Vol. 1, No. 9 | March
2, 2015 | AAI Foresight
Inside Foresight Signals
> Wave Energy Gears Up
> Income Inequality Is Unequal in Europe
> “Craft Villages” May Succumb to Globalization
> Battery Challenges in Coming Years: Report from Timothy C. Mack
> Announcements from AAI Foresight
Wave Energy Gears Up
Harvesting the power of the oceans to produce cheap
electricity has long been a dream of green engineering. So far, however, wave
energy has been hampered by the inconsistencies of waves themselves, which vary
in timing and height, making it difficult to create a reliable conversion
system.
Now, a Swedish company, CorPower Ocean, reports that its new
wave system can anticipate the sizes of incoming waves so that it can capture the
entire spectrum of wave energy. As a result, the company claims, it can generate
five times more energy than current state-of the-art systems and for a third of
the cost.
The CorPower system also benefits from a “cascade” gear, designed
at Sweden’s Royal Institute of Technology (KHT), which efficiently converts
linear motion into rotation. Its numerous small pinions and wheels enable the
device to handle heavy loads and high velocities.
The company plans to install a half-scale pilot version of
the technology in November 2015 in cooperation with the multinational electric
utility company Iberdrola.
Signals: electricity,
energy, green engineering
Income Inequality Is Unequal in Europe
The income gap widened in two-thirds of the European Union
between 2006 and 2011, but inequality decreased in at least eight EU countries,
notably Portugal and Greece, according to a study by the University of
Barcelona.
Hardest hit by income inequality were Spain, Cyprus,
Hungary, and Slovakia, but the gap was due mostly to increased unemployment
rather than to changes in income levels among the employed populations. Further
analysis of post-recession data will shed light on the impacts “of precarious forms
of work, for instance part-time jobs, on wage inequality,” researcher Raúl
Ramos said in a press statement.
In many cases, governments have attempted to combat wage
inequality by increasing the minimum wage; however, the real purchasing power
of these wages were reduced by the recession. The study also found that policies
aimed at improving competition helped reduce inequality in annual wages.
Signals: economics,
European Union, inequality
“Craft Villages” May Succumb to Globalization
The twin forces of globalization and urbanization offer both
opportunities and challenges for rural villages. In Vietnam, a system of
specialized “craft villages” has offered rice farmers off-season employment and
security for centuries; while modernized production technologies and newly
opened markets gave them a boost in the 1980s, new threats to their existence
have recently emerged.
Vietnam has thousands of craft villages—more than 500
surrounding Hanoi alone—each specializing in a particular craft, such as
artworks, textiles, woven goods, or religious objects. These ancient village
systems self-organize into related clusters to enhance productivity and labor
resources. They now provide work for almost 20% of the rural population of
working age, with far better incomes than from agricultural work, according to
studies led by Sylvie Fanchette of Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
(IRD).
The craft village system began to flourish with improved
productivity and access to export markets, but new competition quickly entered
in the form of foreign manufacturers seeking cheap labor, the IRD researchers
note. The influx of heavy industry has also led to competition for the
agricultural land that the craft villages rely on.
As the craft villages succumb to globalization and urbanization,
the skills developed and handed down by generations of craft workers may disappear,
as well.
Signals: crafts,
culture, globalization, industrialization, urbanization, Vietnam
Battery Challenges in
Coming Years: Report from Timothy C. Mack
Electric vehicles (EVs) continue to climb in attractiveness,
with the Tesla Model S winning acceleration comparisons hands down. Their
environmental advantages are clear, but the cost and recharge requirements of
automobile batteries continue to stand in the path of broad market acceptance
of EVs.
A good deal of battery science is now proceeding on trial
and error; when those innovations work, the reason why is still often unclear, as
BusinessWeek writer Steve LeVine
explains in his new book, The Powerhouse (Viking, 2015). In fact, it may
be likely that more progress in battery technology can be achieved
incrementally through engineering or manufacturing approaches (or even by lightly
tweaking the chemistry of battery materials), rather than through dramatic new
breakthroughs—which may include unforeseen pitfalls down the road.
Futurists may often become enamored by the promise of a new
technology and its transformative potential while not giving the practical side
of technology adoption enough thought, especially potential operational
obstacles. This is particularly true in the new materials arenas, where
nanotech and composite materials are literally creating new science and the
rules of the game are still being discovered. Read more
Timothy C. Mack is the managing principal of AAI Foresight Inc.
This report was excerpted from the Foresight
Signals Blog. Image: Tesla
Motors, via Facebook.
Signals: batteries,
electric vehicles, materials engineering, transportation
Announcements from AAI Foresight
* New Logo! Thanks
go to graphic artist Lisa Mathias
for our spiffy new logo for this newsletter! Formerly the art director of the
World Future Society, Lisa is also a gifted studio artist. Visit her graphics
portfolio at Lisa Mathias Design
and her fine art portfolio at LisaMathias.com.
* “Foresight Reports”
Publication Project Launched. AAI Foresight has released its first industry
forecast white paper, “The Future of Retail Marketing,” to introduce a series
of semiannual publications for the firm’s clients. The reports, which will
initially be free of charge, will be available to logged-in visitors at the AAI
Foresight Web site.
The goal of Foresight Reports is to demonstrate the
application of sound foresight techniques to improve the analysis of a key issue
affecting our future, be it an economic sector or an ecosystem. The papers will
largely be invited by AAI Foresight or written by members of its established
consulting partners, but we will also consider submissions. Please contact Tim
Mack or Cindy Wagner for details.
Send us your signals!
News about your work and other tips are welcome. Contact Cynthia G. Wagner,
consulting editor.
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