be on resilience rather than combat.

“A World on Fire” was prepared by futurists Robert L. Olson (Institute for Alternative Futures) and David N. Bengston (U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, StrategicForesight and Rapid Response Group). It is the second report in AAI Foresight Inc.’s Foresight Reports initiative to produce in-depth foresight analysis on significant issues while demonstrating the futurist methodologies used.

The report summarizes the findings of a Foresight Panel convened in 2013 to address the growing incidence of wildland fires worldwide and to propose new strategies for managing them. The panel comprised seven foresight professionals—Peter C. Bishop, Jamais Cascio, James Dator, Elizabeth Hand, Michael Marien, Jonathan Peck, and David Rejeski—and two U.S. Forest Service experts on wildfire management—Sarah McCaffrey (Northern Research Station) and John Phipps (Rocky Mountain Research Station).

Panel facilitators Olson and Bengston outlined three scenarios to provide a framework for the participants’ deliberations:

· In a Decline/Collapse scenario, governmental and economic resources are stretched, forcing communities to rely on self-management of fire issues.

· In a Moderate Growth scenario, climate change and population growth in high-risk areas accelerate, contributing to increased incidence of megafires.

· In a Technological Transformation scenario, progress in renewable energy and manufacturing technologies lead to high growth but more efficiency; society is mobilized to deal with climate change.

“Foresight Reports aim to reveal the methodology of professional futurist analysis and not just predict the future or prescribe actions,” said Cynthia G. Wagner, editor of the series. Wagner is the former editor of The Futurist magazine and serves as AAI Foresight’s consulting editor. “‘A World on Fire’ describes the process that the Foresight Panel undertook and the distinctive characteristics of the scenarios that panelists weighed in their discussions, which took place over a six-month period. The process demonstrated true collaborative thinking.”

AAI Foresight Inc., Experts in Strategic Foresight, provides issues identification and tracking, strategic planning, organizational development, messaging, marketing, technological assessment, and strategic services for a broad range of clients.

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